• Specialty HAC RF08.00.13
  • Number of pages 365

Chapter I

1L. Analytical assessment of the potential of innovative means of economic development.

1.2, Current state and dynamics of innovation processes in the Russian economy.

Chapter II. METHODOLOGY OF ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES*

2.1 Study of patterns of continuous-discrete development of innovation processes.

2.2 System principles of analysis and modeling of innovations.

2.3 Economic and mathematical modeling of innovation activity.

Chapter III. CARDINAL EVALUATIONS OF THE PARAMETERS OF INNOVATIVE ACTIVITY AND MECHANISMS OF ITS ORGANIZATION

3.1 Logical foundations and methodological principles

Ф evaluating the effectiveness of innovative projects.

3.2 Analysis of innovative projects according to the principle "efficiency - cost".

3.3 Methods for the formation and evaluation of the portfolio of innovations.

3.4 Dynamic approach to substantiation and implementation of the principles of optimality of innovation activity.

Recommended list of dissertations

  • Development of models and software for information support of regional open decentralized innovation structures 2007, Candidate of Technical Sciences Masloboev, Andrey Vladimirovich

  • Innovative development of economic systems 2009, Doctor of Economic Sciences Tumina, Tatyana Aleksandrovna

  • Intellectual property management in innovation 2011, Doctor of Economics Smirnova, Veronika Removna

  • Development of theoretical foundations and methodology for managing the effectiveness of innovative activities of an industrial enterprise 2006, Doctor of Economics Pererva, Olga Leonidovna

  • Management of innovative investments in enterprises 2005, candidate of economic sciences Lomakin, Irakli Evgenievich

Introduction to the thesis (part of the abstract) on the topic "Modeling the dynamics of innovation processes"

The task of stabilizing the Russian economy, raising production based on modern technologies, taking into account market requirements, dictates the need to intensify innovation, which has a decisive impact on long-term economic growth in its special quality - multifaceted and large-scale development. As a result, the problem of planning and managing innovation activity, and in its entirety, becomes a priority: it ceases to be just a problem of creating such economic mechanisms that would stimulate the implementation of innovation activity, provide a high level of renewal, and contribute to the achievement of tangible economic effects. To a much greater extent, it acquires a shade of goal-setting, turns into a problem of determining goals and means of achieving them, developing a strategy that meets the needs of economic development in the long term. The solution of such a large-scale task requires a critical comprehensive analysis and a critical rethinking of existing approaches, the creation of a holistic concept of innovative analysis, the formation of adequate methods for studying problem situations and making optimal management decisions, and the development of appropriate tools, which led to the choice of the topic and main areas of research.

The chosen research topic involves the study of two major problems, the first of which is to bring together and analyze the facts regarding the role of innovation in ensuring economic development, to identify trends inherent in innovation processes in the Russian economy. The second problem is directly adjacent to the first, but much broader, larger and more complex than it. The essence of this problem is to develop a methodology that would help to consider innovation activity not as a set of disparate elements, acts and processes, but as an integral system, the interacting components of which themselves show how expedient this interaction is and how effectively it is carried out. , and back up this methodology with appropriate analytical calculation methods.

As a dominant factor and the main tool for economic development, innovation has long been the object of close attention and independent study. A large number of theoretical results, confirmed by practice, and their internal unity allow us to talk about the formation of a separate area of ​​economic science - innovation. A significant contribution to the development of the theory and practice of innovation analysis was made by domestic and foreign scientists: L.S. Valdaytsev, A.D. Viktorov, V.P. Vorobyov, S I. Golosovsky, G.M. DobrOB, A V Zavgorodnyaya, P N Zavlin, V. S. Kabakov, A. K. Kazantsev, A. G. Kruglikov, G A. Lakhtin, L. E. Mindeli, A. I. Muraviev, AN-Petrov, V. V. Platonov, V. A. Pokroveky, K. F. Puzynya, A. A. Rumyantsev, D. V. Sokolov, A. B. Titov, Yu. Vyakovets, R.Akoff, I.Ansoff, EKwaid, J. Martino, E.Mansfield, M.Porter, E Rogers, B Santo, B.Twiss, J.Forrester, R.Foster, W.Hartman, K.Holt, Y .Schumpeter, R. Eire and others. They put forward and substantiated the position that has acquired a conceptual character that innovations in the modern economy form the basis of the competitiveness of firms, industries, countries, allowing them to win the fight for markets through the development of new x, more attractive products for consumers or more economical and efficient technologies for their production, have proved that it is innovations as a result of completed scientific research and development that largely determine the overall scientific and technological progress. Long-term experience of countries with developed market relations confirms the validity of these provisions, shows the effectiveness innovative methods management, creating in the economy the internal energy of effective growth and ensuring its sustainable development in the long term.

At the same time, we have to state the following fact: despite the fact that the current situation provides opportunities for the implementation of innovative activity, there are still very few economic entities in the Russian economy that are fully engaged in innovative entrepreneurial activity. The current state of affairs is largely due to the current state of the Russian economy, characterized by an investment crisis, degradation of scientific and technical and depletion of human resources, which gave rise to an innovation crisis, a manifestation of which is the low innovative activity of domestic enterprises. technical policy and errors in the "technology" of its implementation, the specifics of the implementation of innovation in a directive controlled economy.

In a planned economy, state and social influence was considered the main factor in development; the role of a regulator of innovation activity was performed by a mechanism of a mobilization-compulsory type, inducing state scientific organizations to the implementation of research and development, and state-owned enterprises - to the introduction of new methods and productions. The mechanism of “pushing” innovations, smoothed over for decades, gave government bodies tangible leverage in the scientific and technical sphere, and provided support and guaranteed funding to scientific organizations. And as long as this mechanism functioned successfully within the existing political and economic system, this was expressed in scientific and technological progress and constant innovative activity of enterprises.

The transformations that began in the 1990s led to the destruction of the administrative-command system for organizing innovation activity, which turned out to be incompatible with the new economic conditions, and a new system adequate to the changed conditions was never created. In addition, the subjective disregard for the operation of economic laws, which has developed over the years of totalitarian development, has largely deprived the analytical justifications for decisions and financial calculations of their proper representativeness, led to the fact that an illusion of cheapness has developed in society. scientific results and full government control over their implementation. The monopoly position of the majority of commodity producers and the lack of competition also did not contribute to the formation of the natural susceptibility of economic entities to innovation. Radical, but not always consistent, reforms intensified the crisis in the Russian economy, resulting in a deep decline in production, the destruction of economic ties, and a sharp decline in investment and innovation activity.

The state of innovation activity is a symptomatic indicator characterizing the state of society as a whole and its economy. A deep, protracted crisis in the innovation sphere encourages us to analyze the causes of this phenomenon and look for ways to eliminate them. In our opinion, the above-mentioned traditionally cited arguments are just one aspect that determines the low innovative activity of enterprises. An equally significant reason for the current state of affairs is the shortcomings of the scientific and methodological side of the justification of managerial decisions, associated with the imperfection of systemic ideas about the economy, its functioning, development, and innovation as the main means of this development. The diversity, complexity and increasing volume of the problems of effective development facing the economy require the provision of a general focus, their coordination and mutual coordination, which can be achieved within the framework of a systematic approach that determines not only new tasks, but also "... the nature of all management activities, scientific, technical , the technological and organizational improvement of which is due to the very nature and state of modern production.

From positions system analysis Each economic system is a complex combination of various components: material, resource, personnel, information, infrastructure, and its functioning is an interweaving of the processes of operation, use, replenishment, and development of these components. At the same time, all of these processes occur against the backdrop of a dynamic, constantly changing external environment and are the result of interaction with the external environment. The fundamental condition for the viability of any complex system is balance, which is achievable only when each of its components occupies a corresponding “niche”, acquires a state that, to the maximum extent possible, contributes to the effective funuction of the system as a whole. These circumstances significantly complicate all aspects of managing economic systems without exception and make it practically unpromising to make decisions aimed at their “element-by-element” improvement. Methods for optimizing decisions in planning and managing the development of economic systems must take into account the structural complexity of these systems, the interaction and mutual conditionality of their individual components; otherwise, the effectiveness of decisions related to the improvement and development of individual elements will inevitably turn out to be lower than expected due to the lack of preparation for the implementation of these decisions of other components.

Another group of scientific and methodological disadvantages of innovation planning, which is also directly related to the imperfection of systemic ideas, is that in setting the tasks of managing innovation, the focus is traditionally focused on its “momentary” effects and is directly associated only with an increase in profits directly due to the development " novelty goods” or more economical production technologies. However, the economic value of innovation is multifaceted and is not limited to increasing profitability, reducing costs and expanding the scale of the business. Moreover, declaring the growth of current profit as the only goal of innovation activity can significantly narrow the range of possible directions and ways for the development of the economic system.

Many problems of innovation management are also the result of insufficient attention to the temporal aspects of the functioning of economic systems, when dynamic characteristics development processes of individual components and their impact on the state of other components and the economic system as a whole. A holistic view of the functioning of the economic system, the most promising directions of its development and the dynamic characteristics of this development can be obtained using appropriate tools, primarily methods of economic and mathematical modeling and system dynamics.

This dissertation work is devoted to the solution of the formulated problems, the purpose of which is to create a holistic concept for the study of innovative processes, to develop methods of analysis, justification and decision-making in the management of innovative activities.

The subject of the dissertation research is theoretical, methodological, methodological and practical problems of optimizing the process of innovation management based on the application of a systematic approach and economic and mathematical modeling of innovation processes.

The object of study is economic systems (mainly manufacturing enterprises) that innovate, plan and carry out innovative activities to achieve the goals of long-term stable functioning and effective growth.

The formulation of the goal, the selection of the subject and object of research make it possible to concretize the above-mentioned problems of studying innovative activity to the following list of the main tasks put forward and solved in the dissertation:

To systematize and summarize the provisions concerning the role of innovation in the evolution of various economic systems:

Analyze the current state and dynamics of innovation processes in the Russian economy, identify their main trends;

Investigate the general patterns of implementation of innovative activities and development of innovative processes;

To substantiate the methodological principles of modeling innovation processes, including the choice of critical aspects of modeling, to create an appropriate model apparatus;

Build economic and mathematical models of innovation, fully and adequately reflecting its main patterns;

To work out methodological approaches to the classification, ordering and ranking of innovations based on the study of the properties of their models;

Develop methods for analytical substantiation of decisions on the management of innovation activities;

Build models of portfolio analysis of innovation activity, which end with the positioning of the innovation portfolio in a multidimensional space described by the axes of efficiency, cost, quantitative risk assessment and time;

Form and substantiate the principles of a dynamic approach to the analysis and implementation of optimal management decisions.

The theoretical and methodological basis for solving the problems put forward was the results of fundamental and applied research in the field of managing socio-economic systems and their development processes, motivating the economic behavior of economic entities, the main provisions of system analysis and the theory of dynamic systems, the theory of functions and functional analysis, the methodology of mathematical modeling of economic processes: dominant Pareto analysis, production function theory, game theory, methods of practical use of simulation results. In terms of its formulation and implementation, the study carried out has a theoretical, scientific and methodological character. The scientific novelty of the results obtained is determined by the fact that in the study:

The concept of conducting analytical studies of the potential of innovative means of developing economic systems at various levels of the structural hierarchy has been developed and implemented; the sphere of innovative activity is presented on the scale of society and brought to the level of individual individuals;

Regularities of discrete-continuous development of innovative processes are revealed; the possibilities of using the mathematical theory of catastrophes for modeling innovative processes based on the use of improving, developing and basic innovations have been proved and implemented;

A systematic scientific and methodological approach to modeling the dynamics of innovation processes has been formed based on the coordination and cumulative use of the potentials of an economic agent and innovations; a methodology for studying potentials was developed by aggregating logical, qualitative and quantitative methods; the means of innovative development are ranked by introducing a lexigraphic order on the set of innovations;

The terminology and conceptual apparatus of a formalized multidimensional description of an economic agent as a subject of innovative activity has been unified; the main operational means of modeling the mechanism for implementing innovation and the functioning of an economic agent are determined, including an identification model and a situation model;

An analytical model of innovations has been built in the form of a differential equation, reflecting the cumulative nature of innovation processes; based on the analysis of the model and the properties of its solutions (logistic curves), a method was proposed and estimates were made of the temporary reserves of the competitiveness of innovations, which determine their parallel and serial conjugation;

A methodology has been developed for constructing cardinal assessments of innovation parameters: efficiency as a complex characteristic of the realization of the potential of innovation using methods for structuring the goals of an economic agent and technology of Analysis of the operating environment, cost of innovative projects and risk;

The ratio of pure dominance on the set of innovative projects is introduced, generalized in terms of mixed dominance in the formation of a portfolio of innovations and dominance by probability in decision-making, taking into account uncertainty and risk factors; a graphical interpretation of the introduced principles of optimality is presented;

A game-theoretic approach to the formation of a portfolio of innovative projects is proposed; methodological principles for its implementation have been developed, expressed in recommendations and analytical calculation formulas for substantiating the optimal size and structural proportions of the portfolio;

The concept of dynamic efficiency of innovative projects is substantiated and methods for its evaluation are developed; the technology of Analysis of the functioning environment has been developed for a dynamic situation, taking into account the time factor;

The Pareto optimal ™ sign is transformed into an analysis of development trajectories; developed the principle of optimality of dynamic development based on the analysis of the "end defect" vector; the applicability of the principles of system dynamics to the analysis of innovative processes is substantiated.

The practical significance of the study is due to the fact that, according to analysts, the majority of Russian enterprises have practically exhausted the reserves of the "survival" type. The need to adapt to tougher competition comes to the fore, which increases attention to the problems of strategic management and innovation as the dominant factor in stable operation and effective growth. The latter, in turn, requires a theoretical, scientific and methodological substantiation of the decisions made and adequate computational and analytical support.

The structure and logic of the presentation of research materials is subject to the content of the tasks put forward. In general, it is represented by an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion and a bibliography.

Similar theses in the specialty "Mathematical and instrumental methods of economics", 08.00.13 HAC code

  • Management of the effective development of industrial enterprises in the context of the development of innovations: theory, methodology, practice 2010, Doctor of Economic Sciences Barmuta, Karine Aleksandrovna

  • Formation of a portfolio of projects of innovative-active enterprises 2011, Candidate of Economic Sciences Demchenko, Alexey Olegovich

  • Tools for planning innovative and technological development of an industrial enterprise 2012, candidate of economic sciences Pishko, Nadezhda Vyacheslavovna

  • Development of a mechanism for the formation of a portfolio of managerial innovations at the enterprises of the construction industry 2010, candidate of economic sciences Burkov, Roman Yurievich

  • Investment Strategies for Innovation Management 2002, candidate of economic sciences Mikhno, Vitaly Valentinovich

Dissertation conclusion on the topic "Mathematical and instrumental methods of economics", Silkina, Galina Yurievna

The conclusions drawn from the general theoretical provisions of system analysis find their confirmation in the realities of Russian economic reality. splitting factor

The splitting factor is small, continuity is not broken, evolutionary development occurs normal factor splitting factor y

The splitting factor is large, / the state of the system changes / abruptly, it moves to a new level of development normal factor

Fig.2.5. Simulation of scientific and technological progress

The general state of the Russian economy is such that innovation today is possible only with a low amount of required investment, minimal risk and a short payback period. These properties are characteristic of small consumer-oriented product innovations ( new form old, new elements in the old, new equipment of old elements), minor modernization of production technologies (new technology for consuming the old), improvement of organizational forms and management mechanisms. As far as the full cycle of innovation activity is concerned, its state is characterized by the data of TsISN (Table 2.5).

Explanations for Table 2.5: the public sector includes organizations of ministries and departments that ensure government management and meet the needs of society as a whole; non-profit organizations wholly or mainly funded and controlled by the state. To the sector higher education includes universities and other higher educational institutions, regardless of funding sources and legal status, as well as research institutes, experimental stations, clinics under their control or associated with them. The business sector includes all organizations and enterprises whose activities are related to the production of products or services for the purpose of sale. The private non-profit sector consists of private organizations that do not aim to make a profit (professional societies, public organizations)

CONCLUSION

The completed dissertation research is subordinated to the development of an actual problem of economic theory and economic practice to create a holistic concept of innovative analysis. His key idea is to use the potential of system analysis and mathematical modeling to design methods for studying problem situations and making optimal management decisions, developing their computational and analytical support.

In general, the study is structured in such a way that the functioning of any economic system is considered unfolding in time and space and subject to the achievement of strategic goals associated with the ideas of balance, stability and development. It is substantiated that the development of each economic system is intensive in nature and innovative in content economic growth, and innovation is the dominant factor in this development, regardless of the position of the system in the political and economic hierarchy, the prevailing form of ownership, and the specific organizational structure. At the same time, at each level of the economic and political hierarchy, innovation activity has its own specifics, determined by the targets, the focus and scale of the tasks being solved, as well as a set of tools for their solution, which are predominantly inherent in a particular economic system.

Thus, at the level of national economies, the content of innovation activities is largely institutional innovations aimed at the formation of a unified state policy, in which the central place is occupied by the scientific and innovative component, capable of leading the economic development of the country. In the most general view the main strategic goal of the state scientific and innovation policy is to create conditions for the accumulation and enrichment of scientific knowledge, their speedy implementation in modern products and technologies. It is structured into a system of goals and implemented as a set of measures designed to initiate, coordinate, improve the efficiency of innovative activities of economic entities aggregated into the national economy. The importance of scientific and innovative activities at the level of national economies is manifested, first of all, in their impact on macroeconomic indicators: according to the data given in of which 28% are determined directly by technical progress - the coincidence of a new technological base and new opportunities for workers.

At the regional level, innovative activity is also mainly carried out in the form of institutional innovations aimed at ensuring sustainable growth in regional budget revenues, processes of direct regulation of life support, and improving the quality of life of the population of the region. The prerequisite for this area of ​​innovation is the strengthening of the economic independence of the regions, the development of local self-government, including the presence of legislative bodies that adopt regulations within their competence, and the content is a system of organizational, economic and legal measures aimed at creating a favorable investment environment, creating mechanisms that promote the use of scientific, technical and production capabilities, the development of entrepreneurship in the region.

Innovative activity is in a special, distinguished position in relation to any other activity related to the functioning of each economic system: it forms the basis of the competitiveness of countries, regions, enterprises and firms, and its importance increases with the growth of the system's independence: the more independent the economic system is , the more severe conditions it has to act. In this sense, individual enterprises are the most vulnerable: limited resources, the state of the material and technical base, and market pressure create rather difficult conditions for their functioning.

The specifics of the current state of the general economic situation, the transition of world development to the post-industrial, information age allow us to talk about the emergence of a new form of competition between enterprises. The focus is not on competition in the prices of products and their quality, but on competition derived from the introduction of new products, new technologies, new types and sources of resources, new forms of organizing production and selling products. This competition, based not on the current, but on the future states of enterprises, threatens not high profits, but their very existence, at the same time being the main factor in any economic situation, the main incentive for the desire for renewal and improvement. The content of the innovative activity of enterprises is the development and implementation of a system of measures aimed at developing new types or modifying previously produced products (product - innovation), improving production technologies (process - innovation), creating conditions for better access to resources, protecting and strengthening market positions , search for new forms of cooperation with economic partners (market innovations). The listed types of innovations in their interaction, mutual influence and conditionality contribute to the solution of global problems of the sustainable functioning of the enterprise and the strategic tasks of its effective growth.

All that has been said about enterprises is also largely true for individual individuals who “produce” and realize their labor of a certain quality. At the same time, the motivation for the innovative activity of individual individuals is in many respects similar to the motives that encourage enterprises and firms to continuously improve and update the list of products and technologies used; and direct analogies can be drawn in describing the ways in which individuals and enterprises innovate. The innovations carried out by each separate individual may be very diverse in form and substance; however, they allow for grouping in a manner similar to what is traditionally done for enterprises. So, if we draw parallels between an enterprise and a specific individual who supplies their professionalism to the labor market, then the acquisition of new knowledge, experience and skills can serve as an analogue of product innovations, which allows bringing personal professional work in line with market requirements, expanding the scope of existing knowledge and experience. Analogues of technological innovations are new methods of combining existing knowledge and experience, allowing to obtain qualitatively new results in personal professional activities. Market innovation is a search for new forms of self-realization, new areas of application of one's own strengths and knowledge.

Emphasizing the positive role of innovation in economic development, it must be borne in mind that it is one of the factors that upset the balance within the economic system. Improved and newly developed products, modernized and new technologies, organizational forms change the face of the economic system, creating new activities and eliminating old ones. This process of "creative destruction" i.e. continuous renewal of production activity, was described by J. Schumpeter, who considered his theory the most adequate interpretation of the economic process, especially in the era of big business.

As a starting point for his analysis, J. Schumpeter took the fact that each economic system initially functions within the framework of a competitive equilibrium: prices for manufactured products are set at an average cost, profits are zero, there is no rate, economic life rotates in a circle, constantly repeating itself.

F The invasion of innovation radically changes the situation: innovation requires significant funds, which leads to a high demand for credit and the emergence of interest. The credit is necessary for the economic entities that make up the system in order to respond to the changes that have occurred in the system, to adapt to them. The latter take steps to penetrate into new areas, master new methods and methods of action in order to again achieve balance in the system, but at a qualitatively new level. Together, these efforts are bringing the economic system to a new stage of development, the situation is stabilizing, and the process of "creative destruction" is repeated again. Thus, innovation activity brings the economic system out of equilibrium and it also returns it to equilibrium, but at a new, higher level. The development of the economic system is uneven, ups are accompanied by downs, the depth of which is proportional to the speed of forward movement.

All of the above determines the priority importance of the task of planning and managing innovation activities. The planning of innovation activity, coordination and orderly distribution in time and space will make it possible to subordinate it to the achievement of the strategic goals of the economic system, to prevent excessive upsurges at one point in time and downturns at others, i.e. will make the implementation of innovation activity and the development of the economic system regulated and manageable processes. Innovation management is also necessary because the system that performs oscillatory movements around a certain axis, the highway, can easily get out of this state, at any moment move away from the main direction, significantly worsen the quality of its functioning and reach a crisis.

At the same time, the problem of innovation activity management arises in its entirety. It ceases to be just a task of creating such economic mechanisms that would stimulate the implementation of innovative activity, provide a high level of renewal, and contribute to the achievement of tangible economic effects. achievements, development of a strategy that meets the needs of the development of the economic system in the long term.

The solution of such a large-scale problem required a conceptual approach, the study of the general patterns of innovation activity based on the aggregation of logical, qualitative and quantitative research methods. The identification of general patterns is one of the main problems not only in theoretical research, but also in solving practical problems, since the management of innovation activity should be based, first of all, on knowledge of the laws of development and the principles of its implementation. This determines the importance of building both conceptual, qualitative models and formalized mathematical representations, without which science-based management is practically impossible.

Innovative activity - the result of the process of cognition, embodied in the form of new products, new technology, new methods and approaches to the organization of economic activity, is an externally conditioned and internally generated process of a continuously-discrete nature: being continuous, it is carried out in the form of the implementation of individual innovations. Each individual innovation is also a process, it is a complex dynamic system with a spatio-temporal structure; it goes through a number of stages in its development: the stages of origin, invention, implementation, distribution, growth, growth retardation and liquidation, it has specific features, the most important of which are timeliness and cumulative nature. Timeliness is the essence of innovation, which manifests itself in the development of the right technology or the appearance of the right product in the right market at the right time. The cumulative nature of innovation is due to the fact that the viability and results of the implementation of innovation depend on the entire history of its development, starting from the stage of inception, at which its potential is formed, interpreted as the degree of novelty and the possibility of further improvement. The potential of innovation, in turn, directly affects the spatial structure of individual innovations and the innovation process as a whole, the configuration of innovation dissemination processes. With the innovation process economic theory connects the phenomenon of diffusion, which is traditionally presented in two main forms. As one of the forms of diffusion, its distribution and large-scale use in those areas for which the innovation was originally intended are considered; the second form of diffusion is the transfer of technology to other areas with the appropriate changes and additions. The study revealed another form of diffusion based on the fact that innovation aimed at improving some aspect of the economic system inevitably captures other aspects: innovations interact with each other in products, technological processes and organizational and management systems, mutually conditioning and complementing each other. It has been established that the higher the potential of innovation, the wider the scope of its application and impact on the functioning of the economic system; conversely, the larger the phenomenon of diffusion, the greater the cumulative economic effect of innovation - the practical realization of its potential.

Like any process of a cumulative nature, innovation is quite adequately displayed by the characteristic S - shaped logistic curve, which is a logical model of the innovation mechanism. The main concepts that made it possible to describe the functioning of economic systems and innovative processes that ensure their development at the logical and qualitative levels are the concepts of convergence and divergence of state parameters. They can be interpreted as external manifestations of internal processes of growth and development associated with a combination of factors of stability and instability of any dynamic system, including the economic one. The “calm”, evolutionary stage of the functioning of the economic system is characterized by the presence of mechanisms that stabilize its state; the state of the system is stable: there are reliable sources of resources, proven technologies, stable markets; the economic system constantly converges to this state, eliminating deviations from it. Over time, as a result of a continuous change in the operating conditions, a quantitative change in the parameters of the external environment and / or the system, its resistance to disturbances weakens, a break in gradualness occurs (in biology, such situations are called a breakdown in adaptation), there comes a moment when prerequisites arise for a qualitative change in the state of the system , i.e. implementation of the next innovation.

Each innovation, being a dynamic system, also does not remain unchanged throughout its development. Thus, at the initial stages of the process of existence of innovation (at the stages of distribution and growth), all efforts are focused on how to maximize the use of the results of innovation, and constitute, in the terminology of general systems theory, a normal factor in its development. However, the implementation of innovation does not mean that innovation activity is completely stopped. On the contrary, constant work should be carried out to modernize manufactured products, improve production and organizational technologies in the form of implementing improving and developing innovations. Together, these types of activities constitute (in the same terminology of system analysis and catastrophe theory) a splitting factor in the development of innovation, affecting the process of its implementation and to a certain extent changing the shape of the logistic curve, but as long as the splitting factor is small, the dominant impact on development innovation is exerted by normal factors, and it is continuous, evolutionary. Over time, the action of splitting factors intensifies: as an innovation approaches its technological limit, the set of small, improving innovations is exhausted; at the same time, as a result of the development of science, new original ideas, design principles, and technical solutions arise; phenomena of divergence are growing, creating the necessary diversity as a potential source of renewal. When the splitting factor reaches a certain critical, threshold value, another innovation is implemented, which raises the economic system to a qualitatively new level of functioning. analysis and mathematical theory of catastrophes, however, the significance of the catastrophic interpretation of the processes of growth and development of economic systems is not limited to this confirmation. A clear analogy that can be traced between the fundamental provisions of innovative analysis and models of the mathematical theory of catastrophes seems to be very promising, since it opens up new possibilities for formalizing the concept of innovative development of economic systems. In particular, the combination of normal and splitting factors is fruitfully modeled by an elementary catastrophe of the “assembly” type. One of the main problems in the practical application of this catastrophe model is the identification of a pair of main factors, the change of which determines jump transitions in the development of the system. The study found that in an innovation analysis, it is natural to take efforts to achieve tangible economic effects using established methods of action as a normal factor in the development of innovation; the role of the splitting factor is played by novelty, originality of the idea, design principle, etc. - all that is aggregated in the concept of innovation potential. The model apparatus of the theory of catastrophes makes it possible to identify combinations of normal and splitting factors that ensure evolutionary development and cause abrupt transitions, to determine the critical values ​​of these parameters that change the nature of development. It is obvious that further research in the indicated direction will require a detailed study of the potential of innovation, the formation of an appropriate conceptual apparatus, the identification of factors influencing the magnitude of the potential, the choice of valid variables that fully and adequately reflect its state. Certain steps to explore the potential of innovation and the application of this concept to innovation analysis are made in this dissertation work; in particular, the concept of innovation potential is the basis for the constructed classification of the means of innovative development and their ranking. This choice is justified by the following argument: it is the potential of innovation that determines the expected effect from its implementation, which, in turn, justifies its implementation.

The value of the performed logical and qualitative studies of innovative processes lies not only in the fact that they provide the fundamental possibility of formalized descriptions, represent a methodological approximation to rigorous mathematical models, and serve as a theoretical basis for constructing analytical models and their practical use. The qualitative characteristics of the object under study, otherwise called nominal or classification, make it possible to divide the objects under study into groups and classify them. Comprehensive systematization of innovations makes it possible to build ordinal characteristics, arrange and rank them, which, in turn, makes it possible to compare a particular type of innovation with one or another innovation strategy and design appropriate mechanisms for managing innovation activity.

Further study of innovative activity was carried out on the basis of its economic and mathematical model, built taking into account the identified patterns, the study of the properties of this model and its solutions. Since innovation activity is an externally conditioned and internally generated process, its model includes a formalized description of the subject of innovation activity and the actual mechanism of innovation. The subject of innovation activity is formalized in the concept of an economic agent - the central component of the methodology for modeling economic systems. Economic agents in the dissertation are individuals or groups of individuals, united into a whole by a commonality of economic goals and modes of action; they are elementary acting units capable of making independent decisions. This definition includes all business entities operating at the microeconomic level: industrial and agricultural enterprises, service enterprises, scientific organizations and innovative firms, and individual citizens. The choice of the microeconomic level is due to the fact that at the level of national and regional economies, in general, the problems of not so much innovation management as scientific and technological progress are solved. Specific decisions regarding the implementation of innovative activities are made at the enterprise level; they are tied to the practical needs of the initiators of innovative activities and are aimed at using innovations to achieve the goals of enterprises, i.e. the innovation process is realized directly through the activities of enterprises and firms.

A formalized description of an economic agent is subdivided into a description of its internal state - an identification model that makes it possible to single it out as an independent unit of observation and study, and a model of the environment or a situation model. The internal state of an economic agent is completely determined by the following information: w(t) =(x(t)yy(t),a(t^j, where is the totality of resources used, v(V) 67(?)c R+ is output (R+ product space),) e A(t) ~ (f),.,at(7)) - applied technologies. At the same time, the concepts of "products" and "technologies" were interpreted as generally as possible: products are everything that can be distinguished and identified as a separate entity, together with methods for fixing and measuring them; these include not only the material results of human activity and nature, but also services, types of labor, information; technologies - all ways of processing resources into finished products. ny module general description an economic agent whose dynamic model of functioning determines, in accordance with the applied control u(t), a finite or infinite sequence, possibly - a development trajectory in the terminology of systems theory.

The factor that determines the necessity and ensures the possibility of this development is the factor of the external environment; the destruction of the connection of an economic agent with the external environment leads to its degradation and destruction as an integral system, as a result of which the characteristics of the external environment are included in the complete formalized description of the economic agent. The interaction of an economic agent and the external environment is a situation of non-antagonistic conflict, in which the environment is considered as a carrier of information and various disturbances as a potential source of a new one, and the task of an economic agent is to make rational management decisions that are adequate to these influences. The situation model, in contrast to the identification module, contains values ​​that are exogenous for an economic agent; they must be anatized under various assumptions about their change, but cannot be purposefully changed. The most important structural feature of the external environment (a kind of reflection of which is the structure of an economic agent) is a hierarchy that combines

The metaset is an identification state: J=o or its decomposability into separate subsystems with the rank ordering of the latter according to the degree of interaction and mutual influence. In the description of the environment of an economic agent, a set of parameters q\(t) is distinguished, which characterizes the block of the economy, which is made up of equal economic agents that equally affect the possible states of each other, and a set of parameters qiiO, reflecting the upper level (state, political, scientific) of the environment. situation: = ® the current state of the economic agent is determined by the metaset (\v(t^,q(tjjf; the choice of the description components is determined by the situation that has practical significance: all of them can be the object of innovation. In addition to the applied value: a control system focused on the use of economic and mathematical methods should be based on the mathematical identification of the objects under study, the construction of a formalized description of the functioning of an economic agent has a general theoretical value, it works to solve the already identified problem of forming a universal conceptual and model apparatus.

In accordance with its mission and a dynamically changing external environment, an economic agent develops goals for obtaining sustainable profits, gaining competitive advantages, and stable operation in the long term, which makes it possible to assess its current state (at least in the first approximation) by the amount of profit f(t) = f(w(t),q(ty). The dynamism of functioning and, as a consequence, the description of an economic agent necessitates a dynamic approach to the formation of a criterion for the quality of its functioning in the long term. As such a dynamic criterion, one can choose cumulative profit for the period under consideration as the sum profit by years or the amount of profit for the same period, taken with the appropriate discount factor; the latter criterion allows natural extension to infinite trajectories: In models without discounting, the maximization of the profit growth rate is considered as a dynamic target functional .

As for the mechanism of innovation itself, its model is built taking into account the following considerations: it must be meaningful in order to describe the process of implementing innovation, and at the same time as simple as the logic of this process allows so as not to depend on specific variants of innovations; the latter is necessary for the analysis and comparison of a wide class of innovations. It should reflect the most essential properties of innovations; the most important of them is the cumulative nature of the process of its development, which is modeled by the dz differential equation -- = kz(b - z) , where t is the time, z ~z(i) is the redt result (effect) of innovation, k>0 is a positive constant (scale parameter), which characterizes the average rate of diffusion of innovation, b is a positive constant that limits the result of innovation from above (the maximum value of z); the minimum effect of innovation is assumed to be zero. Modeling the mechanism of innovation by a differential equation seems to be quite promising from the point of view of further research into innovation activity and the development of an analytical justification for managerial decisions. In particular, this makes it possible to build and study transient processes that take an economic agent out of a stable state and return the economic system to a state of equilibrium.

At the same time, this differential equation has a more general meaning than an analytical description of the innovation mechanism. As noted in , the logistic S - shaped curve describing the life cycle of each individual innovation can be considered as a model of the dynamics of various cumulative quantities and therefore the differential equation that defines it is more general than the mathematical description of the innovation mechanism. It can be considered as a quantitative expression of the operation of the law of mutual transition of quantitative and qualitative changes in relation to cumulative processes, including innovative ones. The fact that it is integrated explicitly and its solution has the form

Schematically, the process of implementing sequential innovations is depicted as a set of logistic curves that continue each other, mutual arrangement which may be different. At the same time, each family of curves corresponds to a graph of total costs - profit, obtained by algebraic addition of graphs corresponding to individual innovations. In terms of the combination of logistic curves, the moment most favorable for the start of the next innovation is determined by the inflection point of the logistic curve, which is also confirmed by the provisions of the mathematical theory of catastrophes: “... at the inflection point, the growth curve begins to jump and spin. "one. The coordinates of the inflection point Zq) are found by doubly differentiating the function z(t):

In c / h b q \u003d -, Zq \u003d z (o) \u003d -\u003e m * e * directly depend on the parameter e>, characterize

1 Price D de Solla. Small science, big science // Science about science. Moscow: Progress, 1966, p. 304 see the effect of innovation. Thus, the moment that is most favorable for the start of the next innovation can be tracked by comparing the effect z(t) already achieved by the time t with the value Zq - ^ if z(t) « ^, then the innovation is still quite far from the limit of its capabilities; as z(t) and Zq approach each other, the moment of “start” of the next innovation approaches. Perhaps more preferable for innovation, which is characterized by a high degree of external and internal uncertainty of its results, are not point, but interval estimates of the initialization time of the next innovation. The period of time favorable for the start of the next innovation can be found as the interval between the points of maximum curvature of the logistic curve; the earliest and latest start times for the next innovation are also calculated analytically up to the quality of the information that identifies the model parameters. The length of this gap can serve as a temporary measure of the innovation's competitiveness. In practice, innovation competitiveness reserve can also be calculated as the distance along the ordinate between the inflection points of two successive logistic curves, which is completely determined by the parameter b, as a result of which the value of b is interpreted as a quantitative measure of the qualitative leap caused by innovation; the problem of determining the value of b is solved using adequate quantitative methods.

The potential effect of innovation was assessed in the study from the standpoint of the following approach: "... the overall economic effect of the application of innovations is characterized by their value, which, in turn, is determined by the contribution of innovations to the total result of the functioning of the economic system" . Being based on the methodological principles of system analysis, this approach proceeds from the global goal of an economic agent, allows us to consider its functioning from a unified standpoint, based on the ultimate goal, choose development paths and pose problems ultimately aimed at realizing its mission. The mission of an economic entity establishes the most common tasks for the solution of which any commercial system is formed, functions and develops; it is it that serves as the starting point for concretizing the goals expressed in operational terms, their structuring and highlighting the logical links “goals - means to achieve goals”. With regard to the problem of ensuring the effective growth of an economic entity and obtaining sustainable profits, as the main directions of action in accordance with the constructed model of an economic agent, the objective function of which has the form: /(/) = f(w(t),q(t)), increasing the efficiency of production activities (description element \v(t)) and improving its interaction with the external environment (element q(t)). These fairly general goals are specified into more detailed goals of the next level of their hierarchical system in accordance with the structure of the metasets w(t) = (x(t),y(t),a(t)^ and q(t) = ("^( f), ^ The co-process of detailing has been brought to the level of tasks that differ from the general goals in the accuracy of their formulations and the possibility of quantitative assessments of the degree of their implementation. Weight processing of the results of performing individual tasks at the lower level of the hierarchical system of goals and subsequent aggregation of the results of processing each level when moving along the corresponding branches of the goal tree from its base to the top and allows you to evaluate the absolute economic efficiency of innovation as its contribution to the achievement of the global goal of stable operation and effective development.

The cumulative effect of the innovation implementation is multifaceted and is determined by its influence on all components of the economic agent model; a kind of "inventory" of certain types of effects, their conceptual identification, meaningful description, quantitative measurement or evaluation, provide the necessary tools for making an optimal management decision based on the available information array. An innovative project can be described by a set of effects E2,.7 Em), each of which is an additive or multiplicative function of individual technical and technological parameters, but is measured in its own units, and therefore individual types of effects cannot be summed up purely mechanically. The choice of the optimal management decision is usually carried out using the cost-profit or cost-effectiveness methods. When implementing the first of these approaches, all types of effects are aggregated into one compound value of profit using conversion factors, the dimension of which should be such that individual terms would be expressed in comparable units of measurement. The aggregate effect of innovation can also be found by the generalized formula: potential effect according to the vector quality criterion.

The division of the total potential effect of an innovative project into separate components is of fundamental importance not only for its quantitative assessment. It allows you to refine the differential equation that models the life cycle of innovation in fa, the system of differential equations -- = kizi (D- - z -z = 1, m, where dt function zt(t) describes the dynamics of the i-th type effect, and explore it solutions - families of logistic curves, including assuming different scale parameters k( for different types of effects. The latter is quite consistent with one of the basic principles of system dynamics, the applicability of which to the analysis of innovative projects is substantiated in the dissertation. Further development of the study in the indicated direction is seen in the fact that the dynamics of each type of effect is determined not only by its own achieved level, but also depends on other types of effects: the value needs to be clarified.

When evaluating the potential effect of an innovation, it is necessary to use a large number of indicators, none of which is a determining criterion for the success or failure of an innovation project. And even combining certain types of effects into one aggregate quality indicator, which in itself involves significant methodological, technical and computational difficulties, does not fully reflect the possible inefficiency of the economic agent, reveals the reasons for such inefficiency and indicates specific ways to overcome it. A relatively new direction in the study of the effectiveness of the functioning of economic agents turned out to be a fruitful method for analyzing innovative activity - the technology of Analysis of the functioning environment, which absorbed the main provisions and results of system analysis, mathematical economics, and operations research. The essence of this approach is that the activity of each economic agent is evaluated not in isolation, but within the economic block, the components of which economic agents are characterized by cost-output vectors: v = - .у(0/ efficient productions curl up, forming an effective hypersurface (front) in the space of the corresponding dimension, the shape of which is determined by the set of technologies available to the entire community of economic agents; this way of representing efficient productions is traditionally accepted in mathematical economics; it develops the idea of ​​production functions and describes the production as broadly as possible. The Operational Environment Analysis model is described as a non-linear optimization problem, which consists in maximizing the efficiency of an economic agent, provided that similar assessments of the performance of other economic entities their agents do not exceed the established values. The measure of efficiency (target functional) in this problem is the ratio of the weighted sum of the output parameters to the weighted sum of the input parameters (i.e., the ratio of the result to the costs). The optimal value of the functional is used as a generalized measure of the production efficiency of a given economic agent.

The greatest value of the method of Analysis of the functioning environment, from the point of view of its application in the study of innovative activity, is determined not only and not so much by the assessment of the current position of an economic agent at the appropriate level of the economic hierarchy, but by the conclusions that can be drawn on the basis of this assessment. The technology of Analysis of the functioning environment allows finding ways to maintain the existing level of efficiency or methods to increase it by constructing stability zones - areas in the space of phase coordinates, within which an economic agent retains its status of effectively or inefficiently functioning. This, in turn, makes it possible to determine critically important directions of development - directions along which an efficiently functioning economic agent can lose its status, or, on the contrary, those directions along which an inefficiently functioning economic agent can most quickly reach the effective border.

A systematic approach that justifies the decision to choose the optimal innovative project should equally, along with the expected result of innovation, take into account material, scientific, technical, and labor resources, with the involvement of which only its implementation is possible. Available resources act as a natural constraint in the implementation of innovation and often determine the feasibility and the very possibility of this implementation. With all the variety of resources necessary for the implementation of innovation (labor, taking into account the professional composition and qualifications of personnel, material - special equipment, technical and instrumental support, etc.), their specific types can replace each other to one degree or another , which is quantitatively expressed by their monetary valuations, which, like the magnitude of the effects, are determined by the structural and technical and technological parameters of innovations.

Each innovative project is quite adequately depicted by the vector of potential effects and costs P = ^E1,E2,.Em,Cy, the set of vectors of the indicated type corresponding to the alternatives being evaluated forms a set in the criterion space P = . , the primary selection from which was carried out using the principle of dominance of alternatives and the Pareto criterion; dominated variants of innovations are excluded from further consideration, which makes it possible to reduce the number of compared projects to a set of non-dominated alternatives P0pt, but does not give a single best solution. The choice of the optimal variant of innovation is proposed to be carried out by introducing an additional selection criterion higher order, for example, by selecting one of the criteria (or some criteria) as the main one and transferring the rest to the category of restrictions; in the case when all types of effects are expressed in monetary terms and reduced to the total amount of potential profit, each project can be characterized by the ratio of the result to the costs, which is subject to maximization with or without taking into account the allowable costs.

The most important of the features of innovation activity identified in the course of the study is its continuous nature; the final economic result is determined not by the effectiveness of individual projects, but by their continuous overall contribution to the activities of the economic agent, the profit he receives. Point, "oasis" innovations have only a local, short-term and quickly fading effect and cannot have a significant impact on the achievement of long-term strategic goals of stable functioning and development of an economic agent. The latter require that, organically intertwining, complementing and replacing each other, individual innovative projects formed a discrete-continuous flow, the static characteristic of which at each moment of time t is the portfolio of innovations of an economic agent - a set of projects that are under development and implementation at a given moment of time. Representing a set of innovative projects, the portfolio of innovations has new qualities that are different from the qualities of individual projects, and is considered as a control unit in planning and implementing innovative activities. An innovation portfolio created on the basis of the analysis of individual projects by the method of their aggregation is of greater value than individual projects. At the same time, managing a portfolio as a complex of projects with different properties may require much more effort and money than managing individual projects.

As the simplest solution to the problem of forming an innovation portfolio, it is proposed to spread the proven methods for selecting individual projects: if there is a set of alternatives - C 1 2 1c)

Popt = ,Р Р each of which is characterized by an aggregated effect (the value of the composite profit) Е], the value of costs C J: and the task is to choose a set of projects that ensures maximum profit, provided that the total costs do not exceed the established amount C , then its solution can be as follows. All considered projects from the set Рopt are ordered in accordance with the corresponding value KJ =

By the ratio of profit to costs and further, these projects are accepted in the order thus established until the boundary C is reached. A significant drawback of this approach is that each project is evaluated in isolation, regardless of its contribution to the overall portfolio of projects. Representing a complex of individual projects, the portfolio of innovations acquires quantitative parameters either as a result of active, purposeful actions, or randomly, which are determined by the association of projects and are characterized by factors that determine their association. This applies primarily to the effectiveness of the portfolio, since the purpose of compiling the portfolio is to maximize the potential effect, the return on the costs of implementing innovative activities. The cumulative effect of innovations has a cumulative property and is quantified by a superadditive function: EyP1 and PJ j > EyP1 j + EyPJ "j. In essence, this means that the effect of the joint implementation of two innovative projects is not less than the sum of the effects of their separate implementation, and with the right combination of projects surpasses it: innovations interact with each other in products, technological processes, organizational and managerial systems, and each of them can contribute to the survival of others.In terms of the magnitude of costs that characterize the innovation portfolio, the function expressing them can be both subadditive and and superadditive, depending on the conditions for the implementation of a complex of projects.

Since the task of planning innovation activity is to influence the scientific and technical policy of an economic agent, its influence is realized through decision-making and resource allocation. The distribution of resources between individual projects included in the innovation portfolio P is carried out by setting on the set Popt non-negative factors that have the meaning of the share of resources allocated for each of the innovations in their complex, or the intensity coefficients for the use of innovations. The formulas that determine the optimal structural proportions of the portfolio were obtained in the dissertation by means of game-theoretic modeling: matrix and bimatrix games were constructed that simulate the conflict of mismatched interests of maximizing the potential effect and minimizing the expected costs, and optimal mixed strategies were found in each of them. The proposed methodology for determining the structural proportions of the portfolio is universal in that it can be used to form an innovation portfolio, taking into account uncertainty and risk factors.

The idea of ​​applying the apparatus of game theory to the study of innovation processes in general and the formation of a portfolio of innovations in particular seems to us to be quite fruitful and promising if we consider game theory as a general methodology for making decisions in conflict conditions and not be limited to non-cooperative games. Thus, when forming an innovation portfolio, one can also use the tools of the theory of cooperative games, which will allow one to explicitly take into account the superadditivity of the cumulative effect function, subadditivity or superadditivity of expected costs. The value of the theory of cooperative games lies in the large ideological capacity of the principles of optimality adopted in it: Ca-kernels, H-M-solutions, n-kernels, etc., which have not yet received wide distribution and practical application, perhaps due to the narrowness and specificity of the traditionally studied this task theory. At the same time, having endowed the basic game-theoretic concepts with a sufficiently broad meaningful meaning, it is possible to extend the principles of optimality of the theory of cooperative games to the formal scheme common task decision-making and use it, including in solving the problem of the optimal combination of innovations. The problem of the optimal (in terms of the number of innovative projects included in the portfolio) size of the portfolio deserves to be independently studied. It is obvious that the effectiveness of the EP portfolio is determined not only by the parameters of individual projects, but also by their number: EP = EP(k). It can be assumed that for small values ​​of k, this function has a positive derivative dEn, increasing at a certain kt^a, dk which then begins to decrease due to the growing organizational difficulties in managing a large portfolio. From the assumptions dEn made, it follows that - has at least one maximum, which dk can be taken as the optimal size of the innovation portfolio.

Every innovation is a complex dynamic system; innovation management is the management of a dynamic system, process, and is itself a continuous process (and each management decision is a static characteristic of this process), which should have been adequately reflected in the principles of optimality used in the management of innovation activity. The method of Analysis of the functioning environment, traditionally applied to the analysis of the effective functioning of an economic agent in a static sense, is developed in the dissertation on a situation that explicitly includes the time factor.

The performed generalization allows, in particular, to calculate the level of efficiency that must be achieved by a certain point in time. The latter is necessary in order to be able to constantly monitor the process of innovation development, taking into account ongoing economic changes and additional information. It is clear that the assessment of the changes that have taken place and the receipt of additional information are not possible after short periods of time. Certain points in time (control points) should be allocated, at which a fundamental reassessment of the innovation project should be carried out, each aspect of the implementation of the innovation should be reviewed. The presence of these control points is determined by the own logic of the development of innovation: being a continuous process, innovation also has a discrete structure; in its development, it goes through a number of specific stages and phases, the end of which is most suitable for reassessment in accordance with the results achieved, the changes that have occurred and new information. All parameters of an innovative project and all aspects of its implementation should be reassessed, but above all, the potential effect, which can both increase and decrease during the implementation of the project.

The latter circumstance can also be included in the model of the dynamics of innovation processes. In the most general form, the life cycle of innovation is described by a set of generalized logistic curves, diffe i - \, m, where bj (t) is the potential effect of the i-th type, calculated at time t. Analytically, this system is integrated up to quadratures, but with sufficient information it can be solved numerically or studied by simulation tools that are adequately supported by the principles of system dynamics.

The dynamic management process regarding the continuation of work on the project, its suspension or complete termination, as well as its static counterpart - the management decision, should be based on a comparison of the potential effect of innovation and the cost of its implementation. However, the fact that we are talking on the management of a dynamic system, introduces its own specifics into the organization of this process. At each point in time, a managerial decision is made taking into account what state the innovation has reached in the process of its implementation, what additional potential effect the continuation of work on the project can bring, and what additional costs it will require. The traditionally used form of presenting the results of the evaluation of innovative projects in the form of points on the numerical plane "cost - effectiveness" reflects the static state of innovation at the time of the project definition; a vector is naturally associated with each such point (its radius is a vector emanating from the origin of coordinates - the point corresponding to inactivity, to the point depicting the cardinal characteristics of innovation). If it is necessary to analyze the dynamics of innovation processes, the latter should be represented not as points, but as trajectories of movement in this rencial equation of which have planes. The trajectory is displayed as a polyline, the nodes of which correspond to certain moments (the moments of completion of individual stages or intermediate control points), the coordinates correspond to the effects achieved (the results obtained, the degree of completion of tasks, etc.) and the funds used, and the polygonal vector emanating from the end point - additional potential effect and additional costs - the vector of "end defect". In the course of the study, four types of directions of this vector were identified, belonging to each of which implies the adoption of an appropriate management decision.

The developed methodology for developing optimal solutions and organizing the process of managing innovation is quite general in the sense that it can be applied to innovation of each type, starting at any stage of its life cycle, but a necessary condition for its applicability is a stable state of the external environment and a long historical experience, allowing to identify the parameters of mathematical models. The conditions of economic, political, legal instability often force us to abandon the use of a universal decision-making methodology. The natural uncertainty of a number of indicators characterizing the quality of innovation activity also determines the preference for obtaining and analyzing options for potential situations compared to searching for optimal solutions, which can be achieved by means of simulation modeling. Adequate analytical support for such an approach to the organization of the innovation management process is provided by system dynamics: the patterns of innovation processes identified in the course of the study are quite consistent with the basic system dynamic principles.

The constructed structured description of an economic agent as a subject of innovative activity makes it possible to characterize its current state by the level of some funds and non-model units (coinciding with the elements of a formalized description of an economic agent), the dynamics of the current state - by changing the levels of funds, and these changes themselves - by the rates of flows filling or exhausting the funds, determining the dynamics of economic activity and innovation activity, the cumulative effect of which leads to the achievement of the intended goals. Adequately reflecting the structures of the systems under study, the means of system dynamics make it possible to link the process of managing innovation activity with the regulation of positive and negative feedbacks (the presence of which is one of the main features of innovation activity) that affect the current level of funds on the rates of filling or exhausting their flows. The idea of ​​regulating the process of feedback management allows system dynamics to distinguish between the concepts of extensive growth and effective development, to focus on the analytical problems of intensive and large-scale development.

The specificity of system-dynamic models, which consists in the fact that the features of the functioning of the systems under study are determined mainly by the transfer of their structure, the identification of direct and feedback loops and their adequate reflection, makes it possible to take into account the riskiness of innovative activity and the high uncertainty of its results. The parameters of dependencies that characterize the established relationships can be set with significant errors without a significant impact on the simulation results; when constructing models, it is sufficient to establish only the general boundaries of the change in parameters and redefine them, taking into account qualitative patterns in the course of a computational experiment.

The methodology of system dynamics allows for practical implementation by means of information technologies through the construction of simulation models at a certain time interval of the development of the situation. By setting a certain simulation step, it is possible to vary the quality of the simulation results: from obtaining a detailed scenario of the development of the situation to identifying the main trends in the development of events.

The main provisions of the dissertation research, its ideas and conclusions were reported and approved at scientific and scientific and practical conferences various levels: international (Rostov-on-Don, 1997, Veliky Novgorod, 1999, Khabarovsk, 2000), All-Russian (St. Petersburg, 1997, Ulyanovsk, 1999) , interregional (Rostov-on-Don, 1998, Nizhny Novgorod, 1999). Scientific, methodological and methodological results of the study are reflected and developed in the research developments of the department Applied Mathematics Dzerzhinsky branch of NSTU, when performing the state budget research work "Application numerical methods to the solution of some physical and socio-economic problems ”(state registration number 019000297566), were used in the development of methodological support for the educational process.

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scientific director

firm "Gradient"

candidate of physics mat. Sciences.,

e-mail: firma-

Dynamic modeling of the innovation process.

It would be beneficial to have the language of scientists, which would not depend on human indiscretion, frivolity and arbitrariness.

Leibniz, M., Thought, 1984, p. 430.

Nowadays, one of the most important strategies for survival is innovation. Recall that true innovation is the realization of a new idea. For successful innovation, it is necessary to understand the essence of the innovation process, its uniqueness. Innovation is the main path that ensures the constant growth and prosperity of the company, i.e. innovate or get weaker and die!

For reference. Characteristics of the century after 1980 according to leading experts:

Market demands: price, quality, choice, delivery time, uniqueness;

Companies: innovative.

Commercialization" href="/text/category/kommertcializatciya/" rel="bookmark">commercialization of something new: new technology, new offerings in the form of new products, services or processes, new markets or market segments, new information management system based on modeling.Such a system allows you to build forecasts for the development of activities of various functional areas of the enterprise at all time levels.Innovation is not an isolated event, but a trajectory consisting of many small events.


A company's success depends on matching its model to the characteristics of the industry in which it operates and to its own capabilities. The strategic planning of the company's work is based on the following provisions:

Analysis of the life cycle of technologies, products and markets; as technology, markets, economics, laws define the limits of business;

Finding sources of innovation, bringing together, engaging leading experts, analyzing areas with high volatility;

Linking identified sources of innovation to the development of new types of business.

A tool for knowledge management, which is used to make strategic decisions and manage innovation processes, is the analysis of the nonlinearity of the mechanisms that determine the overall behavior of the system and modeling.

Business leaders are constantly aware that innovation is an integral part of a company's success. True innovation is a management philosophy in which the only guarantee of a company's long-term success is to be more effective than its competitors in meeting the present and future needs of its customers.

Constant technical progress, especially in the computer field, enables the company to work in accordance with the individual requirements of customers. At the same time, the difficulties in working to improve the innovation climate in the company are increasing. They are connected not only with the processing of incoming data, but also with how to use all the information available. In other words, the innovation process that has been launched in our country can give the management of the company a bigger headache than before. After all, company leaders do not have the tools to make competent innovative decisions based on all the information about the current state of affairs.

Explanation.

We list the main indicators of strategic planning: innovation, flexibility, growth, quality, speed, costs, risk.

Creating innovations and making adjustments to them must be consistent with the planning of key strategic indicators. The basis of this planning should be the results of modeling the work of the company for the implementation of innovative activities. All strategic factors must be assessed and a real picture of innovation obtained. Note that this is the only possible way of the innovation process, since the costs of its implementation are several orders of magnitude lower than any costs aimed at introducing innovations. An intuitive innovative way of enterprise development is a direct way to bankruptcy. In this case, firm managers work on the principle of economy of thinking, since they use only that part of the knowledge that corresponds to their point of view. In addition, it may happen that under the pressure of the “public” many firms (especially small enterprises) will innovate for the sake of innovation, or, better, for the solidity and image of the company.

To avoid such an “innovative bias”, we suggest that firms (regardless of size) at the stage of developing strategic decisions must use models (including mathematical ones) that allow compressing incoming information. In this case, the loss of information is controlled by the accuracy of known methods and can be changed at the request of the company's management.

So, innovation is the main way to improve a company's market position and create value for its stakeholders. The main characteristic of the innovation process is its non-linearity, which, as a result, generates significant changes in the behavior of the system with small deviations of its parameters.


Consider a type of modeling of nonlinear systems based on biological concepts. This approach is explained by the fact that the nonlinear behavior of biological systems is the result of the interaction of a large number of individual constituent elements. The result is non-linear behavior and completely new phenomena at higher hierarchical levels. The important thing here is that the reaction of all components contributes to the occurrence of effects that cannot be extrapolated based on knowledge of the local behavior of individual components of the system. It is known that the group behaves differently from the individuals of which it consists.

Analysis of business processes has shown that the model of development and death of biological systems is an effective tool for studying many phenomena in business. Moreover, as in business, the indicators of the functioning of a biological system over time are not linear at all stages of its development.

As a result of studying the life cycles of innovations, it was found that the elasticity of the innovation process over time is linear function from time. The coefficients of this function make it possible to take into account not only the non-linear mechanisms of the innovation process, but also to predict their appearance. computer program allows modeling the life cycle of innovations by reference points, and determining the speed and acceleration of the innovation process at each point of the time cycle.

Nonlinear components of the innovation process.

Loops of mutual amplification (elements of the system influence each other positively)

Unfavorable loops (for example, quality is lost in the pursuit of speed of development)

Loop restrictions:

1. control mechanisms;

2. power and performance limitations;

3. coercion.

Locking mechanism:

1. in the company itself;

2. other interested parties such as a customer or competitor;

Time delays:

1. negative feedback loops. For example, "pig cycle";

2. due to large deviations in the parameters of the processes used;

Selection mechanisms:

1. government (law, laws);

3. in the company itself;

Mechanisms for creating innovations and making adjustments to them:

1. source of innovation;

Two periods of innovation.

1. The incubation period, covering the time since birth scientific idea until its technical feasibility is established. Note that the content of the incubation period is determined by:

The stage of the birth of a new idea, the stage of conducting a study that proves the possibility of implementing the idea, the stage of innovation, i.e., the implementation of a new idea. 2. The emergence of a new product on the market.

During the first period, a preliminary assessment of ideas is carried out and strategic planning of innovative development of production is carried out.

During the second period, the work of new products in market conditions and the analysis and evaluation of the results of innovation activities is carried out.

As part of the life cycle of innovations, characteristic stages are distinguished:

The time the product appeared on the market

Time to accelerate the increase in sales volume

Time for a gradual slowdown in sales growth

Time for a noticeable and sustainable reduction in sales volumes.

The life cycle of innovations has time limits and is characterized by the dynamics of the parameters of the volume of implementation.

The study of the life cycle of innovations is one of the most relevant and least studied aspects in economics. Especially interesting and practically valuable for strategic planning is the assessment of the dynamics of non-linear mechanisms.

In connection with the acceleration of the timing of the creation and dissemination of innovations, we consider it appropriate to create a wide range of dynamic models that can predict the work of the company. In particular, if we use the dependence of the elasticity of the innovation process on time mentioned above, we will obtain an analytical form of the function representing the life cycle of innovations. This function depends on two parameters. One of them allows one to evaluate the nonlinear mechanisms associated with mutual amplification loops. Another parameter depends on unfavorable loops. Note that for small businesses, modeling is the only way to avoid bankruptcy.

A computer model of a dynamic model of the innovation process, built on the basis of the ideas outlined in the work, makes it possible to predict the implementation of a company's strategic development plan. At the same time, the program allows you to correct the forecast based on the judgments of the leading managers of the company. In addition, one of the functions of the program is to track the "strategic drift", which is the gap between market requirements and the company's real offerings.

The study of the life cycle of innovation shows the need to consider this process as a continuous one. Indeed, it suffices to refer to Figure 2


Figure 2.


And present curve 1 on it as the life cycle curve of the product that puts it on the market, and curve 2 as a section of the innovation life cycle curve. The figure shows that the process of updating production allows you to maintain or increase sales volumes.

Moskalev Igor Evgenievich - RAGS under the President of the Russian Federation, deputy head of the department. organization of social systems and anti-crisis management, Ph.D.

In the context of the innovative development of modern society and the growing uncertainty of social changes, there is a need for effective methods for diagnosing the social and innovative environment, predicting the future and assessing risks based on adequate scientific models. However, today there is a serious gap in communication between managers with knowledge and practical experience in the field of state and municipal government and specialists who own the methods of mathematical and computer modeling. In many respects, this situation is due to the fact that very rarely managers of state and municipal government have competencies that are sufficient not only for the independent development of rigorous mathematical models of social systems and processes, but also for the formation of a request for these studies to specialists in mathematical modeling.

In the context of the innovative development of modern society and the growing uncertainty of social changes, there is a need for effective methods for diagnosing the social and innovative environment, predicting the future and assessing risks based on adequate scientific models. However, today there is a serious gap in communication between managers with knowledge and practical experience in the field of state and municipal government and specialists who own the methods of mathematical and computer modeling. In many respects, this situation is due to the fact that very rarely managers of state and municipal government have competencies that are sufficient not only for the independent development of rigorous mathematical models of social systems and processes, but also for the formation of a request for these studies to specialists in mathematical modeling.

We see one of the ways to solve this problem in a broader understanding of the modeling process as a dynamic process of formation in the mind of the subject-researcher of a holistic image that reflects the essential characteristics of the simulated reality. At the same time, we assume that this image can be built using various languages ​​and tools, which means that the world of rigorous mathematical models can be systemically associated with a set of flexible description tools (intuitively understandable, qualitative, cognitive) that play the role of a communicative intermediary between specialists from different disciplines and fields of activity. The qualitative models discussed in this article make it possible, in our opinion, to capture the main characteristics of social reality, thereby simplifying the complexity (both in understanding the object and in the means of expression) and forming a holistic image necessary for an adequate assessment of the situation by a person making managerial decisions. solutions, as well as setting tasks for more rigorous, quantitative studies.

Thus, we are talking about the need to develop the skills of "model thinking" among managers through the development of methods for qualitative modeling of social processes.

In the context of the reflexive control paradigm, given the reflexive nature of social processes and the situation of an included observer, we argue that the model social system performs not only a heuristic and prognostic function, but is also a means of communication of the subjects of management themselves, as well as a means of communication between the subject of a management decision and its object.

Multifactor model

One of the well-known techniques for constructing an image that describes a complex social situation is to construct a diagram of factors that have the strongest influence on the integrity of the social system, the possibilities for its development, and the quality of life of citizens.

Fig.1 Diagram of indicators of satisfaction with social needs.

The model shown in fig. 1 reflects the hypothesis about the main factors in the development of the social system, expressed in terms of satisfaction with social needs. As a reference state, we can take the outer contour of the obtained profile, corresponding to 100% satisfaction with each factor. However, this reference state should be adjusted to take into account regional specifics and some situational factors.

Quantitative estimates of the model indicators can be obtained both by the method of expert assessments and by the method of a sociological survey.

This model makes it possible to take into account in the process of developing and implementing the reform the most problematic areas from the point of view of the development of the social sphere, which can be both direct goals of the state reform and sources of risks.

Scale of innovative development of the innovative social environment of the region

Based on the methodology proposed by C. Landry, for measuring the innovative development of the urban environment, we propose the following system for assessing the innovative development of the region.

Grade

Criteria for evaluation

Creativity is not perceived as an important part of the life of the region. There is no public discussion of issues related to creativity and innovation.
And the administration is beginning to understand the value of innovation. There are attempts to stimulate creativity on the part of the municipality, for example, achievements are celebrated. The organization and management of the region remain traditional. There is still an outflow of promising personnel from the region.
Several pilot projects and studies are being carried out by universities. The "brain drain" is being stopped.
There is an infrastructure that supports innovation a. Technology transfer is taking place. Exchange programs are being implemented in business, education and the municipal sphere.
There is support for creative projects at all levels in the region, aimed at retaining the most talented specialists. The territory attracts talented people, but some resources are still lacking.
The territory has received national and international recognition as a creative hub. The region is home to the headquarters of important research institutes and innovative companies.
The region has become a self-sufficient place where a cycle of self-renewing self-critical and reflective creativity has been created. Opportunities and infrastructure of the highest level, facilities and organizations of global importance are being created in the city region.

This assessment structure makes it possible to determine the indicators of the ideal state of the social innovation environment and the vector of its development. It should be noted that the evaluation criteria take into account the factor of openness of the observed system and the reflexivity of the subjects of management represented by the administration.

Four-factor model of innovative development of the social environment

One of the most important tasks in the process of managing state reform is the task of developing a basic measurement system, thanks to which the multidimensional and difficult to formalize social innovation environment turns into a space that reflects certain characteristics of this environment and allows you to set the main guidelines for fixing the current state of the social system.

In the context of our approach, we propose the following four-factor model for assessing the innovative development of a social system, graphically presented in the form of a diagram. This technique makes it possible to quantification difficult to formalize qualitative phenomena. Each of the parameters can be evaluated according to the scale developed by us based on the system of observed indicators.

Rice. 2. An example of a rating scale

Table 1. An example of constructing an evaluation scale

Factor Characteristic Indicators Units of measurement of indicators
Creative potential Formation of an environment conducive to creativity, generation of new ideas and innovative projects Innovators and Inventors.

innovative organizations.

social circles.

social movements.

Creative personalities

-Number of scientific and educational institutions.

The number of new technologies, the number of participants in creative associations.

Motivation The degree of interest of social actors in the implementation of innovative projects. Having unmet needs

Social instabilities

-Number of citizens dissatisfied with the present.

The number of protests.

Percentage of media publications aimed at change

Activity Implementation of innovative projects, activity of social actors, availability of resources for implementation Public resonance from the implementation of projects

Implementation of projects to transform the social environment

-Number of people involved in the innovation project;

Costs for implementing changes;

The number of activities aimed at changing and developing the social sphere.

Social reflection The degree of awareness of the consequences of implementation, risk assessment, manageability of processes Degree of understanding

Management of risks

Monitoring

The presence of special events to discuss the actions of the administration. Conducting polls, referendums, forums.

Factor of innovative potential

The creative potential of a social system is formed by the subjects of social change themselves, which can be represented by both specific individuals and various groups acting consciously (purposefully) or unconsciously, i.e. without associating their actions with specific changes. As the main actors of social innovations, P. Sztompka distinguishes the following six types of subjects of social change, by the presence of which we will determine the creative potential of the social environment:

  • Individual people who come up with innovations (the inventor of a new technology, a politician who proposed a reform, an entrepreneur who reorganizes an enterprise, etc.).
  • Innovative roles (artists, scientists, inventors, experts, shamans, etc.).
  • Innovative organizations (legislative committees, parliaments, commissions, design bureaus, etc.).
  • Social circles of an innovative nature (aristocratic "bohemia", students, jazz musicians, film masters, etc.).
  • Social movements (youth, political, feminist movements).
  • Ordinary people who in their Everyday life create new practices (ways of speaking, dealing with others, entertainment, etc.)

Motivational factor

In order for the social environment to realize its creative potential, there must be sufficiently strong motives. The degree of motivation in our system characterizes the need of social actors for changes and their desire to make an effort to implement an innovative project. Assessment of motivation in the context of the concept of innovation government controlled should be carried out from the point of view of the state, society and the state-society system.

P. Sztompka points out the following four circumstances that affect the fact that the subject, immersed in the existing normative structure, can suddenly somehow free himself from it and make efforts to change this structure:

  1. The imperfection of the processes of socialization and control, due to which no one is ever completely, completely formed by the culture of his society.
  2. The difference in the degree of submission to socialization and control in different people groups.
  3. Heterogeneity, pluralism, conflict nature of the normative structure of each society.
  4. The distancing of some groups from their society and their acceptance as a model of another society and its culture.

In assessing the motivation for innovative changes, we propose to consider the following factors, on the basis of which the corresponding system of indicators is built.

  • Having unmet needs
  • The degree of protest mood
  • Focus on the future (system of expectations)
  • Social instabilities
  • Dissociations (contradictions of tension, conflicts)

Here it should be noted the existence of both positive motivation (striving for the best, ideal, development), and negative (avoidance of threats, conflicts and contradictions). At the same time, these motives can be identified at the conscious and subconscious levels.

Factor of innovative activity

The activity of social actors and their involvement in innovative projects characterizes real changes in the social environment. It is possible to evaluate this factor by such indicators as:

  • the number of people involved in an innovative social project;
  • the cost of implementing changes;
  • public outcry from the implementation of projects.

Of course, when assessing the profile of the innovative development of the social environment, an important indicator is not only the values ​​of each factor separately and their comparison with the ideal state and the state in other regions, but also the degree of balance of all 4 factors. For example, high innovative activity without sufficient managerial reflection may not only be insufficiently effective, but also create additional threats. On the other hand, the high creative potential of the social environment may not be in demand in conditions of weak motivation and in the absence of a sufficiently active position of social actors.

Qualitative models of the social and innovative environment of state reforms

Theory force field K. Levina

From the point of view of risk management associated with possible resistance to targeted social changes, such as government reforms, the concept of K. Lewin's force field is of interest, according to which any organized changes in the social system can be considered in the context of the struggle between motivating and limiting forces. Managing change in social organization comes down to balancing these forces.

Rice. 3. Scheme of the force field.

Any innovative change caused by certain motives (motivating forces) encounters resistance from limiting forces. To make a management decision aimed at introducing social innovation, it is necessary to analyze the force field, determining all the forces and their direction. Let us consider the structure of the force field that developed in the situation of the reform of social benefits in 2005.

Criteria for evaluating social innovation

For the differential diagnosis of social innovations and the tasks of public administration, it is necessary to develop selection criteria that allow evaluating social innovations in terms of the main priorities of the development of society.

Criteria for evaluating social innovations and the ideal model:

The reform contributes to the effective interaction of social institutions, social groups, contributes to the formation of identity and the reproduction of values.

The reform opens up new opportunities for positive changes expressed in the parameters of the quality of life of citizens in accordance with Art. No. 7 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation.

The reform provides the social subject with the right to freely choose to use new development opportunities.

Let us apply this system of criteria to the assessment of the 2005 social benefits reform.

Evaluation criterion

positive impact Negative influence Consequences are not defined
Preservation of the communicative integrity of the system V
Increment of social capital (as a resource of trust) V
The possibility of developing a social system V
Possibility of choice in the social subject V

According to our estimates, the reform of social benefits has violated the integrity of the social system of beneficiaries; contributed to social disunity by introducing various forms of benefits for beneficiaries of the same category, but living in different regions. As a result of such measures, the credibility of the authorities was undermined. The reform was introduced practically without a public examination and was simply imposed on beneficiaries, even without sufficient prior information to the population. Changes in the system of social benefits, according to the majority of respondents, did not lead to noticeable positive changes in the quality of life.

Cognitive modeling

If, according to Einstein, the problems that we solve are not solvable on the way of thinking on which we create them, then the task of controlling the way of thinking itself arises, which is possible only due to a sufficiently high degree of reflection of the subject of control. Through reflection, the subject makes observable his way of thinking, in the process of solving a complex problem. In this regard, the method of cognitive modeling is one of the simplest in terms of implementation technology, but at the same time it allows you to visualize not only the main factors of the social environment and the structure of their relationships, but also reflect the very logic of the modeling subject's thinking.

The essence of the method is that a group of experts identifies the most significant factors (in the case of public administration, these may be factors influencing the implementation of state reform) of the observed process, and also analyzes possible relationships between them. The relationship between factors can be either direct (an increase in one factor leads to an increase in the other) or inverse (an increase in one factor leads to a weakening of the other). This configuration is displayed as a directed graph (see Fig. 4.).

Rice. four. cognitive model environment for social benefit reform.

To highlight the key factors and determine the strength and nature of their relationships, you can use both the method of statistical factor analysis of data obtained by the method of a sociological survey of citizens of the study region, and the method of expert assessments.

This method is of the greatest value in the process of collective analysis of the situation and decision-making.

When constructing a cognitive model, it is necessary to ensure that the number of factors considered is minimal (no more than 12), because excessive complexity of the model will not allow the expert to highlight the most significant mechanisms and relationships.

The model also makes it possible to visually display stabilizing and destabilizing feedbacks, which can both ensure the homeostasis of the system and cause significant changes. M. Maruyama proved that "the contour enhances the deviation if and only if it contains an even number of negative arcs or does not contain them at all, otherwise it is a contour that counteracts the deviation". Based on the cognitive model, the manager makes decisions regarding:

  1. impact on certain factors;
  2. change in the strength of the connection;
  3. changes in the nature of the relationship;
  4. inclusion of new factors in the system;
  5. inclusion of new mechanisms of interaction.

3.4 Models of social innovation dynamics

Life cycle model

The rate of introduction of new or diffusion of innovations depends on the internal characteristics and parameters of the system. We can agree with Yu.M. Plotinsky that the demand for innovation also depends on the phase of the life cycle of the social system. Based on the general model of the life cycle of an organization, we can assume that the period of greatest demand for innovations is the period of the formation of the organization, as well as the period of crisis associated with saturation or depletion of resources for new growth.

Rice. 5. Life cycle model

In this case, a social system in a state of development is more ready for reform than a system in a state of stabilization. At the stage of increased demand for innovations, there is a risk of lagging behind the real needs of society for changes, which can lead to spontaneous transformations and contradictions with the existing management system. These changes coming from below and aimed at changes in the management system can be described as revolutionary.

The perception of innovation is the perception of novelty. Innovation is associated with the individual's subjective perception of the opportunities and threats of the upcoming change. Therefore, innovations that have a clear set of expected benefits and simple rules of social interaction are implemented faster.

Rice. 6. Principle of selection of innovative social strategies

Effective social strategies can be copied by social actors, both on a conscious and unconscious level, which ensures the diffusion of innovation. The very principle of copying someone else's effective experience is a social strategy that ensures the integrity of the social system and its coherent development.

Nonlinear dynamics models

Nonlinear dynamic models play a special role in the analysis of the complex dynamics of social change. Let us consider some of their applications to the modeling of innovative social processes.

The evolutionary curve based on logistics management clearly shows the main stages of the spread of innovation.

Rice . 7. Logistic model of innovation distribution

x t +1 = ax t (1-x t)+x t ;

x t- the number of participants in the innovation process at time t.

a- the rate of spread of innovation.

"Diffusion is the process of spreading innovations within a given social system, as well as from one social system to another". The speed of innovation distribution depends on the effectiveness of communication channels and society's readiness for change (the degree of instability of the social system).

Innovation in systems with dynamic complexity is difficult to predict because cause and effect are connected in a circular fashion and may not be comparable in their effects. At the same time, synergetic methods for modeling social processes make it possible to translate uncertainty into risks, identify the range of attractors of the system, play scenarios, and determine new meanings and management strategies.

For example, the logistic model takes into account both the autocatalytic mechanism for the spread of innovation and the possibility of some saturation due to the depletion of resources. At the same time, this model demonstrates a huge range of different scenarios for the spread of innovation (depending on the ratio of parameters responsible for the resource capacity of the environment and the activity of social agents), from reaching a stationary state, to periodic fluctuations with different periods and a chaotic regime.

Fig.8. Chaotic mode.a= 3; M= 1000.

x t+1 = ax t (M - x t)+x t ;

M is the capacity of the medium.

The model of the dynamics of the innovation process considered below is based on the model of the dynamics of the electoral campaign developed by a group of authors (Arshinov V.I., Budanov V.G., Moskalev I.E., Tarasenko V.V.) in the sector of interdisciplinary research of the Institute of Philosophy of the Russian Academy of Sciences. We see the practical application of this approach in the use of the proposed model and research methodology in the work of the situational center of the RAGS under the President of the Russian Federation.

The first stage of modeling consists in identifying the key factors (groups of factors) that determine the dynamics of the spread of social innovation. This problem is solved by brainstorming. The obtained data are compared with the basic assumptions of the model of the dynamics of social innovations.

According to the basic settings of the model, the process of recruiting reform supporters is determined by the following parameters:

Ntotal number people involved in the process;

N i- number of existing supporters i th innovative (anti-innovative) strategy;

N u- the number of people not participating in the innovation process;

c i- campaign activity of supporters i-th innovation;

A i- attractiveness i-th innovation;

a i — relative attractiveness i-th innovation;

a u– relative attractiveness of non-participation in innovation processes.

The mathematical model describing the competition between supporters and opponents of the reform is a system of non-linear equations of the balance type:

dN i /dt = c i N i (N u a i — N i a u)

N=? N i + N u

a i \u003d A i / (A 1 + A 2 + ... + A n)

The influence of these parameters on the increase in the number of supporters of one of the innovation strategies can also be represented as follows.

Fig.6. Factors affecting the increase in the competitiveness of innovation 1 in relation to innovation 2.

In the case of the implementation of the reform of benefits, we have the following groups of citizens: 1) supporters of monetization; 2) opponents of change; 3) citizens who have not defined their attitude to the reform.

Next, the setting of the problem for a qualitative and quantitative analysis of factors is played out: determining the number of supporters of innovations; setting a task for the study of campaigning activity of supporters; determination by brainstorming of the factors influencing the attractiveness of innovation; making a decision on the timing and methods of research.

To conduct a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the situation, we can use the data of population surveys for 2004-2006, posted on the website of the Public Opinion Foundation www. fom. ru.

Opinion poll data analysis (

CHAPTER I. Theoretical foundations of the method of scientific modeling.

1.1. General concept scientific model.

1.2. Determination of the methodological foundations of the process of modeling educational systems.

1.3. General scientific classification of models.

CHAPTER II. Gnoseological analysis of the functions of modeling innovative educational systems.

2.1. Structural and functional features of the process of modeling educational systems.

2.2. Characterization of general trends in the development of educational modeling functions.

CHAPTER III. Theorists substantiate the logic of modeling innovative educational systems.

3.1. The concept, structure and ways of activating innovative processes in education.

3.2. Substantiation and determination of the conditions for the effectiveness of the process of modeling an innovative educational system.

3.3. Characterization of the main stages of modeling innovative educational systems.

3.4. Expert characteristics of an innovative educational model.

Dissertation Introduction in Pedagogy, on the topic "Theoretical Foundations of Modeling Innovative Educational Systems"

Increasing rates of changes in modern society, the growing role of scientific and technological progress lead to a significant complication of social reality.

The end of the 20th century was a turning point in the development of national education. This period is characterized by a change in the value orientations of the school as a social institution; the intensity of innovation processes; the emergence of alternative trends and new types of educational institutions; search for technologies for implementing the proclaimed ideas of education reform.

Modern pedagogy is rethinking its own development from the standpoint of analyzing the new socio-cultural situation and prospects, as well as taking into account the integration of world and domestic pedagogy. Socio-spiritual spheres of different countries are connected with each other and influence each other. A crisis or rise in some causes corresponding changes in others, since all local educational systems constitute a common, open and dynamic system in which the development of individual elements naturally leads to the transformation of others, and ultimately to a change in the entire system.

The current situation in education lays the foundations for the cultural and educational development of the next century, therefore it is important in theory and practice to reach a new level of synthesis of innovations and the best in various pedagogical concepts past and ■ ✓ present.

In line with these processes, there is a rethinking of the philosophical foundations of domestic pedagogy. The humanistic philosophy of education based on the principles of new pedagogical thinking cannot but rely on a broad theoretical foundation built by representatives of various scientific schools, which in a new way consider the processes of development and evolution, the mechanisms for the formation and testing of new concepts and knowledge, the features of the construction of modern theories.

What is happening in Russia is very significant for the global education system. The new pedagogical thinking in Russia plays a dual role: it actively absorbs the traditional and innovative experience of various countries and at the same time contributes its experimental and theoretical developments to the foundation of development. Preserving its traditions, domestic pedagogy is becoming more open and dynamic at the same time, it comprehends the directions of its own internal development more accurately and on a broad theoretical basis.

The determining factors in the development of modern pedagogical science and practice are:

A new awakening of interest in the study of the problem of self-realization of the individual, which includes various mechanisms and forms of its manifestation (self-determination, self-identification, self-affirmation, self-development, self-education, as giving oneself an image);

Polysystemism, diversity of cultural values, along with the democratic rights of the child, are also becoming priorities in education;

The search for new worldview orientations, as the search for a new way and way of life, a new attitude to people, to nature, to society;

Orientation of educational systems to the education of a person capable of thinking creatively, systematically, predictively; to see the world in the perspective of diversity and unity, to be able to make decisions and be responsible for their consequences.

All this "cannot be ignored when designing the development of modern educational models, which, on the one hand, is strictly standardized by legislative acts (development guidelines); on the other hand, the effect of the novelty of the reform has clearly ceased to play the role of a significant guideline; on the third hand, the task of holistic development with Thus, the optimization task becomes more complicated: maintaining the integrity, subjectivity of the educational model; ensuring the development mode; transition of educational models from the theoretical level of conceptual justification to instrumental support of the implementation technology; developing the innovative content of education and its methodological base; this requires the implementation of standards - rigidly set by administrative structures.

On the other hand, the current situation is quite favorable for pedagogical science in terms of comprehending the innovative transformations that have taken place in domestic education over the last decade of the 20th century. Any reform requires a serious analysis of the results obtained, the determination of the effectiveness of the decisions made and the identification of key, basic positions that can become starting points for a new innovative development cycle.

It seems to us that the entry into the new millennium is decisive for the modern educational system for preparing the next cycle of innovative development. A preliminary analysis allows us to state that the innovative processes of the last decade in the modern domestic school:

Have not acquired a systemic character;

They were not radical enough: their development did not lead to significant progress in the development of the national school;

Not all spheres of school life were covered;

Often they were forced and catching up;

Separate innovations were poorly coordinated with each other and were introduced chaotically;

There were no specifically formulated common goals of the participants in the innovation activity; ■ /

There were no or insufficiently developed conditions that stimulate the maximum involvement of people in the work of developing the school and achieving its maximum results;

There were no divisions and services ready to carry out innovative activities in the school.

The analysis carried out and the contradictions identified made it possible to identify the research problem and determine the leading method of its research - the method of scientific modeling Modeling traditionally refers to quantitative methods pedagogical research. In pedagogical science, the empirical part is clearly visible, reflecting the richest material of observations and? experiments; there are theoretical generalizations that complete the systematization of the material, but so far there is no third logical part that characterizes developed science - the mathematical one. Complementing qualitative ideas about its subject with formalized generalizations, pedagogical theory acquires the necessary clarity and stability. The classical mathematical apparatus is not suitable for the analysis of phenomena of such complexity as pedagogical ones. This contradiction can be resolved on the one hand -■ ? attempts to present phenomena in such a simplified form that is accessible to analysis by traditional mathematical methods, on the other hand, the development and application of new methods of formalized description. Pedagogy as a science developed mainly through analysis - the division of the whole into parts; modeling, on the other hand, is based on a synthetic approach: it singles out integral systems and investigates their functioning.

Since pedagogical reality is diverse and multidimensional, it is characterized by a variety of models. The nature and method of teaching, educational programs, situations of interaction and the structure of relationships in the process of school management, teaching methods and forms of its organization, educational systems are modeled. The vast majority of the created educational models relate to didactic phenomena: optimization of the structure of educational material, models of planning the educational process, management of cognitive activity, management of the educational process, diagnostics, forecasting, design of training. Obviously, the application of the modeling method in the educational process was localized, fragmented, and therefore did not achieve high efficiency and ✓ effectiveness.

Modern consideration of the possibilities of this method of scientific and pedagogical research is caused by the actual need of pedagogical practice for a holistic understanding of the educational reform of the end of this century and for the development of thoughtful plans and coordinated programs for a new cycle of innovative transformations in the educational system of Russia.

PURPOSE OF THE RESEARCH: Development of theoretical foundations ■ ? modeling of the educational system and their approbation in the innovation process.

OBJECT OF RESEARCH: Innovative processes in education.

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH: Modeling of an innovative educational system.

RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS: The study was based on two groups of hypothetical statements.

I. If the innovative processes of a modern school are studied by the method of scientific modeling, then: Mechanisms are identified that ensure the dynamics of the systemic development of the school model;

Models are defined - analogs, allowing to expand the search for components - substitutes for the system in a certain problem space;

The analogous relations that have been determined between the original object and its model form a new system integral quality of the model, indicating that the act of modeling has taken place;

The process of analytical study of educational systems becomes a special kind of pedagogical experiment - a model experiment;

The process of development of the educational system is characterized by increasing activity, which combines the adaptive and adaptive functions of the model;

The interaction of components within the educational system, and

/ also the interaction of the system itself with social environment becomes informational;

In the process of building an innovative model, there is a functional integration of subject-subject relations (experts - consultants - developers - users).

II. If educational systems are modeled by the simulation method, then:

He brings the system to combination variation by its own elements and structural connections, which will allow it to move on to new system modifications;

It contributes to the emergence of entropy processes as the determining factors of the system's self-development;

It gives the system an integral quality, which brings the model into a polysystemic mode of development, which will further determine the "folding" of the system into a temporary "routine" functioning;

It will create conditions for the personal development of school students at a high level of goal-setting, creative activity, responsibility for decisions and actions, introspection, focus on practical activities and its theoretical understanding.

The purpose, subject and hypothesis of the study predetermined the need to formulate and solve the following TASKS:

1. Determine the methodological foundations of the method of scientific modeling in relation to the features of educational systems;

2. To identify the functional characteristics of educational modeling, with the definition of classification specifics;

3. Determine the conditions that ensure the effectiveness of the process of modeling educational systems;

4. Determine the original object that can be effective and in demand in modern conditions development of the national school;

5. Build the logic (stages) of educational modeling;

6. Carry out a model experiment on the basis of the original object;

7. To reveal the content of the step-by-step educational modeling;

8. Design and start testing an educational and methodological complex that corresponds to the leading ideas and procedural and technological structure of the innovation model.

THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL BASES AND SOURCES OF THE RESEARCH:

Research on the problems of a systematic approach and system analysis in education (R. Akoff, I.V. Blauberg, K. Boulding, J. van Gig, M.S. Kagan, G.P. Korotkoe, V.V. Kraevsky, N. V. Kuzmina, B. F. Lomov, M. N. Skatkin, E. G. Uemov, G. P. Shchedrovitsky, V. A. Yadov, V. A. Yakunin);

Pedagogical research and theories in the field of design, forecasting and management of the development of educational systems, revealing the dialectic of naturally occurring and artificially created (A.V. Akhutin, V.G. Vorontsova, S.S. Gusev, E.A. Guseva, B.S. Gershunsky, V. I. Zagvyazinsky, V. I. Zhuravlev, E. D. Dneprov, V. V. Kraevsky, K. N. Kantor, V. I.

Ginetsinsky, V.Yu. Krichevsky, V.I. Zagvyazinsky, F.Kh. Cassidy, ■ ✓

B.C. Lazarev, O.E. Lebedev, A.F. Losev, V.I. Zagvyazinsky, V.F. Sidorenko, M.M. Potashnik, V.Ya. Nechaev, A.I. Rakitov, V.E. Radionov, G. Simon, F.R. Filippov, E.G. Yudin, etc.)

The works of teachers, addressed to the problems of activity, communication and relationships, as elements of a holistic educational process (T.K. Akhayan, B.Z. Vulfov, V.V. Gorshkova, I.P. Ivanov,

C.G. Vershlovsky, I.S. Kon, V.A. Kan-Kalik, T.E. Konnikova, Z.I.

Vasilyeva, L.I. Novikova, K.D. Radina, N.F. Radionova, A.S. ■ ✓

Robotova, V.I. Slobodchikov, I.S. Batrakova, G.I. Shchukina and others) Works in the field of philosophy, sociology, science of science, devoted to the analysis of modeling as a method of scientific research (N.T. Abramova, Yu.T. Antamonov, N.V. Bochkina, B.A. Glinsky, B.S. Gryaznov, A. A. Gukhman, D. M. Gvishiani, J. Jeffers, A. J. Wilson, B. S. Dynin, A. V. Katsura, V. V. Kelle, E. P. Nikitin, I. B. Novik, M. E. Puusep, B. G. Tamm, P. R. Tavast, R. Shannon, V. A. Shtoff and others);

Works that explore innovative processes in pedagogical science and practice, leading to changes in educational models (K. Angelovski, N.V. Bochkina, Yu.V. Gromyko, E.N. Gusinsky, E.S. Zair-Bek, V V. Davydov, E. I. Kazakova, I. A. Kolesnikova, V. A. Karakovsky, V. N. Maksimova, G. Nikolis, I. Prigogine, I. Stengers, A. P. Tryapitsyna, S. A. Raschitina, V.A. Slastenin, G.S. Sukhobskaya, E.P. Tonkonogaya and others);

Research on general theoretical approaches to the construction of learning in various educational models, on the problems of organizing a wide range of educational space(A.G. Asmolov, Yu.K. Babansky, B.P. Bitinas, A.K. Gromtseva, M.A. Danilov, G.D. Kirillova, I.Ya. Lerner, M.V. Klarin, N D. Nikandrov, M. N. Pevzner, D. Dewey, W. Kilpatrick, R. Berne, M. Montessori, A. Maslow, K. Rogers, V. Franchi, J. Holt, D. Howard, etc.) .

The source of the study was also our own experience in designing and modeling innovative educational systems.

EXPERIMENTAL BASE AND RESEARCH METHODS:

The leading research methods were system analysis, ■ / content analysis, system design, thought experiment, theoretical modeling methods, model experiment, diagnostic methods, strategic planning methods, correctional-correlating methods, methods for predicting and generalizing trends in the development of educational systems, methods of approbation and correction of educational and methodical complexes and educational programs.

The study of innovative educational systems was carried out on the basis of the Pskov regional and city departments of education.

The main basis of the study was the experimental model Bilinguistic School-Laboratory created by the author ■ / Pskov

The preparation of teachers for work in an innovative mode based on the educational model of the Bilingual School-Laboratory took place at specially organized workshops and at special courses and special seminars for graduates of the Pskov Pedagogical Institute.

The problem of the "innovative school-laboratory" relationship and continuous professional development of managers and ✓ teachers of innovative schools of the city and region was studied through a methodological seminar permanently operating at the methodological department of the city Department of Education and at the course training at the Institute for Advanced Studies of Educators of the Pskov Region.

LOGIC AND STAGES OF RESEARCH:

The logical structure of the study included the following sequence of steps: primary theoretical study problems of general scientific modeling (1987 - 1990); based on the analysis of general scientific literature, ✓ the theoretical essence of the modeling process in educational systems was revealed, the necessary conditions for the implementation of this process were determined, the classification characteristics of educational models were determined at the theoretical level (1990 - 1994); the study of theoretical material and the formulation of conceptual approaches to the process of educational modeling made it possible to determine the stages of the modeling process, approve the plan for experimental work and the strategy for the development program ■ ✓ of the model school at the Expert Council of the Regional Education Committee, and also start a model experiment based on the original object for models of the reformist school system of the beginning of the 20th century "Winnetka Plan" and its analogue in modern conditions "School of Tomorrow" - author, Doctor of Philosophy D. Howard (USA), (1994-1996); completion of pilot studies of the model experiment, transition of the model from the stage of operational research and comprehension ✓ to the stage of synthesizing and transferring new knowledge into the innovative model quality of the newly formed system (1996-1998); at the last stage, the main results and conclusions of a theoretical nature were formulated about the possibilities and conditions for using the simulation method in the design of innovative educational systems (1998).

THE FOLLOWING PROVISIONS ARE FOR DEFENSE:

1. Method of scientific modeling as a way of innovative transformations in modern school, whose main characteristics are:

Dynamics of the systemic development of the school model;

Justification of the need to choose an analogue model and substitute components in a certain problem space;

Analog relations between the original object and the simulated object;

A special type of pedagogical experiment is a model ✓ experiment;

Adaptive and adaptive characteristics of the educational model;

Active information character of the developing school model.

2. Determination of methodological features of educational modeling:

System analysis at the stage of search and formulation of problems of the process ✓ modeling of innovative educational systems with leading components: model experiment, system development, system adaptation;

Cognitive approach at the stage of decision making and forecasting the future of the educational system with leading components: cognitive metaphor, information theory, decision theory.

3. Definition of educational modeling as a category of multidimensional, flexible, allowing instrumental, combinational variation in the structure of its own intrasystem connections.

4. The main approaches and stages of modeling educational systems ✓ based on the patterns of simulation modeling:

Stage of analytical formulation of the problem and model selection (descriptive stage);

Stage of creation and operational study of the model (explanatory stage);

Stage of synthesizing and transferring knowledge about the model (prescriptive stage)

5. Classification characteristics reflecting the functional ✓ features of modeling innovative educational systems:

Model-form of knowledge,

Model-study,

Model-idealization,

Model-interpretation,

forecast model,

Model-project, ✓

model-diagnosis,

retrotelling model,

The model is another reality.

6. Criteria for the completion of the model experiment process in the educational system;

Transition of the system from conceptual and theoretical support of the modeling process to procedural and technological;

Participation in the process of creating a third, innovative model, not only the developers of the model, but also the active inclusion in the process of developing an educational and methodological complex of a team of teachers and researchers of the model; ■ /

The transition of the educational model to the mode of polyfunctional, polysystemic self-development with pronounced compilation properties.

Conditions that determine the effectiveness of the process of modeling innovative educational systems: determining the development cycle of educational reform in the region; determination of the innovative potential of the development team; development of a research program for the modeling process; / determination of consultants (supervisors) of the research program; structuring the educational system by simplifying the creation of a problem map of the system under study).

Leading features in the development of educational systems at each new round of the innovation cycle: conclusions about the potential opportunities for self-development and self-government of the educational system through the manifestation of new systemic qualitative ■ / characteristics of the model object as evidence of the act of the modeling process that took place, conclusions about the general characteristics of the development of educational modeling functions, consisting in tendencies towards theorism and towards heuristicism.

SCIENTIFIC NOVELTY AND THEORETICAL SIGNIFICANCE

RESEARCH is that it:

A new technological direction for the study of educational systems of various conceptual orientations by the method of scientific modeling has been developed;

For the first time, the essential methodological foundations are disclosed, / defining the features of modeling educational systems;

Justified and instrumentally, step by step developed the process of modeling educational systems by simulation;

Theoretically established and experimentally proved the fact of the possibility of constructing an innovative educational model by simulation;

The conditions that ensure the effectiveness of the functioning of the innovative educational model are substantiated;

The prognostic nature of the method of modeling innovative educational systems is proved, which determines and predicts trends in the development of pedagogical theory and practice.

PRACTICAL VALUE OF THE RESEARCH:

On the basis of the theoretical provisions of the study, an innovative educational model "Bilinguistic School" has been created and has been functioning for six years;

A complete package of educational and methodological materials has been developed that provides an innovative procedural and technological cycle of the educational process for the preschool department, elementary school and middle level of the basic school;

As part of the activities of the City Methodological Center, a series of workshops was held on teaching and using simulation techniques in order to introduce effective innovations in the educational process of educational institutions;

On the basis of the Lyceum of Chemistry and Technology, a class was opened that models a new round of innovative transformations already on the basis of the educational model "Bilinguistic School";

The Pskov Montessori School uses simulation technology to more effectively adapt the system to regional and national characteristics;

The author's technology for organizing the educational process of the "Bilingual School" was accepted for implementation by the Shchelkovo city gymnasium, training seminars were held, educational and methodological support is being pilot tested;

Through a series of special courses and special seminars at the Pskov Pedagogical Institute with the practical implementation of knowledge and skills on the basis of the "Bilinguistic School", young specialists are trained to work in an innovative educational institution;

The conditions and conceptual approaches to the creation of an urban Model educational center, the purpose of which will be the implementation of systematic research aimed at the early identification and solution of new problems in the development of the educational system of the city.

RELIABILITY AND SUSTAINABILITY of the main provisions and conclusions of the study are due to the clarity of methodological positions; completeness and systematic disclosure of the subject of research in its structural, functional and procedural characteristics and the relationship between them; internal consistency of hypothetical provisions and theoretical conclusions; the variety of applied research methods, which acted in interconnection and interdependence; the duration of the study, which was carried out simultaneously at the theoretical and technological levels using a model experiment; the possibility of using the results of the study in a wide educational circles.

APPROBATION OF THE RESULTS OF THE RESEARCH was carried out: /

During the activities of the Expert Council of the Regional and City Education Committees;

Materials were presented at the III and IV All-Russian congresses of lyceums and gymnasiums;

At seminars on the problems of innovative education in Kostroma (1991), St. Petersburg (1991, 1994, 1995); Moscow (1994, 1998), Sochi (1995), Nizhny Novgorod (1997);

In the process of teaching students of PSPI them. CM. Kirov

✓ special courses "Alternative educational models",

Instrumental bases of modeling of educational systems";

At the International Conference "Baltic Triangle" (Finland - Sweden - Norway) -1996, Kuopio, Finland;

In the activities of the Center for Educational Technologies under the Main Department of Education of the Pskov Region;

At meetings of the departments of pedagogy of the Russian State Pedagogical University. A.I. Herzen, PSPI im. CM. Kirov, Laboratory for the Problems of the Developing School (1987-1997);

At the advanced training courses of the Pskov Institute for Advanced Studies of Educational Workers of the Region;

At scientific and practical conferences on the problem of "Gifted children" (Presidential program);

At the Soros seminars on modern educational technologies (1996 - 1998);

THE STRUCTURE OF THE DISSERT corresponds to the logic of constructing applied scientific research in pedagogical field and consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion, a list of references

381 works) and applications.

Dissertation conclusion scientific article on the topic "General Pedagogy, History of Pedagogy and Education"

CONCLUSION

The obtained results of the study confirmed the correctness of the conceptual provisions of the put forward hypothetical provisions and made it possible to formulate the following conclusions:

1. Educational models can outpace social development. They are always alternative and arise as a result of rethinking the real life goals of civilization (that is, they are born as a result of an innovative idea than as a result of practice and experience, the latter only help this idea take shape and develop to a mature model).

2. Educational models are constantly changing and evolving in social space and time. They constantly interact with each other. Their direct or indirect mutual influences and interdependencies, their opposition and alternativeness, manifestations of diffusion or synthesis of revival in new Eastbrian conditions and on a different cultural soil create the variety of relationships that contribute to the development of education as a world process (that is, they take education beyond the boundaries of national cultures and make its mediator of their dialogue, a space where different cultures converge).

3. The educational process is complex, so all educational models, as it were, accumulate the development of previous models. The dynamics of the development of educational models is not a direct, progressive development, but constant return movements, cycles and periods of critical reassessment of the values ​​of education.

4. The ideas of the content and organization of education are associated with a complex of leading ideas that dominate the consciousness of society. At the same time, educational models are relatively autonomous and can develop (if they are really culturally compatible) regardless of the political situation, since educational systems can be guided by certain universal values ​​and ideals. This allows educational models to be valuable in themselves and change, ■ / obeying their own logic and internal laws of self-development.

Thus, educational systems should have their own cultural imperative, directed to the inner world of the individual and its creative potential, therefore not subject to temporary socio-cultural influences, ahead of the present and constantly facing the future.

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Modeling - how innovative approach in teaching preschool children

Kokshetau - 2016

Content

1. Introduction

1.1 Relevance of the modeling method

1. 2 Psychological and pedagogical coverage of the modeling method.

2. Modeling in the educational process

2.1 Types of models

2.2 Modeling in a speech development lesson

2.3 Modeling as a way to develop cognitive interest in children

Conclusion.

List of used literature

Relevance of the topic.

The new millennium needs a new modern education system that would meet the requirements of the state and society, that is, it is necessary to keep up with the times. Today, as many scientists around the world note, instead of basic education, which served as a foundation for a person for all his professional activity, “education for life” is required. In our time, the profession of a teacher does not tolerate lagging behind the times. Therefore, in educational activities our kindergarten combines time-tested technologies and new developments. I build my work in an innovative direction: "The modeling method in teaching preschoolers." Modeling is one of the relatively "molazy" methods of mental training.

The relevance of using visual modeling in working with preschoolers is that:

A preschool child is very plastic and easy to learn, but most children are characterized by rapid fatigue and loss of interest in the lesson. The use of visual modeling is of interest and helps to solve this problem.

The use of symbolic analogy facilitates and speeds up the process of memorization and assimilation of material, forms methods of working with memory.

Using a graphical analogy, children learn to see the main thing, to systematize the knowledge gained.

The formation of visual modeling skills occurs in a certain sequence with an increase in the proportion of independent participation of preschoolers in this process. From here, one can distinguish the following stages of visual modeling:

Assimilation and analysis of sensory material;

Translating it into a sign-symbolic language.

Using visual modeling in my work, I teach children:

obtain information, conduct research, make comparisons, draw up a clear internal plan of mental actions, speech utterance;

formulate and express judgments, draw conclusions;

the use of visual modeling has a positive effect on the development of not only speech processes, but also non-speech ones: attention, memory, thinking.

The modeling method is effective because it allows the teacher to keep the cognitive interest of preschoolers throughout the lesson. It is the cognitive interest of children that contributes to active mental activity, long-term and stable concentration of attention. With the help of schemes and models, preschoolers learn to overcome various difficulties, while experiencing positive emotions - surprise, the joy of success - give them confidence in their abilities.

In the preparatory period, I use the following games: “What does it look like?”, “Who is hiding?”

At the initial stage of work, at a younger preschool age, models are used that are similar to real objects, characters, then you can use geometric shapes that resemble the replaced object in their shape and color. Starting from middle group I use models with a minimum of details, as well as the use of mnemonics for compiling descriptive stories, retelling fairy tales, guessing riddles, and independently compiling fairy tales by children of older preschool age.

The versatility of the support circuits allows them to be used in various types of children's activities. Modeling is used in directly organized activities (in educational areas) and in independent activities of children to generalize their ideas about the environment.

To successfully achieve the goals in the activities of an educational institution, a variety of material resources and trained personnel are needed, as well as the desire of the teachers themselves to work efficiently and creatively. In recent years, as a result of the introduction of the achievements of psychological and pedagogical science and advanced pedagogical experience into the work of educators, many new effective forms and methods of improving professional excellence teachers. The experience of our kindergarten shows that the most effective forms are master classes, workshops, open viewings of organized learning activities and integrated events.

At the present stage of the work of the preschool educational institution, the topic of interaction of all participants in the educational process is relevant. The most significant direction is cooperation with the families of pupils.

At present and in my future work, I will continue to apply the modeling method in the integration of the educational process.

Psychological and pedagogical coverage of the modeling method.

Many well-known teachers deal with the problem of modeling. In modern didactic literature, the idea of ​​modeling as one of the teaching methods is widespread, although, as a scientific method, modeling has been known for a very long time.

V. A. Shtoff defines a model as “a means of displaying, reproducing one or another part of reality with the aim of its deeper knowledge from observations and experiment to various forms of theoretical generalizations.”

V. V. Kraevsky defines a model as “a system of elements that reproduces certain aspects, connections, functions of the subject of study”. Friedman notes that “in science, models are used to study any objects (phenomena, processes), to solve a wide variety of scientific problems and thereby obtain some new information. Therefore, a model is usually defined as a certain object (system), the study of which serves as a means for obtaining knowledge about another object (original).

Modeling issues are considered in the works of a logical and philosophical plan from the standpoint of using models to study certain properties of the original, or its transformation, or the replacement of the original with models in the process of any activity (I.B. Novikov, V.A. Shtoff, etc. ).

Wide use among teachers of preschool education, such views in the 90s of the 20th century led to the fact that preschoolers often came to the 1st grade in these years, brought up in positions of rejection of systematic education and purposeful intellectual development in a preschool educational institution. And this discrepancy had a particularly painful effect on school education in the two leading subjects in elementary school: mathematics and the Russian language.

An analysis of the literature in which the term “model” is used shows that this term is used in two meanings: 1) in the meaning of a theory and 2) in the meaning of an object (or a process as a special case of an object) that is reflected by this theory. That is, on the one hand, the model has an abstracting character in relation to the object (abstract model), and on the other hand, it is concretizing (concrete model). Consistently considering the main meanings of the term "model", the author of the monograph "Modeling and Philosophy" V.A. Stoff offers the following definition: “A model is such a mentally represented or materially realized system that, displaying and reproducing an object, is able to replace it in such a way that its study gives us new information about this object.”

Modeling is one of the means of cognition of reality. The model is used to study any objects (phenomena, processes), to solve various problems and obtain new information. Therefore, a model is a certain object (system), the use of which serves to obtain knowledge about another object (original). For example, a geographic map.

The visibility of models is based on the following important regularity: the creation of a model is based on the preliminary creation of a mental model - visual images of the objects being modeled, that is, the subject creates a mental image of this object, and then (together with the children) builds a material or figurative model (visual). Mental models are created by adults and can be transformed into visual models with the help of certain practical actions (in which children can also participate), children can also work with already created visual models.

To master modeling as a method of scientific knowledge, it is necessary to create models. Create with children and ensure that children take a direct and active part in the production of models. On the basis of such work, changes that are important for the full-fledged mental development of children occur - the mastery of a system of mental actions in the process of internalization.

Modeling is directly related to the model and is a system that provides knowledge about another similar one. Cognitive transformations are performed on the object - the model, but the results are related to the real object. An idealized object is also a kind of modeling, but an imaginary constructed object that has no analogue in reality. Modeling is a logical operation, with the help of which an examination of a given object and characteristics that are inaccessible to perception is made. Basically, models are: subject, subject-schematic and graphic.

The concept of "model" means different things: a certain construction, a reproduction of an object with a specific purpose, an ideal sample. In order to fulfill these properties, the modeling and modeling object must be dependent on similarity. The reproduction is not complete, but the object is presented in a form for analysis. It can be ideal or material in natural or artificial form.The content of the object is determined by what was obtained in the process of modeling.It can represent things, properties or relationships of a structural, functional or genetic type.Models have: visibility, abstractness and fantasy, hypotheticality and similarity "Meaning the properties of the object being reproduced, models can be: substrate, structural and functional. They are also: cognitive and non-cognitive (educational). They have a creative, representative and heuristic function. Providing penetration into the object and reproduction of its properties and relationships, the model embodies the goal and is a tool to achieve it. Modeling involves preliminary knowledge about the object, the transfer of knowledge from the model to the object, the practical verification of the acquired knowledge. Modeling always has a pre-fixed goal and is not just a form of materialization of a relationship previously discovered in the mind, but the act of constructing it, which gives it a heuristic character. Cognitive models provide the acquisition of new knowledge, and educational models - to master this knowledge.

Types of models

For preschoolers, different types of models are used:

1. First of all, subject, in which design features, proportions, the relationship of parts of any objects are reproduced. These can be technical toys that reflect the principle of the mechanism; building models. Subject model - a globe of the earth or an aquarium that models an ecosystem in miniature.

2. Object-schematic models. In them, essential features, connections and relationships are presented in the form of objects-models. Widespread subject-schematic models are also calendars of nature.

3. Graphic models (graphs, diagrams, etc.) convey generalized (conditionally) signs, connections and relationships of phenomena. An example of such a model can be a weather calendar kept by children, using special icons-symbols to designate phenomena in inanimate and animate nature. Or a plan of a room, a puppet corner, a route scheme (the way from home to kindergarten), labyrinths.

For the purpose of acquaintance, as well as fixing the images of models, didactic, plot-role-playing games are used, games that satisfy children's curiosity, help to involve the child in the active assimilation of the world around them, help to master ways of knowing the connections between objects and phenomena. The model, exposing the connections and relationships necessary for cognition, simplifies the object, represents only it. individual parties, individual links. Consequently, the model cannot be the only method of cognition: it is used when it is necessary to reveal to children one or another essential content in the object. This means that the condition for the introduction of models into the process of cognition is the preliminary familiarization of children with real objects, phenomena, their external features, specifically represented by connections and mediations in the surrounding reality. The introduction of a model requires a certain level of formation of mental activity: the ability to analyze, abstract the features of objects, phenomena; figurative thinking that allows you to replace objects; the ability to make connections. And although all these skills are formed in children in the process of using models in cognitive activity, in order to introduce them, master the model itself and use it for the purpose of further cognition, a level of differentiated perception, figurative thinking, coherent speech and a rich vocabulary is already high enough for a preschooler. Thus, the very development of the model is presented in the form of participation of children in the creation of the model, participation in the process of replacing objects with schematic images. This preliminary assimilation of the model is a condition for its use to reveal the connection reflected in it. Visual modeling stimulates the development of children's research abilities, draws their attention to the features of the object, helps to determine the methods of sensory examination of the object and consolidate the results of the examination in a visual form.

The formation of independence, sociability, the ability to operate with language symbols will help the child in his studies at school. So, sign-symbolic activity is used at school all the time. Each subject has its own system of signs and symbols. With their help, the student encodes the studied information. Modeling occupies an important place in the educational activity of a younger student. It is a necessary component of the ability to learn, and correct speech- one of the indicators of a child's readiness for schooling, the key to the successful development of literacy and reading. The introduction of visual models into the learning process makes it possible to more purposefully develop children's speech, enrich their active vocabulary, consolidate word-formation skills, form and improve the ability to use various sentence structures in speech, describe objects, and compose a story. In the course of using the visual modeling technique, children get acquainted with a graphical way of providing information - a model.

In the senior and preparatory group, visual modeling methods include: designation of objects using various substitutes; use and creation of different types of conditionally schematic representation of real objects and objects; the ability to read and create a graphic representation of the features of objects belonging to a particular class, species, genus (transport, plants, animals, etc.); the ability to navigate in space according to its schematic representation; the ability to create a plan of real space (plan of a room, a plot of a kindergarten, a street, etc.);

the ability to use the spatio-temporal model when retelling and compiling stories; self-creation of models according to their own design.

Schemes and models of various structures (syllables, words, sentences, texts) gradually teach children to observe the language. Schematization and modeling help the child to see how many and what sounds are in a word, the sequence of their arrangement, the connection of words in a sentence and text. This develops interest in words, speech sounds, communication, improves the child's speech and thinking activity. Organizing work to familiarize children with objects and natural phenomena, I pay attention to the fact that children can notice and highlight their main properties, as well as explain certain laws of nature. Diagrams, symbols, models help with this. Visual modeling in this case is the specific means that teaches to analyze, highlight the essential, teaches observation and curiosity.

It is better to start working with maps, diagrams and symbols by learning to compose descriptive stories about vegetables, fruits, clothes, dishes, seasons. At first, when compiling stories, it is proposed to move the card with the described object from point to point (windows with a schematic representation of the properties and features, distinctive features of the object). This is done to facilitate the completion of the task, since it is easier for children to describe an object when they directly see the desired point on the map next to the described object. Then you can separate them from each other: hold a card with the described object in your hand and tell in order in accordance with the points of the diagram map.

Organizing work with children to develop imagination and the ability for visual modeling in visual activity, tasks were offered where the children had to analyze appearance objects, highlight characteristic features, use the analysis of diagrams depicting a characteristic feature. And then it was proposed to create detailed, close to real images images

Modeling in a lesson on the development of speech

S.L. Rubinstein says that speech is the activity of communication - expression, influence, message - through language, speech is language in action. Speech, both one with language and different from it, is the unity of a certain activity - communication - and a certain content, which designates and, designating, reflects being. More precisely, speech is a form of existence of consciousness (thoughts, feelings, experiences) for another, serving as a means of communication with him, and a form of a generalized reflection of reality, or a form of existence of thinking. The development of human thinking is essentially connected with the development of articulate sound speech. Since the relation of the word and the signified in sound speech is more abstract than the relation of the gesture to what it represents or points to, sound speech presupposes more high development thinking; on the other hand, more generalized and abstract thinking, in turn, needs sound speech for its expression. Thus, they are interconnected and in the process of historical development were interdependent.

Among the problems of children's speech development, two main ones are singled out: speech creation and dialogue as the most important components of communicative amateur activity, the most important areas of personal self-development. Creativity in speech activity manifests itself at different levels to varying degrees. A person does not invent his own sound system and, as a rule, does not invent morphemes (roots, prefixes, suffixes, endings). He learns to correctly pronounce sounds and words in accordance with the norms of his native language, build sentences in accordance with the rules of grammar, formulate statements in the form of texts of a certain structure (with a beginning, middle, ending) and a certain type (description, narration, reasoning). But by learning these language tools and forms of speech that exist in culture, the child is creative, plays with sounds, rhymes, meanings, experiments and constructs, creates his own original words, phrases, grammatical constructions, texts that he has never heard from anyone. In this form, the child learns language patterns. He comes to fluency in the language, linguistic instinct through an elementary awareness of linguistic reality. He comes to normal through the experiment (through its violation).

Of particular importance in the speech development of preschoolers is the dialogue of peers. It is here that children truly feel equal, free, relaxed. Here they learn self-organization, self-activity, self-control. In dialogue, content is born that none of the partners possesses separately, it is born only in interaction. In a dialogue with a peer, to the greatest extent, one has to focus on the characteristics of a partner, take into account his capabilities (often limited) and therefore arbitrarily build his statement using contextual speech. Dialogue with a peer is a new fascinating area of ​​pedagogy of cooperation, pedagogy of self-development. Here, direct instructions, educational motivation, and strict regulation are inappropriate. And yet, dialogue with a peer, as studies show, needs to be taught. Teach dialogue, teach language games, teach verbal creativity.

Effective method solving the problem of the development of the child's intellect and speech - modeling, thanks to which children learn to generalize the essential features of objects, connections and relationships in reality. It is advisable to start teaching modeling at preschool age, since, according to L.S. Vygotsky, F. A. Sokhin, O. S. Ushakova, preschool age is the period of the most intensive formation and development of the personality. Developing, the child actively learns the basics of his native language and speech, his speech activity increases.

An important role in the development of coherent speech of children is played by didactic games for describing objects: “Tell me which one”, “Who will know and name more”, “Guess from the description”, “Wonderful bag”, “Toy store”. These games help teach children to name characteristic features, qualities, actions; encourage children to actively participate in expressing their opinions; form the ability to coherently and consistently describe the subject. Didactic games for the formation of ideas about the sequence of actions of characters by solving the corresponding pictures-schemes: “Tell a story from pictures”, “Tell me what first, what then”, “I will start, and you will finish”, “Who knows, he continues further” . Such games contribute to a coherent storytelling, a consistent description of the plot of the work.

The modeling method is based on the principle of substitution: the child replaces a real object with another object, its image, some conventional sign. Initially, the ability to replace is formed in children in the game (a pebble becomes a candy, sand becomes a porridge for a doll, and he himself becomes a dad, a driver, an astronaut). The experience of substitution is also accumulated during the development of speech, in visual activity.

In the course of using the visual modeling technique, children get acquainted with a graphical way of providing information - a model. The use of modeling in the development of speech has two aspects:

) serves as a certain method of cognition;

) is a program for analyzing new phenomena.

It is advisable to conduct classes on the development of coherent speech of children on tasks aimed at identifying the ability to answer questions in a full sentence, compose a story-description according to the model, and conduct a dialogue.

The use of visual modeling in working with preschoolers is that: a preschooler is very plastic and easy to learn, but our children are characterized by rapid fatigue and loss of interest in the lesson. The use of visual modeling is of interest and helps to solve this problem. The use of symbolic analogy facilitates and speeds up the process of memorization and assimilation of material, forms methods of working with memory. Using a graphical analogy, we teach children to see the main thing, to systematize the knowledge gained. Visual modeling technology requires compliance with the following learning principles:

) developing and educating nature of education;

) scientific nature of the content and methods of the educational process;

) systematic and consistent;

) consciousness, creative activity and independence;

) visibility;

) availability;

) a rational combination of collective and individual forms of work.

The development of coherent speech is an important task of the speech education of children. This is due to its social significance and role in the formation of personality. In connected speech, the main, communicative functions of language and speech are realized. Coherent speech is the highest form of speech of mental activity, which determines the level of speech and mental development of the child.

At present, there is no need to prove that the development of speech is most closely connected with the development of consciousness, knowledge of the world around us, and the development of the personality as a whole. The central link, with the help of which the teacher can solve a variety of cognitive and creative tasks, are figurative means, more precisely, model representations.



Forms of work with the model

1. An object model in the form of a physical structure of an object or objects that are naturally connected (a planar model of a figure that reproduces its main parts, design features, proportions, ratios of parts in space).

2. Object-schematic model (sign). Here, the essential components identified in the object of cognition and the connections between them are indicated with the help of objects - substitutes and graphic signs. (for senior dosh.age - calendars)

3. Graphic models (graphs, formulas, diagrams)

4. Analog model. The model and the original are described by a single mathematical relationship (electrical models for studying mechanical, acoustic, hydrodynamic phenomena)

Based on the models, you can create a variety of didactic games.

Using picture models to organize various types of oriented activities for children.

Models can be used in the classroom, in collaboration with the teacher and independent children's activities.

Parents and children can be involved in the creation of models: the relationship is educator + parent + child

Orientation in time

For a child, the reflection of time is a more difficult task than the perception of space.


T.D. Richterman identifies at least three various aspects temporary representations:

the adequacy of the reflection of time intervals and their correlation with activities (the ability to organize one's activities in time);

understanding of words denoting time (from simpler “yesterday-today-tomorrow” to more complex “past-present-future”, etc.);

understanding the sequence of events, actions, phenomena

System of work according to T.D. Richterman

Familiarization with the parts of the day on a visual basis using pictures, reflecting the activities of children in different parts of the day

Orientation in landscape pictures according to the main natural indicators: the color of the sky, the position of the Sun in the sky, the degree of illumination of the day

The transition to the conventions of landscape pictures using a color model, where each time of day is indicated by a certain color

As a generalization of knowledge about time - acquaintance with the calendar as a system of measures of time

The system of work according to E.I. Shcherbakova

She developed a three-dimensional model of time in the form of a spiral, each turn of which, depending on the solution of a specific didactic task, clearly showed the movement of changing processes, time phenomena, properties of time (one-dimensionality, fluidity, irreversibility, periodicity)

The “days of the week” model, similar to the first, but differed in that its dimensions are larger and one turn of the spiral includes seven segments sequentially colored in different colors, correlated with certain days of the week.

The “season of the year” model differs from the previous one in a significantly larger size and four-color solution.

The sequence of teaching temporary concepts


Methods of familiarization with temporary concepts

Development of a sense of time in children of senior preschool age

Day models for different age groups

Model of the day (according to A.Davidchuk)

A circle with an arrow, divided into 4 colored segments: morning - pink (the sun is rising); day - yellow (light and the sun warms brightly); evening - blue (darkens0; night - black (dark). Day and night occupy most of the sectors, because they last longer in time.

Working with the model:

Find the corresponding sector for the named part of the day

Reproduce the sequence of parts of the day, starting with any of them

Set the number of parts per day

Determine the "neighbors" of each part of the day

Select the appropriate picture for the sector (landscape or activity)

Indicate the lived part of the day on the model.

Model "yesterday-today-tomorrow"

3 identical circles (based on the model of the day, arranged one after the other horizontally)

Working with the model:

Show time segments "yesterday morning", "this afternoon", "tomorrow evening", etc.

Show the time when an event happened

Write a sequential story about the event

Show “was”, “will be”, “is happening now”, etc.

Model "parts of the day"

Consists of plot pictures showing human activity in different segments of the day

Purpose: Acquaintance of children with units of time, teaching orientation in parts of the day

D / game "When does this happen?" (parts of the day)

Purpose: To fix the parts of the day and their sequence.

Material: pictures: toothbrush, pillow, plate, toy, etc.; pictures with actions: morning exercises, lesson, watching an evening fairy tale, a sleeping child.

In front of the children are pictures that depict the activities of people or objects corresponding to one or another part of the day. The guys are invited to consider them and correlate them with the corresponding sectors on the model.

Model of the week (according to R. Chudnova)

A circle with an arrow, on which are placed small circles (stripes) with dots, numbers from 1 to 7, or with color substitutes (according to the spectrum of the rainbow) indicating the days of the week. An extended model is possible, which also includes seasons, days, etc.

Working with the model:

Determine what each character means

Name the days of the week, etc. in order, in reverse order, starting with any

Name the symbols that the arrow shows

Determine the order of characters by account (what day of the week, etc.)

Name the missing character among the named

Determine the total number of characters (7 days of the week, 4 parts of the day, 3 months - season, 12 months - year)

watch model, the inner circle of which reflects the model of the day - is divided into four sectors, the middle circle is the days of the week (seven sectors with the colors of the rainbow), the outer circle is the model of the year (twelve sectors painted in shades of colors characteristic of the seasons)

Game manual "Circle of time"

Formation of ideas about time in children of senior preschool age.

1. Introduce children to units of time.

2. Learn to navigate in parts of the day, days of the week, seasons, highlight their sequence and use the words: yesterday, today, tomorrow, earlier, soon.

3. Fix the names of the days of the week, months.

4. Develop speech activity in children.

5. Develop children's cognitive needs.

Game: When does it happen? (seasons)

Purpose: To consolidate the features of the seasons and their sequence.

Material: pictures with seasonal features and activities.

Stroke: In front of the children are pictures that depict the activities of people or objects corresponding to a particular season. The guys are invited to consider them and correlate them with the corresponding sectors on the model.

(second option)

Children are invited to guess the riddle and place the chip in the corresponding sector on the model:

The snow is melting, the meadow has come to life.

The day is coming - when does it happen? I.t.

Game: "Determine the day of the week"

Purpose: To consolidate the names and sequence of the days of the week.

Children are invited to answer cognitive questions, for example: "Determine what color is Thursday, if Monday is marked in red?"; “Show the weekend on the model”; "What is the color of the environment?"; "Determine what day of the week it is and put the chip in the appropriate pocket."

Complication: the guys are offered cards with the names of the days of the week, they need to read and arrange the cards in pockets according to the day of the week.

“Design the sequence of days of the week with numbers”, “What will be Friday”, “Russell Smeshariki by day of the week”, “Which of Smeshariki will come to visit us on Friday?”, “What day of the week will Nyusha come to visit us? » i.d.

For the game with Smeshariki, preliminary work must first be carried out. The guys determine that on Monday Nyusha comes to visit us, because. it is pink, which corresponds to the red color of Monday, on Tuesday - Kopatych, it looks like the orange color of Tuesday, etc., thus, all the days of the week were distributed, but since there is no green smeshariki, it was decided that Thursday would be the day of the Hedgehog, he lives under the tree. Thus, Smeshariki help memorize the sequence and names of the days of the week.

Game: "All year round"

Purpose: To consolidate the names and sequence of the seasons and months.

Children are offered tasks such as “Find November on the model”, “Name the month indicated in blue”, “Show the winter and spring months on the model”, “Show the month that starts winter and ends the year”, “Distribute the names of the months in order” , “Design the autumn months”, etc.

Game: "Count"

Purpose: To consolidate the ability to perform arithmetic operations.

On the model in a small and medium circle there are numbers, in a large outer circle an arithmetic sign, for example +, the teacher, shows with arrows which numbers need to be added, and the child performs an action with sets the corresponding number in a large circle.

Model "room" for orientation in space

Features of the perception of space by preschoolers

Spatial perception in preschool age is marked by a number of features:

- a concrete-sensual character: the child is guided by his body and determines everything relative to his own body;

- the most difficult thing for a child is to distinguish between the right and left hands, because the distinction is built on the basis of the functional advantage of the right hand over the left, which is developed in the work of functional activity;

- the relative nature of spatial relations: in order for a child to determine how an object relates to another person, he needs to take the place of the object in his mind;

- children orient themselves more easily in static than in motion;

- it is easier to determine spatial relationships to objects that are at a close distance from the child.

The system of work on the development of spatial representations among preschoolers (T.A. Museybova)

1) orientation "on oneself"; mastering the "scheme of one's own body";

2) orientation "on external objects"; selection of various sides of objects: front, back, top, bottom, side;

3) development and application of the verbal reference system in the main spatial directions: forward - backward, up - down, right - left;

4) determination of the location of objects in space “from oneself”, when the starting point of reference is fixed on the subject himself;

5) determination of one's own position in space (“standing points”) relative to various objects, while the reference point is localized on another person or on some object;

6) determination of the spatial placement of objects relative to each other;

7) determination of the spatial arrangement of objects when oriented on a plane, i.e. in two-dimensional space;

determination of their placement relative to each other and in relation to the plane on which they are placed

Model "room"

Consists of a room layout and pieces of doll furniture

First, the child examines and examines the layout of the doll's room, remembers the location of the rooms and furniture in it. Further, with the help of a doll, he plays, moving around the rooms of the doll’s apartment, accompanying his actions with descriptions (the doll went into the room on the left, stopped at the closet to the right of the window, etc.) The teacher himself can ask questions and give instructions, directing visual perception child (come to the puppet table, etc.) and activating various spatial concepts in speech (left, right, further, near, above, below, etc.)

Model "number houses"

"A house where signs and numbers live"
(number houses)

Purpose of application:

To consolidate the ability of children to make numbers from two smaller ones; add and subtract numbers;

To give children ideas about the composition and invariance of a number, magnitude, subject to differences in summation;

Learn or consolidate the ability to compare numbers (greater than, less than, equal to).

Model structure:

the model is a floor house, on each floor there is a different number of windows where signs and numbers will live, but since the house is magical, signs and numbers can only settle in the house with the help of children.

Model "numerical ladder"

Numeric ladder

Goal: the formation of computational skills within 10; development of ideas about the number series, about the composition of the number

A staircase consisting of steps of a different color in each row. 10 rows in total: bottom row - 10 segments, top row - 1 segment. Each row corresponds to a certain number from 1 to 10, and reflects their composition.

Working with the model:

Acquaintance with the composition of the number by the number of segments in each rung of the ladder

Counting up and down stairs

Determining the place of a number in a number row (ladder) - 3 is before 4, but after 2, etc.

Definition of "neighbors" of a number

Counting in direct and reverse order

Number Comparison

Hourglass Model

Visual three-dimensional model "hourglass" (from plastic bottles)

Purpose of application:

teach children to measure time using a model hourglass; actively participate in the experimentation process.

Model structure: three-dimensional model.

In order to be able to measure time, it is necessary to open the cap of the bottom of one of the bottles and pour sand into it exactly as much as it is necessary so that in 1 minute the sand from one compartment of the clock passes into another. This must be done through experimentation.

Description of working with the model:

using the hourglass model, you can first conduct an educational introductory session. Show the children pictures of different hourglasses, then demonstrate the model, tell about the origin of the hourglass, why they are needed, how to use them, how they work. Then, together with the children, be sure to conduct experiments: for example, an experiment proving the accuracy of the clock.

Visual planar model "Counting cake"

Purpose of application:

Teach children to solve arithmetic problems and develop the cognitive abilities of the child;

Learn to identify mathematical relationships between quantities, navigate them.

Model structure, the model includes:

1. Five sets of "sweet counting parts", each of which is divided into parts (both equal and different parts). Each countable cake in the form of a circle has its own color.

2. Ovals cut out of white cardboard, which represent "whole" and "part". In a game situation, they will be called plates, where children will lay out pieces of the counting.

Description of working with the model:

in an arithmetic problem, mathematical relations can be viewed as a "whole" and a "part".

First, you need to give children ideas about the concept of "whole" and "part".

Put a counting cake in front of the children on a plate that means "whole", a counting cake (all its parts, say that mom baked the whole cake and that we put it strictly on a plate that means "whole". Now we will cut the cake into two parts, each of them Let's call it "part". Explain that now that the whole (the whole cake) has been divided into parts (into 2 pieces), then the whole is now gone, but there are only 2 parts. Which cannot remain on someone else's plate and must be put in their places - plates indicating "part". One piece on one plate, the other piece on another plate. Then put the 2 pieces back together and show that the whole is again. Thus, we have demonstrated that the connection of the parts gives the whole, and the subtraction of the part from the whole gives part.

Preschool education is the first step in the education system, therefore the main task of teachers working with preschoolers is to form an interest in the learning process and its motivation, development and correction of speech. Today, it is quite definitely possible to identify the urgent contradictions between the normative content of education common to all pupils and the individual capabilities of children.

The main goal of speech development is to bring it to the norm determined for each age stage, although individual differences in the speech level of children can be extremely large. Every child should learn in kindergarten to express his thoughts in a meaningful, grammatically correct, coherent and consistent way.

The problem of speech insufficiency of preschoolers is that at present the child spends little time in the company of adults (more and more at the computer, at the TV or with his toys), rarely listens to stories and fairy tales from the lips of mom and dad.

The relevance of this topic can be seen in the fact that visual modeling makes it easier for middle-aged children to master coherent speech, thus, the use of symbols, pictograms, substitutes, schemes facilitates memorization and increases memory capacity and, in general, develops children's speech activity.

In middle-aged preschoolers, the development of imagination and figurative thinking are the main directions of mental development, and it was advisable to dwell on the development of imagination and the formation of the ability for visual modeling in different types activities: upon acquaintance with fiction; when introducing children to nature. These activities attract children and are age appropriate.

It is important to choose the optimal form of classes that can ensure the effectiveness of work, the main goal of which is the development of the intellectual abilities of children, their mental development. And the main thing in this case will be the mastery of various means of solving cognitive problems. Development will occur only in those cases when the child finds himself in a situation where there is a cognitive task for him and solves it. It is very important that the emotional attitude be connected with the cognitive task through an imaginary situation that arises as a result of a game or symbolic designation. To do this, it is advisable to conduct cognitive games-classes with the inclusion of problematic situations, riddle tasks, any fabulous or educational material related to one plot, where tasks for the development of imagination, memory, and thinking are intertwined.

Schemes and models serve as didactic material in the work of a teacher in the development of coherent speech of children. They should be used to: enrich vocabulary; in teaching storytelling; when retelling a work of art; when guessing and compiling riddles; when learning poetry.

Based on the experience of leading teachers, when organizing visual modeling classes, diagrams and tables are used to compose descriptive stories about toys, dishes, clothes, vegetables and fruits, birds, animals, insects. These schemes help children to independently determine the main properties and features of the subject under consideration, to establish the sequence of presentation of the identified features; enrich children's vocabulary.

As a result of work on the development of coherent speech, it can be concluded that the use of visual modeling in speech development classes is an important link in the development of coherent speech of children. At each age stage, children develop:

the ability to grammatically correctly, coherently and consistently express their thoughts;

the ability to retell short works;

improvement of dialogic speech;

the ability to actively participate in the conversation, it is understandable for listeners to answer questions and ask them;

the ability to describe an object, a picture;

the ability to dramatize small tales;

nurture the desire to speak like an adult.

In the course of using the visual modeling method, children get acquainted with a graphical way of providing information - a model. Symbols of various nature can act as conditional substitutes (elements of the model): geometric figures; symbolic images of objects (symbols, silhouettes, contours, pictograms); plans and symbols used in them; contrasting frame - the method of fragmentary storytelling and many others.

A story based on a plot picture requires the child to be able to identify the main characters or objects of the picture, trace their relationship and interaction, note the features of the compositional background of the picture, as well as the ability to think out the reasons for the occurrence of this situation, that is, to compose the beginning of the story, and its consequences - that is, the end story.

In practice, self-composed stories by children are mostly simple enumerations. actors or objects in the picture.

The work to overcome these shortcomings and develop the skill of storytelling in a picture consists of 3 stages: the selection of fragments of the picture that are significant for the development of the plot; determining the relationship between them; combining fragments into a single plot.

The elements of the model are, respectively, pictures - fragments, silhouette images of significant objects of the picture and schematic images of fragments of the picture. Schematic images are also elements of visual models, which are the plan of stories for a series of paintings. When children have mastered the skill of building a coherent statement, creative elements are included in the models of retellings and stories - the child is invited to come up with the beginning or end of the story, unusual characters are included in the fairy tale or plot of the picture, unusual qualities are assigned to the characters, etc., and then compose a story with taking these changes into account.

Thus, the use of substitutes, symbols, models in various activities is a source of development of mental abilities and creativity in preschool childhood. Since at this age the development of imagination and figurative thinking are the main directions of mental development, it was advisable to dwell on the development of imagination and the formation of the ability for visual modeling in various activities: when getting acquainted with fiction; when introducing children to nature, in drawing classes. These activities attract children and are age appropriate. Also, in these conditions, it was important to choose the optimal form of classes that could ensure the effectiveness of work, the main goal of which is the development of the intellectual abilities of children, their mental development. And the main thing in this case will be the mastery of various means of solving cognitive problems.

CONCLUSION

In children of senior preschool age, the development of speech reaches high level. Most children correctly pronounce all the sounds of their native language, can regulate the strength of the voice, the pace of speech, the intonation of the question, joy, surprise. By the senior preschool age, the child accumulates a significant vocabulary. The enrichment of vocabulary (the vocabulary of the language, the totality of words used by the child) continues, the stock of words similar (synonyms) or opposite (antonyms) in meaning, polysemantic words is increasing.

The development of the vocabulary is characterized not only by an increase in the number of words used, but also by the child's understanding of the different meanings of the same word (multi-valued). Movement in this regard is extremely important, since it is associated with an increasingly complete awareness of the semantics of the words that they already use. At the senior preschool age, the most important stage of the speech development of children is basically completed - the assimilation of the grammatical system of the language. Increasing specific gravity simple common sentences, compound and complex sentences. Children develop a critical attitude to grammatical errors, the ability to control their speech.

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