Fundamentals of modeling the innovative development of an enterprise

Innovative development involves the intensification of innovative activity, the development of technologies and the formation of unique innovations, as well as their commercialization and distribution. At the micro level, it is based on building up the innovative potential of a business entity and activating the innovative processes, research and development that take place on its basis.

Today, thanks to the development of scientific methods of cognition and research, as well as the informatization of science, it has become possible to model innovative development. It is based on the tools of such branches of science as:

• mathematical analysis;
• linear and dynamic programming;
• queuing theory;
• probability theory;
• game theory;
• parametric programming;
• stochastic programming, etc.

Remark 1

In practice, simulation modeling is most often used for high-tech enterprises. Today, when modeling innovative development, it is most often customary to refer to models of a linear and non-linear nature.

Linear models (chain and combined) are based on the implementation of successive stages of creating innovative products. Nonlinear (integrated) models allow for the possibility of parallel implementation of all or some groups of actions performed in order to create innovative products. To a greater extent, they focus on the nature of the interaction between the subjects of the innovation process.

As practice shows, scientists in most cases prefer non-linear modeling of innovative development. An example of such a model is shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Nonlinear model of the fourth generation innovation process. Author24 - online exchange of student papers

Integrated modeling, despite its popularity, does not allow, however, to determine the critical areas of the innovation process, the success of which directly affects the results of innovation development. This is the main disadvantage of models of this type.

Basic models of innovative development

Over the past few decades, six most clearly defined models of innovative (technological) development have emerged that form the foundation for the transformation of economic systems (Figure 2). Their selection is based on the mechanism of integration scientific discoveries and technology, technology and production, production and society. Let's consider the presented models in more detail.

Figure 2. Main models of innovative (technological) development. Author24 - online exchange of student papers

The “innovation environment” model involves the connection and integration of large private capital, science, modernly equipped diversified enterprises and a large number highly qualified employees. Through the combination of these factors, the formation of the process of technological development is ensured.

A distinctive feature of this type of model is a high degree of decentralization and concentration of factors in a small area. An example is Silicon Valley, located in California, USA.

characteristic feature The transnational model is the initiation of innovations and their bringing to technological and industrial implementation by large transnational companies that have the necessary capital for this and have a complex of modernly equipped enterprises with qualified personnel. Often such companies have their own research centers and laboratories. They also finance similar developments based on university platforms. Generating everything necessary elements"innovation environment", TNCs slow down the network of decentralized interconnections of the system.

The model of "state protectionism" is characterized by the provision of support for innovative development by the government of a state in the conditions of a national market closed to foreign companies through national private firms. The most striking example of the use of this model is the market of Japan and North Korea. The experience of these countries testifies to the initial support of national companies within the country and subsequent assistance to them in entering world markets. Within the framework of this model, companies initially copy innovations, however, with the accumulation of their own experience in innovative development and setting technological priorities, national companies move to own production high technologies.

The model of innovative development of the fourth type, in contrast to the model of "state protectionism", suggests the need for technological progress in continuous interaction with the world market. It found its embodiment in France, whose government supported national enterprises in open competition in the international information market.

The model of innovative development of the fifth type is characterized by the orientation of technological development towards the achievement of military advantages. This model has a very high potential. It is believed that it is able to maintain momentum state development in the field of high technologies, due to which the establishment and maintenance of certain priorities of the country in the general world disposition is ensured. At the same time, this model has certain disadvantages:

• moral dilemma;
• technical problem.

The moral dilemma involves the immorality of using scientific achievements to create murder weapons, and the technical problem boils down to the secrecy and secrecy of military technologies, as a result of which innovations cannot be extended to society as a whole.

The sixth model of innovative development is the European type model. It involves cooperation between different governments and private companies in different states.

Remark 2

Each of the presented models of innovative development has its own advantages and disadvantages. AT modern world not all of them find their embodiment in their pure form.

Modeling - how innovative approach in teaching children preschool age

Kokshetau - 2016

Content

1. Introduction

1.1 Relevance of the modeling method

1. 2 Psychological and pedagogical coverage of the modeling method.

2. Simulation in educational process

2.1 Types of models

2.2 Modeling in a speech development lesson

2.3 Modeling as a way to develop cognitive interest in children

Conclusion.

List of used literature

Relevance of the topic.

The new millennium needs a new modern education system that would meet the requirements of the state and society, that is, it is necessary to keep up with the times. Today, as many scientists around the world note, instead of basic education, which served a person as the foundation of all his professional activity, “education for life” is required. The main mechanism for the activity of a developing preschool is the search and development of innovations that contribute to qualitative changes in the work of a preschool institution. In our time, the profession of a teacher does not tolerate lagging behind the times. Therefore, the educational activities of our kindergarten combine time-tested technologies and new developments. I build my work in an innovative direction: "The modeling method in teaching preschoolers." Modeling is one of the relatively "molazy" methods of mental training.

The relevance of using visual modeling in working with preschoolers is that:

A preschool child is very plastic and easy to learn, but most children are characterized by rapid fatigue and loss of interest in the lesson. The use of visual modeling is of interest and helps to solve this problem.

The use of symbolic analogy facilitates and speeds up the process of memorization and assimilation of material, forms methods of working with memory.

Using a graphical analogy, children learn to see the main thing, to systematize the knowledge gained.

The formation of visual modeling skills occurs in a certain sequence with an increase in the proportion of independent participation of preschoolers in this process. From here, one can distinguish the following stages of visual modeling:

Assimilation and analysis of sensory material;

Translating it into a sign-symbolic language.

Using visual modeling in my work, I teach children:

obtain information, conduct research, make comparisons, draw up a clear internal plan of mental actions, speech utterance;

formulate and express judgments, draw conclusions;

the use of visual modeling has a positive effect on the development of not only speech processes, but also non-speech ones: attention, memory, thinking.

The modeling method is effective because it allows the teacher to keep the cognitive interest of preschoolers throughout the lesson. It is the cognitive interest of children that contributes to active mental activity, long-term and stable concentration of attention. With the help of schemes and models, preschoolers learn to overcome various difficulties, while experiencing positive emotions - surprise, the joy of success - give them confidence in their abilities.

In the preparatory period, I use the following games: “What does it look like?”, “Who is hiding?”

At the initial stage of work, at a younger preschool age, models are used that are similar to real objects, characters, then you can use geometric shapes that resemble the object being replaced with their shape and color. Starting from the middle group, I use models with a minimum of details, as well as the use of mnemonics for compiling descriptive stories, retelling fairy tales, guessing riddles, and independently compiling fairy tales by children of older preschool age.

The versatility of the support circuits allows them to be used in various types of children's activities. Modeling is used in directly organized activities (in educational areas) and in independent activities of children to generalize their ideas about the environment.

To successfully achieve the goals in the activities of an educational institution, a variety of material resources and trained personnel are needed, as well as the desire of the teachers themselves to work efficiently and creatively. Per last years as a result of the introduction of the achievements of psychological and pedagogical science and advanced pedagogical experience into the work of educators, many new effective forms and methods of improving professional excellence teachers. The experience of our kindergarten shows that the most effective forms are master classes, workshops, open viewings of organized learning activities and integrated events.

At the present stage of the work of the preschool educational institution, the topic of interaction of all participants in the educational process is relevant. The most significant direction is cooperation with the families of pupils.

At present and in my future work, I will continue to apply the modeling method in the integration of the educational process.

Psychological and pedagogical coverage of the modeling method.

Many well-known teachers deal with the problem of modeling. In modern didactic literature, the idea of ​​modeling as one of the teaching methods is widespread, although, as scientific method modeling has been known for a very long time.

V. A. Shtoff defines a model as “a means of displaying, reproducing one or another part of reality with the aim of its deeper knowledge from observations and experiment to various forms of theoretical generalizations.”

V. V. Kraevsky defines a model as “a system of elements that reproduces certain aspects, connections, functions of the subject of study”. Friedman notes that “in science, models are used to study any objects (phenomena, processes), to solve a wide variety of scientific problems and thereby obtain some new information. Therefore, a model is usually defined as a certain object (system), the study of which serves as a means for obtaining knowledge about another object (original).

Modeling issues are considered in the works of a logical and philosophical plan from the standpoint of using models to study certain properties of the original, or its transformation, or the replacement of the original with models in the process of any activity (I.B. Novikov, V.A. Shtoff, etc. ).

Wide use among teachers of preschool education, such views in the 90s of the 20th century led to the fact that preschoolers often came to the 1st grade in these years, brought up in positions of rejection of systematic education and purposeful intellectual development in a preschool educational institution. And this discrepancy had a particularly painful effect on school education in the two leading subjects in elementary school: mathematics and the Russian language.

An analysis of the literature in which the term “model” is used shows that this term is used in two meanings: 1) in the meaning of a theory and 2) in the meaning of an object (or a process as a special case of an object) that is reflected by this theory. That is, on the one hand, the model has an abstracting character in relation to the object (abstract model), and on the other hand, it is concretizing (concrete model). Consistently considering the main meanings of the term "model", the author of the monograph "Modeling and Philosophy" V.A. Stoff offers the following definition: “A model is such a mentally represented or materially realized system that, displaying and reproducing an object, is able to replace it in such a way that its study gives us new information about this object.”

Modeling is one of the means of cognition of reality. The model is used to study any objects (phenomena, processes), to solve various problems and obtain new information. Therefore, a model is a certain object (system), the use of which serves to obtain knowledge about another object (original). For example, geographic map.

The visibility of models is based on the following important regularity: the creation of a model is based on the preliminary creation of a mental model - visual images of the objects being modeled, that is, the subject creates a mental image of this object, and then (together with the children) builds a material or figurative model (visual). Mental models are created by adults and can be transformed into visual models with the help of certain practical actions (in which children can also participate), children can also work with already created visual models.

To master modeling as a method of scientific knowledge, it is necessary to create models. Create with children and ensure that children take a direct and active part in the production of models. On the basis of such work, changes that are important for the full-fledged mental development of children occur - the mastery of a system of mental actions in the process of internalization.

Modeling is directly related to the model and is a system that provides knowledge about another similar one. Cognitive transformations are performed on the object - the model, but the results are related to the real object. An idealized object is also a kind of modeling, but an imaginary constructed object that has no analogue in reality. Modeling is a logical operation, with the help of which an examination of a given object and characteristics that are inaccessible to perception is made. Basically, models are: subject, subject-schematic and graphic.

The concept of "model" means different things: a certain construction, a reproduction of an object with a specific purpose, an ideal sample. In order to fulfill these properties, the modeling and modeling object must be dependent on similarity. The reproduction is not complete, but the object is presented in a form for analysis. It can be ideal or material in natural or artificial form.The content of the object is determined by what was obtained in the process of modeling.It can represent things, properties or relationships of a structural, functional or genetic type.Models have: visibility, abstractness and fantasy, hypotheticality and similarity "Meaning the properties of the object being reproduced, models can be: substrate, structural and functional. They are also: cognitive and non-cognitive (educational). They have a creative, representative and heuristic function. Providing penetration into the object and reproduction of its properties and relationships, the model embodies the goal and is a tool to achieve it. Modeling involves preliminary knowledge about the object, the transfer of knowledge from the model to the object, the practical verification of the acquired knowledge. Modeling always has a pre-fixed goal and is not just a form of materialization of a relationship previously discovered in the mind, but the act of constructing it, which gives it a heuristic character. Cognitive models provide the acquisition of new knowledge, and educational models - to master this knowledge.

Types of models

For preschoolers, different types of models are used:

1. First of all, subject, in which design features, proportions, the relationship of parts of any objects are reproduced. These can be technical toys that reflect the principle of the mechanism; building models. Subject model - a globe of the earth or an aquarium that models an ecosystem in miniature.

2. Object-schematic models. In them, essential features, connections and relationships are presented in the form of objects-models. Widespread object-schematic models are also calendars of nature.

3. Graphic models (graphs, diagrams, etc.) convey generalized (conditionally) signs, connections and relationships of phenomena. An example of such a model can be a weather calendar kept by children, using special symbolic icons to indicate phenomena in inanimate and animate nature. Or a plan of a room, a puppet corner, a route scheme (the way from home to kindergarten), labyrinths.

For the purpose of acquaintance, as well as fixing the images of models, didactic, plot-role-playing games are used, games that satisfy children's curiosity, help to involve the child in the active assimilation of the world around them, and help to master ways of knowing the connections between objects and phenomena. The model, exposing the connections and relationships necessary for cognition, simplifies the object, represents only it. individual parties, individual links. Consequently, the model cannot be the only method of cognition: it is used when it is necessary to reveal to children one or another essential content in the object. This means that the condition for the introduction of models into the process of cognition is the preliminary familiarization of children with real objects, phenomena, their external features, specifically represented by connections and mediations in the surrounding reality. The introduction of the model requires a certain level of formation of mental activity: the ability to analyze, abstract the features of objects, phenomena; figurative thinking that allows you to replace objects; the ability to make connections. And although all these skills are formed in children in the process of using models in cognitive activity, in order to introduce them, master the model itself and use it for the purpose of further cognition, a level of differentiated perception, figurative thinking, coherent speech and a rich vocabulary is already quite high for a preschooler. Thus, the very development of the model is presented in the form of participation of children in the creation of the model, participation in the process of replacing objects with schematic images. This preliminary assimilation of the model is a condition for its use to reveal the connection reflected in it. Visual modeling stimulates the development of children's research abilities, draws their attention to the features of the object, helps to determine the methods of sensory examination of the object and consolidate the results of the examination in a visual form.

The formation of independence, sociability, the ability to operate with language symbols will help the child in his studies at school. So, sign-symbolic activity is used at school all the time. Each subject has its own system of signs and symbols. With their help, the student encodes the studied information. Modeling occupies an important place in the educational activity of a younger student. This is a necessary component of the ability to learn, and correct speech is one of the indicators of a child's readiness for schooling, the key to successful literacy and reading. The introduction of visual models into the learning process makes it possible to more purposefully develop children's speech, enrich their active vocabulary, consolidate word-formation skills, form and improve the ability to use various sentence structures in speech, describe objects, and compose a story. In the course of using the visual modeling technique, children get acquainted with a graphical way of providing information - a model.

In the senior and preparatory group visual modeling methods include: designation of objects using a variety of substitutes; use and creation of different types of conditionally schematic representation of real objects and objects; the ability to read and create a graphic representation of the features of objects belonging to a particular class, species, genus (transport, plants, animals, etc.); the ability to navigate in space according to its schematic representation; the ability to create a plan of real space (plan of a room, a plot of a kindergarten, a street, etc.);

the ability to use the spatio-temporal model when retelling and compiling stories; self-creation of models according to their own design.

Schemes and models of various structures (syllables, words, sentences, texts) gradually teach children to observe the language. Schematization and modeling help the child to see how many and what sounds are in a word, the sequence of their arrangement, the connection of words in a sentence and text. This develops interest in words, speech sounds, communication, improves the child's speech and thinking activity. Organizing work to familiarize children with objects and natural phenomena, I pay attention to the fact that children can notice and highlight their main properties, as well as explain certain laws of nature. Diagrams, symbols, models help with this. Visual modeling in this case is the specific means that teaches to analyze, highlight the essential, teaches observation and curiosity.

It is better to start working with maps, diagrams and symbols by learning to compose descriptive stories about vegetables, fruits, clothes, dishes, seasons. At first, when compiling stories, it is proposed to move the card with the described object from point to point (windows with a schematic representation of the properties and features, distinctive features of the object). This is done to facilitate the completion of the task, since it is easier for children to describe an object when they directly see the desired point on the map next to the described object. Then you can separate them from each other: hold a card with the described object in your hand and tell in order in accordance with the points of the diagram map.

Organizing work with children on the development of imagination and the ability for visual modeling in visual activity, tasks were offered where children had to analyze appearance objects, highlight characteristic features, use the analysis of diagrams depicting a characteristic feature. And then it was proposed to create detailed, close to real images images

Modeling in a lesson on the development of speech

S.L. Rubinstein says that speech is the activity of communication - expression, influence, message - through language, speech is language in action. Speech, both one with language and different from it, is the unity of a certain activity - communication - and a certain content, which designates and, designating, reflects being. More precisely, speech is a form of existence of consciousness (thoughts, feelings, experiences) for another, serving as a means of communication with him, and a form of a generalized reflection of reality, or a form of existence of thinking. The development of human thinking is essentially connected with the development of articulate sound speech. Since the relation of the word and the signified in sound speech is more abstract than the relation of the gesture to what it represents or points to, sound speech presupposes more high development thinking; on the other hand, more generalized and abstract thinking, in turn, needs sound speech for its expression. They are thus interrelated and historical development were interdependent.

Among the problems of children's speech development, two main ones are singled out: speech creation and dialogue as the most important components of communicative amateur activity, the most important areas of personal self-development. Creativity in speech activity manifests itself at different levels to varying degrees. A person does not invent his own sound system and, as a rule, does not invent morphemes (roots, prefixes, suffixes, endings). He learns to correctly pronounce sounds and words in accordance with the norms of his native language, build sentences in accordance with the rules of grammar, formulate statements in the form of texts of a certain structure (with a beginning, middle, ending) and a certain type (description, narration, reasoning). But by learning these language tools and forms of speech that exist in culture, the child is creative, plays with sounds, rhymes, meanings, experiments and constructs, creates his own original words, phrases, grammatical constructions, texts that he has never heard from anyone. In this form, the child learns language patterns. He comes to fluency in the language, linguistic instinct through an elementary awareness of linguistic reality. He comes to normal through the experiment (through its violation).

Of particular importance in the speech development of preschoolers is the dialogue of peers. It is here that children truly feel equal, free, relaxed. Here they learn self-organization, self-activity, self-control. In dialogue, content is born that none of the partners possesses separately, it is born only in interaction. In a dialogue with a peer, to the greatest extent, one has to focus on the characteristics of a partner, take into account his capabilities (often limited) and therefore arbitrarily build his statement using contextual speech. Dialogue with a peer is a new fascinating area of ​​pedagogy of cooperation, pedagogy of self-development. Here, direct instructions, educational motivation, and strict regulation are inappropriate. And yet, dialogue with a peer, as studies show, needs to be taught. Teach dialogue, teach language games, teach verbal creativity.

An effective way to solve the problem of the development of the child's intellect and speech is modeling, thanks to which children learn to generalize the essential features of objects, connections and relationships in reality. It is advisable to start teaching modeling at preschool age, since, according to L.S. Vygotsky, F. A. Sokhin, O. S. Ushakova, preschool age is the period of the most intensive formation and development of the personality. Developing, the child actively learns the basics of his native language and speech, his speech activity increases.

An important role in the development of coherent speech of children is played by didactic games on the description of objects: “Tell me which one”, “Who will know and name more”, “Guess from the description”, “Wonderful bag”, “Toy store”. These games help teach children to name characteristic features, qualities, actions; encourage children to actively participate in expressing their opinions; form the ability to coherently and consistently describe the subject. Didactic games for the formation of ideas about the sequence of actions of the characters by solving the corresponding pictures-diagrams: “Tell a fairy tale from the pictures”, “Tell me what first, what then”, “I will start, and you will finish”, “Who knows, he continues further” . Such games contribute to a coherent storytelling, a consistent description of the plot of the work.

The modeling method is based on the principle of substitution: the child replaces a real object with another object, its image, some symbol. Initially, the ability to replace is formed in children in the game (a pebble becomes a candy, sand becomes a porridge for a doll, and he himself becomes a dad, a driver, an astronaut). The experience of substitution is also accumulated during the development of speech, in visual activity.

In the course of using the visual modeling technique, children get acquainted with a graphical way of providing information - a model. The use of modeling in the development of speech has two aspects:

) serves as a certain method of cognition;

) is a program for analyzing new phenomena.

It is advisable to conduct classes on the development of coherent speech of children on tasks aimed at identifying the ability to answer questions with a full sentence, compose story- description model, to conduct a dialogue.

The use of visual modeling in working with preschoolers is that: a preschooler is very plastic and easy to learn, but our children are characterized by rapid fatigue and loss of interest in the lesson. The use of visual modeling is of interest and helps to solve this problem. The use of symbolic analogy facilitates and speeds up the process of memorization and assimilation of material, forms methods of working with memory. Using a graphical analogy, we teach children to see the main thing, to systematize the knowledge gained. Visual modeling technology requires compliance with the following learning principles:

) developing and educating nature of education;

) scientific nature of the content and methods of the educational process;

) systematic and consistent;

)consciousness, creative activity and independence;

) visibility;

) availability;

) a rational combination of collective and individual forms work.

The development of coherent speech is an important task of the speech education of children. This is due to its social significance and role in the formation of personality. In connected speech, the main communicative function language and speech. Coherent speech is the highest form of speech of mental activity, which determines the level of speech and mental development of the child.

At present, there is no need to prove that the development of speech is most closely connected with the development of consciousness, knowledge of the world around us, and the development of the personality as a whole. The central link, with the help of which the teacher can solve a variety of cognitive and creative tasks, are figurative means, more precisely, model representations.

Forms of work with the model

1. An object model in the form of a physical structure of an object or objects that are naturally connected (a planar model of a figure that reproduces its main parts, design features, proportions, ratios of parts in space).

2. Object-schematic model (sign). Here, the essential components identified in the object of cognition and the connections between them are indicated with the help of objects - substitutes and graphic signs. (for senior dosh.age - calendars)

3. Graphic models (graphs, formulas, diagrams)

4. Analog model. The model and the original are described by a single mathematical relation (electrical models for studying mechanical, acoustic, hydrodynamic phenomena)

Based on the models, you can create a variety of didactic games.

Using picture models to organize different kinds oriented activity of children.

Models can be used in the classroom, in collaboration with the teacher and independent children's activities.

Parents and children can be involved in the creation of models: the relationship is educator + parent + child

Orientation in time

For a child, the reflection of time is a more difficult task than the perception of space.

T.D. Richterman distinguishes at least three different aspects of temporal representations:

the adequacy of the reflection of time intervals and their correlation with activities (the ability to organize one's activities in time);

understanding of words denoting time (from simpler “yesterday-today-tomorrow” to more complex “past-present-future”, etc.);

understanding the sequence of events, actions, phenomena

System of work according to T.D. Richterman

Familiarization with the parts of the day on a visual basis using pictures, reflecting the activities of children in different parts of the day

Orientation in landscape pictures according to the main natural indicators: the color of the sky, the position of the Sun in the sky, the degree of illumination of the day

The transition to the conventions of landscape pictures using a color model, where each time of day is indicated by a certain color

As a generalization of knowledge about time - acquaintance with the calendar as a system of measures of time

The system of work according to E.I. Shcherbakova

She developed a three-dimensional model of time in the form of a spiral, each turn of which, depending on the solution of a specific didactic task, clearly showed the movement of changing processes, time phenomena, properties of time (one-dimensionality, fluidity, irreversibility, periodicity)

The “days of the week” model, similar to the first, but differed in that its dimensions are larger and one turn of the spiral includes seven segments sequentially colored in different colors, correlated with certain days of the week.

The “season of the year” model differs from the previous one in a significantly larger size and four-color solution.

The sequence of teaching temporary concepts

Methods of familiarization with temporary concepts

Development of a sense of time in children of senior preschool age

Day models for different age groups

Model of the day (according to A.Davidchuk)

A circle with an arrow, divided into 4 colored segments: morning - pink (the sun is rising); day - yellow (light and the sun warms brightly); evening - blue (darkens0; night - black (dark). Day and night occupy most of the sectors, because they last longer in time.

Working with the model:

Find the corresponding sector for the named part of the day

Reproduce the sequence of parts of the day, starting with any of them

Set the number of parts per day

Determine the "neighbors" of each part of the day

Select the appropriate picture for the sector (landscape or activity)

Indicate the lived part of the day on the model.

Model "yesterday-today-tomorrow"

3 identical circles (based on the model of the day, arranged one after the other horizontally)

Working with the model:

Show time segments "yesterday morning", "this afternoon", "tomorrow evening", etc.

Show the time when an event happened

Write a sequential story about the event

Show “was”, “will be”, “is happening now”, etc.

Model "parts of the day"

Consists of plot pictures showing human activity in different segments of the day

Purpose: Acquaintance of children with units of time, teaching orientation in parts of the day

D / game "When does this happen?" (parts of the day)

Purpose: To fix the parts of the day and their sequence.

Material: pictures: toothbrush, pillow, plate, toy, etc.; pictures with actions: morning exercises, lesson, watching an evening fairy tale, a sleeping child.

In front of the children are pictures that depict the activities of people or objects corresponding to one or another part of the day. The guys are invited to consider them and correlate them with the corresponding sectors on the model.

Model of the week (according to R. Chudnova)

A circle with an arrow, on which are placed small circles (stripes) with dots, numbers from 1 to 7, or with color substitutes (according to the spectrum of the rainbow) indicating the days of the week. An extended model is possible, which also includes seasons, days, etc.

Working with the model:

Determine what each character means

Name the days of the week, etc. in order, in reverse order, starting with any

Name the symbols that the arrow shows

Determine the order of characters by account (what day of the week, etc.)

Name the missing character among the named

Determine the total number of characters (7 days of the week, 4 parts of the day, 3 months - season, 12 months - year)

watch model, the inner circle of which reflects the model of the day - is divided into four sectors, the middle circle is the days of the week (seven sectors with the colors of the rainbow), the outer circle is the model of the year (twelve sectors painted in shades of colors characteristic of the seasons)

Game manual "Circle of time"

Formation of ideas about time in children of senior preschool age.

1. Introduce children to units of time.

2. Learn to navigate in parts of the day, days of the week, seasons, highlight their sequence and use the words: yesterday, today, tomorrow, earlier, soon.

3. Fix the names of the days of the week, months.

4. Develop speech activity in children.

5. Develop children's cognitive needs.

Game: When does it happen? (seasons)

Purpose: To consolidate the features of the seasons and their sequence.

Material: pictures with seasonal features and activities.

Stroke: In front of the children are pictures that depict the activities of people or objects corresponding to a particular season. The guys are invited to consider them and correlate them with the corresponding sectors on the model.

(second option)

Children are invited to guess the riddle and place the chip in the corresponding sector on the model:

The snow is melting, the meadow has come to life.

The day is coming - when does it happen? I.t.

Game: "Determine the day of the week"

Purpose: To consolidate the names and sequence of the days of the week.

Children are invited to answer cognitive questions, for example: "Determine what color is Thursday, if Monday is marked in red?"; “Show the weekend on the model”; "What is the color of the environment?"; "Determine what day of the week it is and put the chip in the appropriate pocket."

Complication: the guys are offered cards with the names of the days of the week, they need to read and arrange the cards in pockets according to the day of the week.

“Design the sequence of days of the week with numbers”, “What will be Friday”, “Russell Smeshariki by day of the week”, “Which of Smeshariki will come to visit us on Friday?”, “What day of the week will Nyusha come to visit us? » i.d.

For the game with Smeshariki, preliminary work must first be carried out. The guys determine that on Monday Nyusha comes to visit us, because. it is pink, which corresponds to the red color of Monday, on Tuesday - Kopatych, he looks like Orange color Tuesday, etc., thus distributed all the days of the week, but since there is no green Smeshariki, they decided that Thursday would be the day of the Hedgehog, he lives under the Christmas tree. Thus, Smeshariki help memorize the sequence and names of the days of the week.

The game: " All year round»

Purpose: To consolidate the names and sequence of the seasons and months.

Children are offered tasks such as “Find November on the model”, “Name the month indicated in blue”, “Show the winter and spring months on the model”, “Show the month that begins winter and ends the year”, “Distribute the names of the months in order” , “Design the autumn months”, etc.

Game: "Count"

Purpose: To consolidate the ability to perform arithmetic operations.

On the model in a small and medium circle there are numbers, in a large outer circle an arithmetic sign, for example +, the teacher, shows with arrows which numbers need to be added, and the child performs an action with sets the corresponding number in a large circle.

Model "room" for orientation in space

Features of the perception of space by preschoolers

Spatial perception in preschool age is marked by a number of features:

- a concrete-sensual character: the child is guided by his body and determines everything relative to his own body;

- the most difficult thing for a child is to distinguish between the right and left hands, because the distinction is built on the basis of the functional advantage of the right hand over the left, which is developed in the work of functional activity;

- the relative nature of spatial relations: in order for a child to determine how an object relates to another person, he needs to take the place of the object in his mind;

- children orient themselves more easily in static than in motion;

- it is easier to determine spatial relationships to objects that are at a close distance from the child.

The system of work on the development of spatial representations among preschoolers (T.A. Museybova)

1) orientation "on oneself"; mastering the "scheme of one's own body";

2) orientation "on external objects"; selection of various sides of objects: front, back, top, bottom, side;

3) development and application of the verbal reference system in the main spatial directions: forward - backward, up - down, right - left;

4) determination of the location of objects in space “from oneself”, when the starting point of reference is fixed on the subject himself;

5) determination of one’s own position in space (“standing points”) relative to various objects, while the reference point is localized on another person or on some object;

6) determination of the spatial placement of objects relative to each other;

7) determination of the spatial arrangement of objects when oriented on a plane, i.e. in two-dimensional space;

determination of their placement relative to each other and in relation to the plane on which they are placed

Model "room"

Consists of a room layout and pieces of doll furniture

First, the child examines and examines the layout of the doll's room, remembers the location of the rooms and furniture in it. Further, with the help of a doll, he plays, moving around the rooms of the doll’s apartment, accompanying his actions with descriptions (the doll went into the room on the left, stopped at the closet to the right of the window, etc.) The teacher himself can ask questions and give instructions, directing visual perception child (come to the puppet table, etc.) and activating various spatial concepts in speech (left, right, further, near, above, below, etc.)

Model "number houses"

"A house where signs and numbers live"
(number houses)

Purpose of application:

To consolidate the ability of children to make numbers from two smaller ones; add and subtract numbers;

To give children ideas about the composition and invariance of a number, magnitude, subject to differences in summation;

Learn or consolidate the ability to compare numbers (greater than, less than, equal to).

Model structure:

the model is a floor house, on each floor there is a different number of windows where signs and numbers will live, but since the house is magical, signs and numbers can only settle in the house with the help of children.

Model "numerical ladder"

Numeric ladder

Goal: the formation of computational skills within 10; development of ideas about the number series, about the composition of the number

Staircase consisting of steps of different colors in each row. 10 rows in total: bottom row - 10 segments, top row - 1 segment. Each row corresponds to a certain number from 1 to 10, and reflects their composition.

Working with the model:

Acquaintance with the composition of the number by the number of segments in each rung of the ladder

Counting up and down stairs

Determining the place of a number in a number row (ladder) - 3 is before 4, but after 2, etc.

Definition of "neighbors" of a number

Counting in direct and reverse order

Number Comparison

Hourglass Model

Visual three-dimensional model "hourglass" (from plastic bottles)

Purpose of application:

teach children to measure time using a model hourglass; actively participate in the experimentation process.

Model structure: three-dimensional model.

In order to be able to measure time, it is necessary to open the cap of the bottom of one of the bottles and pour sand into it exactly as much as it is necessary so that in 1 minute the sand from one compartment of the clock passes into another. This must be done through experimentation.

Description of working with the model:

using the hourglass model, you can first conduct an educational introductory session. Show the children pictures of different hourglasses, then demonstrate the model, talk about the origin of the hourglass, why they are needed, how to use them, how they work. Then, together with the children, be sure to conduct experiments: for example, an experiment proving the accuracy of the clock.

Visual planar model "Counting cake"

Purpose of application:

Teach children to solve arithmetic problems and develop the cognitive abilities of the child;

Learn to identify mathematical relationships between quantities, navigate them.

Model structure, the model includes:

1. Five sets of "sweet counting parts", each of which is divided into parts (both equal and different parts). Each countable cake in the form of a circle has its own color.

2. Ovals cut out of white cardboard, which represent "whole" and "part". In a game situation, they will be called plates, where children will lay out pieces of the counting.

Description of working with the model:

in an arithmetic problem, mathematical relations can be viewed as a "whole" and a "part".

First, you need to give children ideas about the concept of "whole" and "part".

Put a counting cake in front of the children on a plate that means "whole", a counting cake (all its parts, say that mom baked the whole cake and that we put it strictly on a plate that means "whole". Now we will cut the cake into two parts, each of them Let's call it "part". Explain that now that the whole (the whole cake) has been divided into parts (into 2 pieces), then the whole is now gone, but there are only 2 parts. Which cannot remain on someone else's plate and must be put in their places - plates indicating "part". One piece on one plate, another piece on another plate. Then put the 2 pieces back together and show that the whole is again. In this way, we have demonstrated that the connection of the parts gives the whole, and the subtraction of the part from the whole gives part.

Preschool education- this is the first step in the education system, therefore the main task of teachers working with preschoolers is to form an interest in the learning process and its motivation, development and correction of speech. Today, it is quite definitely possible to identify the urgent contradictions between the normative content of education common to all pupils and the individual capabilities of children.

The main goal of speech development is to bring it to the norm determined for each age stage, although individual differences in the speech level of children can be extremely large. Every child should learn in kindergarten to express his thoughts in a meaningful, grammatically correct, coherent and consistent way.

The problem of speech insufficiency of preschoolers is that at present the child spends little time in the company of adults (more and more at the computer, at the TV or with his toys), rarely listens to stories and fairy tales from the lips of mom and dad.

The relevance of this topic can be seen in the fact that visual modeling makes it easier for middle-aged children to master coherent speech, thus, the use of symbols, pictograms, substitutes, schemes facilitates memorization and increases memory capacity and, in general, develops children's speech activity.

In middle-aged preschoolers, the development of imagination and figurative thinking are the main directions of mental development, and it was advisable to dwell on the development of imagination and the formation of the ability for visual modeling in different types activities: when getting acquainted with fiction; when introducing children to nature. These activities attract children and are age appropriate.

It is important to choose the optimal form of classes that can ensure the effectiveness of work, the main goal of which is the development of the intellectual abilities of children, their mental development. And the main thing at the same time will be the mastery of various means of solving cognitive problems. Development will occur only in those cases when the child finds himself in a situation where there is a cognitive task for him and solves it. It is very important that the emotional attitude be connected with the cognitive task through an imaginary situation that arises as a result of a game or symbolic designation. To do this, it is advisable to conduct cognitive games-classes with the inclusion of problematic situations, riddle tasks, any fabulous or educational material related to one plot, where tasks for the development of imagination, memory, and thinking are intertwined.

Schemes and models serve didactic material in the work of a teacher in the development of coherent speech of children. They should be used to: enrich vocabulary; in teaching storytelling; when retelling artwork; when guessing and compiling riddles; when learning poetry.

Based on the experience of leading teachers, when organizing visual modeling classes, diagrams and tables are used to compose descriptive stories about toys, dishes, clothes, vegetables and fruits, birds, animals, and insects. These schemes help children to independently determine the main properties and features of the subject under consideration, to establish the sequence of presentation of the identified features; enrich vocabulary children.

As a result of work on the development of coherent speech, it can be concluded that the use of visual modeling in speech development classes is an important link in the development of coherent speech of children. At each age stage, children develop:

the ability to grammatically correctly, coherently and consistently express their thoughts;

the ability to retell short works;

improvement of dialogical speech;

the ability to actively participate in the conversation, it is understandable for listeners to answer questions and ask them;

the ability to describe an object, a picture;

the ability to dramatize small tales;

nurture the desire to speak like an adult.

In the course of using the visual modeling method, children get acquainted with a graphical way of providing information - a model. Symbols of various nature can act as conditional substitutes (elements of the model): geometric figures; symbolic images of objects (symbols, silhouettes, contours, pictograms); plans and symbols used in them; contrasting frame - the method of fragmentary storytelling and many others.

A story based on a plot picture requires the child to be able to identify the main characters or objects of the picture, trace their relationship and interaction, note the features of the compositional background of the picture, as well as the ability to think out the reasons for the occurrence of this situation, that is, to compose the beginning of the story, and its consequences - that is, the end story.

In practice, self-composed stories by children are mostly simple enumerations. actors or objects in the picture.

The work to overcome these shortcomings and develop the skill of storytelling in a picture consists of 3 stages: the selection of fragments of the picture that are significant for the development of the plot; determining the relationship between them; combining fragments into a single plot.

The elements of the model are, respectively, pictures - fragments, silhouette images of significant objects of the picture and schematic images of fragments of the picture. Schematic images are also elements of visual models, which are the plan of stories for a series of paintings. When children have mastered the skill of building a coherent statement, creative elements are included in the models of retellings and stories - the child is invited to come up with the beginning or end of the story, unusual characters are included in the fairy tale or plot of the picture, unusual qualities are assigned to the characters, etc., and then compose a story with taking these changes into account.

Thus, the use of substitutes, symbols, models in various activities is a source of development of mental abilities and creativity in preschool childhood. Since at this age the development of imagination and figurative thinking are the main directions of mental development, it was advisable to dwell on the development of imagination and the formation of the ability for visual modeling in various types of activities: when getting acquainted with fiction; when introducing children to nature, in drawing classes. These activities attract children and are age appropriate. Also, in these conditions, it was important to choose the optimal form of classes that could ensure the effectiveness of work, the main goal of which is the development of the intellectual abilities of children, their mental development. And the main thing at the same time will be the mastery of various means of solving cognitive problems.

CONCLUSION

In children of senior preschool age, the development of speech reaches a high level. Most children correctly pronounce all the sounds of their native language, can regulate the strength of the voice, the pace of speech, the intonation of the question, joy, surprise. By the senior preschool age, the child accumulates a significant vocabulary. The enrichment of vocabulary (the vocabulary of the language, the totality of words used by the child) continues, the stock of words similar (synonyms) or opposite (antonyms) in meaning, polysemantic words is increasing.

The development of the dictionary is characterized not only by an increase in the number of words used, but also by the child's understanding of the different meanings of the same word (multi-valued). Movement in this regard is extremely important, since it is associated with an increasingly complete awareness of the semantics of the words that they already use. At the senior preschool age, the most important stage of the speech development of children is basically completed - the assimilation of the grammatical system of the language. Increasing specific gravity simple common sentences, compound and complex sentences. Children develop a critical attitude to grammatical errors, the ability to control their speech.

LIST OF SOURCES USED

1. Alekseeva, M.M. Methodology for the development of speech and teaching the native language of preschoolers. - M.: Academy, 1997. - 219p.

Arushanova, A. G. Speech and verbal communication children: A book for kindergarten teachers - M .: Mosaic-Synthesis, 1999.- 37-45s.

Bogoslavets, L. G. Modern pedagogical technologies in preschool education: study method allowance / L. G. Bogoslavets. - St. Petersburg. Detstvo-press, 2011. - 111 p.

Borodich, A.M. Methods of development of speech of children of preschool age / A.M. Borodich. 2nd ed. - M.: 1984.- 252p.

Wenger, L.A., Mukhina, V.S. Psychology. textbook for university students. - M.: Enlightenment, 1988.- 328s

Galperin, PL. Teaching methods and mental development of the child. - M.: Enlightenment, 1985. - 123-125s.

Zhuikova, T.P. Characteristics of the modeling method in the formation of spatial representations in children of senior preschool age. -M.: Young scientist publishing house, 2012. -41-44s

Matyukhina, M.V., Mikhalchik T.S., Prokina N.F. Age and pedagogical psychology. - M .: Education, 1984. - 12-18s.

Leontiev, A. A. Language, speech, speech activity. - M., 1969.- 135s.

Leontiev, A.A. Pedagogical communication / A.A. Leontiev - M., 1979 - 370 p.

Sapogova, E.E. The operation of modeling as a condition for the development of imagination in preschoolers.- M .: Pedagogy, 1978.- 233s

Tiheeva, E.I. The development of children's speech. manual for kindergarten teachers / E.I. Tikheev. - M.: 1981.- 345s.

Tkachenko, T.A., Tkachenko D.D., Entertaining symbols. -M.: Moscow, Prometheus, 2002.- 89-100s.

2. SYSTEMIC APPROACHES TO THE MANAGEMENT OF INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES OF COMPANIES

2.2. The use of modeling in innovation and its methodological limitations

At present, among a fairly wide range of specialists, there is an opinion about the universality and omnipotence of modeling. Therefore, very often, when managing companies and economic production systems (EPS), they resort to modeling, using it as a tool in planning. However, as indicated by numerous sources, , , , , , , in the practical management of companies, modeling as an optimization method of management should be approached more carefully.

According to a number of researchers, economic and mathematical modeling, as a discipline that studies the processes of constructing, interpreting and applying mathematical models of economic objects to solve problems of analysis, synthesis and forecasting of their activities, cannot currently be considered as an independent one. According to this opinion, the meaningful part of the modeling process (selection of indicators, factors, dependencies) is included in economic theory, and the technical one (which in 9 cases out of 10 means the construction of certain statistical models) - into econometrics. Thus, economic and mathematical modeling turns out to be, on the one hand, broken, on the other, truncated, and the issues of the relationship of all stages of modeling, the correctness of the interpretation of modeling results and, consequently, the value of recommendations based on models, seem to be hanging in the air. As a result, results based on the interpretation of insufficiently adequate models (for example, regression dependencies, in which the coefficient of multiple determination R 2 is equal to 0.03) are taken seriously. Sometimes an excessively broad interpretation of certain components of the model is allowed.

The reason for the cautious approach in the practice of modeling is the well-known discrepancy between the object and its model: the model is just a simplified representation of reality. Model - there is a theoretical construction that has some relation to reality, which can be independently discussed and analyzed.

When constructing a mathematical model, one inevitably has to introduce various assumptions and restrictions, and from the total number of object parameters, only a few, according to the developers, are selected, the most important ones, because: firstly, it is impossible to fully identify all the parameters of the object, and secondly, if the model takes into account all If there are a large number of them, then it will become very cumbersome and technically difficult to implement, and the content of the simulation will be lost behind a large amount of data. When comparing an object and a model, the question arises of how accurately it describes the object. Obviously, for the same object, depending on the tasks set and the number of parameters taken into account, many models can be proposed, each of which describes the object with a certain accuracy (more or less adequacy) and uses one or another mathematical apparatus. It is obvious that the models used or developed are not identical to real objects and ongoing processes, the study of models and its properties is not the study of a real object. Since it is impossible to build an absolutely adequate model (to implement it), the question arises of its optimally admissible adequacy, which will allow, under given conditions, to neglect changes in the object .

Current level of development mathematical modeling practically does not allow any adequate modeling of real objects. Any such object is infinitely complex, and even for its verbal description, which is necessary at the pre-model stage, generally speaking, a text of a gigantic volume, practically excluding the possibility of use, would be required. Moreover, it makes no sense to rely on object modeling in the form of certain mathematical constructions, i.e. elements of some fundamentally different (mathematical) world.

The problem of model suitability, according to G. Ya. Goldshtein, which boils down to establishing a quantitative assessment of the measure of the adequacy of the accepted mathematical model to real objects under study, in general, is very complex: its solution is associated with mathematical, economic, expert, technical and even philosophical issues. Indeed, how can one solve the question of the quantitative measure of the difference between the mathematical model of an object and the real object itself, if the true (complete) description of such an object is never known to the researcher?

Given that the model is a simplified representation of reality, a very important problem is to determine the purpose of the simulation. Goal setting, in turn, determines the quantitative indicator of the adequacy of the developed model. In the general case, the purpose of modeling is to obtain information about an object in time, starting from cognitive goals and up to obtaining specific data for making managerial decisions.

Indeed, if a quantitative measure of the adequacy of the model is not established, then the whole idea of ​​conducting simulation machine experiments does not stand up to elementary criticism. Until this issue is resolved, the value of the model remains negligible, and the simulation machine experiment turns into a simple exercise in deductive logic. Moreover, according to V. V. Olshevsky and other experts in the field of simulation modeling complex systems that experimenting on a computer with an inadequate model will be of little use, since we will simply imitate our own ignorance.

Important in practical terms is the cost of obtaining simulation results. This cost includes both the price of developing the model and the price of its implementation and obtaining the required information. The high cost of obtaining simulation results already raises the question of whether it is worth using simulation at all.

If we take into account numerous examples of successful modeling of a wide variety of physical, biological and economic objects and processes, and at the same time look at them more closely, it turns out that not specific fragments of the real world, but their systemic representations, served as direct prototypes for these models. those. the results of their description in the form of systems with the help of certain system-forming features. These descriptions are incomparably simpler than objects, and therefore they are located between the object and its model.

As can be seen in Figure 10, the relationship between an object and its model is indirect, since a system description of the object is located between the object and its model. In this case, the gap between the object and its systemic description can be quite significant. For example, in the system description of an enterprise, only the production process can actually be reflected, while the processes of resource reproduction are not reflected, since they are outside the interests of the researcher. It is logical to assume that if the system description of the object S allows you to uniquely restore the object Q, then the model M built on the basis of such a system description can be called the system model of the object Q.

Figure 10 - The relationship between the object, its system description and model

Modeling the activities of companies (individual areas of activity) has a certain specificity. These features reflect:

Instability statistical characteristics dependencies, variability of the composition and non-stationarity of the action of factors affecting the nature and course of processes modeled at the microeconomic level;

instability external environment enterprises;

The presence of a significant subjective component (the influence of decisions made at a given enterprise) as part of the factors of microeconomic processes;

Problematic application statistical methods and approaches in modeling micro-objects, in particular, the difficulty of forming a homogeneous population from similar objects;

Possibility to supplement "external" quantitative statistical information about the values ​​of the simulated indicators with "internal" qualitative information about the nature of the dependence obtained directly from insiders;

Lack of continuity in modeling, which is typical for the modeling of macro-objects, the extremely limited number (as a rule, absence) of publications on the progress and results of modeling this process on a given micro-object.

In order to take into account these features when building a model, ensuring its adequacy as the ability to reflect the most significant in this aspect of the relationship between the components of the system description of the object and the elements of its model, it is necessary to ensure maximum transparency and comparability of information on the progress and results of modeling as many microeconomic objects as possible. .

The complexity of modeling the activities of a real company, in addition, is determined by a number of factors: heterogeneity of products; irregular production; internal factors destabilizing production; violations of the regularity of supply; delays and irregularities in financial flows; change market conditions; marketing features of products; external threats and opportunities; general economic, technological and social environment and so on.

Most of these system parameters are probabilistic in nature and, most importantly, are non-stationary. Planning and management according to average characteristics does not give the desired effect, since while it is being carried out, both the system itself and its environment. All this is exacerbated by the non-stationary nature of probabilistic processes. As a result, the use of formal mathematical models is difficult due to the large dimension of the EPS, insufficient a priori information, the presence of poorly formalized factors, fuzzy criteria for evaluating decisions made, and so on.

The economic system, as an object of research and application of economic and mathematical methods, is continuously developing in non-stationary conditions. Mathematical programming models, according to V. A. Zabrodsky, do not adequately reflect the conditions for the implementation of plans, do not fully take into account the predicted losses caused by the need to localize interference in time and across the ensemble of subsystems. Econometric models for such conditions are practically not developed.

The real approach to solving the problem of managing the company's activities, according to I. B. Mockus, may be to abandon the search and implementation of the ultimate optimal management model and switch to the use of approximate solutions. In this case, control options are sought that are close to the absolute optimum, and not the optimum itself. We can assume that in any problem there is a certain threshold of complexity, which can be crossed only at the cost of abandoning the requirements for the accuracy of solutions. If we take into account the cost of computer implementation of the solution, for example, of multi-extremal problems, then their exact methods for solving them may turn out to be unprofitable compared to simpler approximate methods. The effect obtained from refining the solution will not pay off the additional costs of finding it. It should be noted that the very multi-parameter nature of the problem “smoothes out” the optimal solution and facilitates the task of getting the control system into a region close to the optimum. Moreover, this becomes more and more obvious with an increase in the number of system parameters and their probabilistic nature.

Back in the 60s of the XX century, scientists drew attention to the fact that the distribution law of the objective function when designing a system with a large number arguments tends to converge to normal if the objective function (or its monotonic transformation) is expressed as a sum of terms, each of which depends on a limited number of variables. This condition is met in most real cases of EPS control. This opens the way to the use of such optimization methods in the management of companies' activities that minimize the sum of the expected risk associated with a deviation in management from reaching the optimum, and the average losses for finding this solution (the cost of designing a control system).

The presence of many factors that determine control in a real EPS and their probabilistic nature, non-stationarity, conditionality in the economic and mathematical models used make real control only approximately optimal, which leads to the need for approximate optimization based on the use of the “horizontal uncertainty” principle.

Thus, the management of the activities of a real company in the general case, due to the above reasons, can in principle only be adaptive. This is explained, firstly, by the fundamental impossibility of a mathematically accurate determination of the initial conditions of the control object, and secondly, by the fundamental impossibility of a mathematically accurate description of all environmental influences perturbing the control object, thirdly, by the fundamental impossibility of describing all the mutual relations between the elements of the object, fourthly, the non-stationarity of the characteristics of the external environment and the characteristics of the system , , .

It turns out that the company's activity management system itself is based for the most part on subjective assessments of the parameters of the system, the environment and the relationships of the real EPS. At present, according to V. S. Pugachev and other authors in , methods for studying control processes simultaneously with a large number of objects that have a certain independence of action and freedom of behavior have not yet been developed (and are unlikely to be developed).

In the practice of innovation management, which is one of the company's activities, there is often a temptation to use traditional economic and mathematical methods of optimization management. However, due to the specifics of innovation activity, characterized by a high degree of uncertainty and unpredictability, the management of innovation activity can fundamentally only be adaptive , , , . These conclusions are confirmed by the works and .

Therefore, the author considers it important in the proposed study to reveal the mechanism of adaptive management, as well as the reasons that give rise to the need for its application in innovation management and innovation activity.

In Russia, the development of innovations is one of the national priorities. However, activities aimed at the development of innovative activity are not systematic. Is it possible to propose a new model of the innovation process, designed to provide a systematic approach to the problem of innovation development, both at the federal and regional levels?

Innovative activity is associated with the transformation of ideas (usually the results scientific research, developments, etc.) into technologically new or improved products or services introduced on the market, into new or improved technological processes or methods of production (transfer) of services used in practical activities. Innovative activity involves a whole range of scientific, technological, organizational, financial and commercial activities that lead to innovation in their entirety.

The innovation process, in turn, is a complex of successive stages or events associated with the initiation, development and manufacture of new products, technologies, etc. With the development of the theory of innovation, models of the innovation process have also evolved: from simple linear to more complex nonlinear models.

There are various models of the innovation process, including linear (combined and chain) and non-linear (integrated). Linear models involve successive stages in the creation of innovative products. Nonlinear models allow the parallel implementation of some (or all) groups of actions aimed at creating innovative products, and focus on the nature of the interaction between the subjects of the innovation process.

AT modern science preference is given to non-linear models of the innovation process. An example of an integrated model of the innovation process is shown in Figure 1.

Fig.1. The fourth generation innovation process model is an “integrated” model.

This model does not allow identifying critical areas in the course of the innovation process - such areas, on the successful completion of which the further course of the process depends.

The presentation of the integrated model of the innovation process in the form of a flowchart allows you to track its dynamics and identify critical areas. This provides for the parallelism of some sections of the processes. The block diagram shown in fig. 2 was developed from the definition of .

Fig.2. Dynamic model of the innovation process developed by the author.

The developed model contains two blocks of initial factors (scientific-technical and economic), which are key to initiating the innovation process.

The scientific and technical block includes the following factors:

• number of organizations conducting research and development,
• the number of people employed in research and development,
• amount of funding for research and development.

The economic block contains the following factors:

• the emergence of new businesses,
• competitive fight,
• decrease in demand for traditional products,
• availability of venture capital.

Provided that the initial factors ensured the start of the innovation process, there are areas where the innovation process can be interrupted without providing an innovative product. This can happen in the following cases:

• As a result of the R&D carried out, a protectable RIA was not obtained;
• In the absence of production capabilities, when the RIA right holder does not have the opportunity to open an enterprise for the production of innovative products, and also does not have the ability to transfer the right to use RIA to another person with such capabilities.

Another unfavorable condition for the course of the innovation process is the unprofitability of the production of innovative products (for example, due to insufficient demand). This obstacle is surmountable: a specific type of innovative product can be adapted to market requirements identified as a result of market research before launching into production.

Thus, the developed model of the innovation process, which includes the initial factors for initiating the innovation process, as well as the identified critical areas of the innovation process, makes it possible to analyze the progress of innovation activity and ensures the adoption of managerial decisions to optimize the innovation process and develop innovation activity at the regional level. * * *

The study was carried out with the financial support of the Russian Humanitarian Foundation (Project No. 11-02-00647a).

Literature

1. Russian statistical yearbook. stat. Sat. 2011. M.: Rosstat, 2011. P.76.
2. Garmashova E.P. Development of the theory of innovative processes / E.P. Garmashova // Young scientist. - 2011. - No. 2. T.1. - S. 90-94

U D K 65.012 + 519.245

L. V. Kirina 1, L. A. Astanina 2

Institute of Economics and Organization of Industrial Production SB RAS Akad. Lavrentieva, 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia E-mail: 1 [email protected]; 2 [email protected]

SIMULATION OF INNOVATIVE PROCESSES

A characteristic feature of innovative processes, especially at the design stage, is a high degree of uncertainty associated with the multivariance of design decisions and a number of other factors. To make rational decisions, to determine the probability of achieving the desired results in the course of the innovation process, it is proposed to use a simulation tool - an alternative stochastic network model.

Key words: uncertainty, simulation modeling.

In the course of the market reform in Russia, the problem of the effective use of scientific and technological achievements in production does not disappear, but, on the contrary, for many enterprises that are faced with new problems of competition, survival in harsh market conditions, it is innovation and its results that can become a condition success. Scientific and technological development enterprises is manifested in the course of implementation of various innovative projects. content innovative project is to conduct research and development aimed at creating a scientific and technological innovation. Such projects, which are the main form of business organization in knowledge-intensive and technology-oriented firms, along with general characteristics, inherent in all investment projects, have a number of specific properties that are characteristic of innovative projects:

A higher degree of both commercial and technical uncertainty of the project parameters reduces the reliability of the preliminary financial and economic assessment;

The orientation of innovative projects towards long-term results necessitates the creation of a reliable forecasting base and careful consideration of the time factor in financial and economic calculations;

Involving highly qualified specialists in projects, as well as unique resources, requires a deep study of the individual stages and stages of each innovative project, etc.

Any innovative project, being an investment project, requires taking into account various factors that may affect financial and economic indicators. Such analysis is traditionally carried out within the framework of normative project evaluation models. However, as practice has shown, despite the advantages of the normative approach (simplicity, consistency, formalizability of the decision-making process), the innovative projects selected in this way were not always effective enough, and often simply unsuccessful.

This is due to the action of a number of uncertainties that are poorly formalized, but can significantly affect the level of future income and costs. The project may end in failure, i.e., be unrealized or ineffective due to external reasons - inadequate market response, successful activities of competitors, etc. The reasons for the failure of the project may also be of an internal nature - errors in determining the project parameters during its evaluation and selection or in the process of implementation.

ISSN 1818-7862. Bulletin of NGU. Series: Social and economic sciences. 2008. Volume 8, issue 2 © L. V. Kirina, L. A. Astanina, 2008

Thus, any innovative project contains a certain degree of risk. One of the risk factors is the scale of the proposed project, with large, expensive and long-term projects being more likely to be at risk.

Numerous studies have shown that the following factors may be important for the success of an innovative project:

Compliance of the project with the company's strategy;

Clear market orientation;

Overcoming information barriers in the areas of R&D and marketing;

Sufficiency of funds for R&D;

Encouragement of creative aspirations of staff;

Efficient Management project.

Project management can be defined as the art and science of coordinating people, equipment, materials, funds, and schedules to complete a given project on time and within budget. To achieve the goals of project management, various methods and models are used, such as the matrix organization of work, formalized methods for planning and controlling work, compiling and controlling cost estimates, risk management, conflict resolution, information systems, etc.

Control points correspond to those planned in the calendar plan;

The expenditure of financial resources corresponds to the planned one;

Resource costs are commensurate with the normative ones;

Provides income in the activities of the project participants.

The most sensitive factors subject to random influences are the volume, timing and cost of the project. Therefore, taking into account the uncertainty of future income and costs, as well as the timing of the implementation of individual stages of the project, is a prerequisite for effective management.

The modern project manager is forced to deal with uncertainty in a concrete and constructive manner, hence integral part common system project management should have a change management program that includes risk management, as well as the identification of factors leading to losses, cost overruns and additional time costs. A high degree of project risk leads to the need to find ways to reduce it. In the practice of project management, there are three ways to reduce risk: the distribution of risk among project participants, insurance, and the reservation of funds to cover unforeseen expenses. Evaluation of the reserve of funds, as a way to deal with risk, providing for the establishment of a ratio between potential risks and the amount of expenses necessary to overcome failures, seems to be an urgent task.

When designing an overall project management system, a conceptual model is needed that adequately describes the project and its interaction with other components of the system. Further, on the basis of a system-wide representation of the project, information can be obtained, which includes an estimate of the total cost of the project, the investment budget, the schedule for the implementation of the project, taking into account risk factors, an analysis of the necessary reserves to cover unforeseen expenses, etc.

The process of implementing innovations is inherently associated with economic risk, while the low percentage of implemented ideas determines the specifics of innovation management. Obviously, the earlier the unsuitability of an idea is revealed, the lower the costs will be at the subsequent stages of the innovation process. Hence, the specificity of innovation management is such that, on the one hand, it is necessary to stimulate the presentation of ideas related to product innovations with the help of the pre-project budget, and on the other hand, to systematically assess the chances of achieving success in product innovation before the development stage begins. So, periodic monitoring of the innovation process as part of strategic planning is required, as well as a controlled transition from the pre-project stage to the product development stage.

To better assess the stages of implementation of innovations, large industrial firms use duplication of work and active experimentation, while various options for creating a product are analyzed. Often, however, an enterprise cannot afford the costs associated with real-world experimentation. An economical method for solving a wide range of problems in this case is imitation. The simulation method has great potential for analyzing various options for product innovation, making rational decisions in the field of resource allocation and reservation, planning complex work packages in time, and determining the likelihood of achieving the desired results during the innovation process.

We define the innovation process as the process of creating and distributing a new product, technology or service, which includes a complex set of production, organizational, marketing and financial operations from the formation of an idea to its development in industrial production, release of a product on the market and achievement of a commercial effect .

Innovation processes are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty, especially at the early stages of creating a product innovation, for which a characteristic property is the presence of situations associated with the development of various alternatives for creating the concept of a new product, as well as individual components of the technical system. The multivariance inherent in the early stages of creating a product innovation, and the need to take into account other factors that have a significant impact on the innovation process, reduce the adequacy of deterministic network methods and determine the task of switching to stochastic graphs.

To solve this problem, a tool for parametric analysis of various options for product innovation is proposed, based on the use of an alternative stochastic network model of a set of operations.

Analyzing the structural features of alternatives, it is possible to identify a number of main types of alternative situations, various combinations of which make it possible to describe the process of innovation development quite fully.

Unlike a deterministic graph, the set of vertices of a stochastic graph is inhomogeneous and breaks up into a set of vertices of various types depending on the conditions that take place at their inputs and outputs. To display alternative situations, eight types of vertices are used, and the alternatives are described by the probabilities of their implementation.

The simplest in this model are the vertices of the type of vertices of deterministic graphs, at the input and output of which the logical condition A is realized (the logical operation "and"). In addition, to display various kinds of alternatives, other types of vertices are introduced, at the inputs and outputs of which the following logical conditions can be implemented: V - logical operation "or"; V is a logical operation that excludes "or". Combining possible conditions at the input (A^) and output (A, V, V), we get six main types of vertices of the alternative graph: A e L, A e V, A e V, V e L, V e V, V e V .

When analyzing alternatives, there may be situations where the further implementation of the process, i.e., the implementation of work outgoing from some events, depends significantly on the execution of arcs at the input of events. To display such situations, two types of vertices are additionally introduced, which are denoted as follows: VеV/Р, Vе V /Р.

Events that have a logical condition V at the input are considered completed if at least one job (/, e) from the set of jobs included in the event e has ended.

The completion of events that have a logical condition A at the output means the possibility and necessity to start all the work emanating from the event e.

Vertices with an output of type V describe the situation when, at the output of an alternative event e, one and only one job can be realized out of all the jobs directly outgoing from the event e. Each of these jobs (e, y) has a realization probability P(e, y), and the sum of the realization probabilities of all arcs emanating from the event e is equal to one (£P(e, y) = 1).

For events that have a logical condition V at the output, one or more alternatives for further development can be selected, with each direction being selected independently of the others in accordance with the selection probability P(e,]) (0< Р(е,]) < 1).

The most complex are events of the type VеV/Р, Vе V /Р (the seventh and eighth types, respectively), when the execution of work emanating from the event e depends significantly on the implementation of the arcs at the input of this event. In this case, at the output of the event e, not a vector is specified, but a probability matrix \ P "e, /], in which each element P "e, ¡ means the probability of the occurrence of the event ] if the event e occurred as a result of the implementation of the work (/ , e). For the matrix describing the probabilities of work implementation for events of the eighth type,

it is necessary that the sum of the elements in the rows be equal to one (^P "e ^ \u003d 1).

In the process of model formation, at the first stage, a structural diagram of the process under study is built. The construction of a block diagram consists in dividing the complex of works of the object under study into enlarged elements. The nature of this division is specific to various innovations and is determined by the type of object being created. The block diagram is built in the form of a tree-type graph. First, vertices are selected, in which alternative solutions. Essential for this stage is the definition of the type of logical conditions at the input and output of each of the vertices. At the next stage of building a block diagram, the main task is to determine the largest possible set of alternative directions. A stochastic graph representing the process as a whole is obtained by combining subgraphs representing the generated alternatives:

The final step in constructing an alternative stochastic graph is to determine the parameters of all its arcs. The parameters of the arcs of an alternative stochastic graph, such as the duration of work, the cost of performing operations, the necessary resources associated with the execution of work, as well as estimates of the probabilities of event outcomes, can be determined in two ways: either using group expert estimates or based on statistical data on past developments.

The analysis of a stochastic graph begins with modeling the topology of the graph and calculating the time characteristics. Network topology modeling is reduced to the choice of alternative paths, i.e., to determining which path the simulated process will take in each particular case. Thus, the entire set of network operations is modeled. The result is a particular implementation of a stochastic graph - a fixed network of deterministic jobs.

The time parameters of the graph are defined as follows:

1) if the event e has an input of type A, then early time the occurrence of this event is defined as Tpe = max (Tpe, Tpe + tj, e), where tie is the duration of work (i, e);

2) if the event e has an input of type V, then Tpe = min (Tpe, Ve + tie).

Modeling of random outcomes of alternative events is carried out by "playing" random numbers distributed uniformly in the interval (0, 1).

Recall that vertices with outputs of type e V, e V /P describe a situation where only one of many options needs to be chosen, i.e., at the output of vertices e, there is a group of mutually exclusive outcomes. Let n jobs (e, U), ..., (e, ]"n) come out of the vertex e V, and

^ P(e, ]k) = 1. Then if the chosen value random variable b satisfies non-

^P(e, js)< ^ Р(е, js), то выполняется работа (е,]к), а остальные не участвуют в

given implementation of the graph. Playing out the outcome of the event e V /P differs from the considered one in that the corresponding row of the matrix [Pre,] is selected as the probabilities of the implementation of work at the output of this event.

For vertices of the type eu, eu/P, when each possible direction of development is chosen independently of the others, the modeling of random outcomes of events is carried out as follows. Let n jobs (e, ..., (e, jn)) come out of the vertex e, on each of which the probability of its realization is given. n random numbers b, b, ... uniformly distributed on the segment (0, 1) are generated, which are compared with the probabilities P(e, A), ..., P(e, ]"n), respectively. Satisfaction of the condition bk< Р(е,.1к) означает, что работа (е,]"к) выполняется, в противном случае эта работа не участвует в данной реализации графа. Разыгрывание исхода события еУ/Р отличается тем, что в качестве вероятностей реализации работ на выходе выбирается соответствующая строка матрицы [Рге,;].

To analyze a model based on an alternative graph, modeling algorithms have been created that make it possible to obtain a variety of information related to the innovation management process and provide it in a user-friendly form using computer graphics. Carrying out a large number of graph implementations allows us to determine the stochastic parameters of the process: such as mathematical expectations and variances of development duration and cost, mathematical expectations of the early time of occurrence of events and reserves. Multiple simulation of a stochastic alternative graph with the help of modern computing tools makes it possible to obtain samples of the values ​​of random parameters of the duration and cost of the project, and use these data to construct histograms and empirical distribution functions of these random variables.

The distribution function of a random value of the project development time - makes it possible not only to reasonably predict the completion date of the entire project, but also to determine the probability of completion of the project by the appointed time, and also to determine the date by which the project will be completed with a given probability. Histogram and empirical function project cost distributions also provide valuable information that allows, in particular, to assess the likelihood of a project being implemented with a given total cost, for example, with costs not exceeding the initial cost. As shown by the conducted computer experiments, the functions of distribution of development parameters are sensitive to the quantitative decisions made on the development of innovations and are a flexible tool for possible analysis of organizational and technical measures. An elementary analysis of these selective functions allows, for each fixed strategy for the implementation of an innovation, to answer important questions about the relationship between the timing and probabilities of the implementation of measures, and the cost of resources. By changing the strategy and making appropriate changes in the stochastic graph, it is possible, based on the results of the simulation, to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of each strategy and about the trends in the implementation of a particular innovation. In addition, an alternative stochastic model makes it possible to determine the functions of density and distribution of product development parameters, taking into account the relative advantages of each of the options for its manufacture over the most important stages of the project by setting a subset of graph vertices, called control points.

So, the stochastic network model makes it possible to simulate, using modern computing tools, the process of evaluating and making decisions in places of alternative branching of the process, to determine full probability each of the envisaged development options, the time and costs associated with the implementation of a particular project. Thus

Thus, this model is an effective means of displaying, simulating and predicting the process of innovation implementation.

Bibliography

Kuznetsova S. A., Kravchenko N. A., Markova V. D., Yusupova A. T. Innovation management. Novosibirsk: Publishing House of SO RAN, 2005. 275 p.

Kuznetsova S. A., Kirina L. V. Innovative strategy of the enterprise: Method. allowance. Novosibirsk, 1999. 38 p.

The material was submitted to the editorial board on March 25, 2008

L. V. Kirina, L. A. Astanina

Modeling Innovation Processes

Innovation processes, particularly at their design stage, are characterized by high uncertainty, caused by multi-variance of design solutions and a number of other factors. To make rational decisions and to determine the probability of achieving desired results during an innovation process it is proposed to use one of imitation modeling tools - the alternative stochastic network model.

Keywords: uncertainty, imitation modeling.