In recent decades, the birth rate has been gradually declining in Russia. A decrease in the proportion of children leads to an increase in the proportion of pensioners and the aging of the nation, an increase in mortality. In recent decades, the birth rate has been gradually declining in Russia. A decrease in the proportion of children leads to an increase in the proportion of pensioners and the aging of the nation, an increase in mortality.

World War I and Civil Wars World War I and Civil Wars. Human losses in Russia amounted to 11 to 18 million people. The birth rate deficit amounted to 10 million people. Therefore, the total losses are estimated from 21 to 28 million people. WWII WWII. Human losses amounted to about 27 million people. Birth deficit from 11 to 20 million people. Total losses - from 37 to 47 million people. Losses from these two wars alone are estimated at 58 to 75 million people. (!) But at the beginning of the century there were other wars. And more recently, the losses in the Afghan and Chechen wars were huge !!!

1. Why in the years. there was a decrease in the birth rate and an increase in infant mortality? 2. Why in the years. Was there a decline in the birth rate? 3. When can we expect the next such decrease in the number of births?
Population and features of the demographic situation in the Altai Territory 2602.6 1378.8 Population 2602.6 thousand people. Of these, 1,378.8 thousand are women. In 2004, the population in the region decreased by 19 thousand people (of which 11 thousand are men). 65.4 years 59.3 years 72.2 years Average life expectancy is 65.4 years. For men - 59.3 years, for women - 72.2 years.

Population and features of the demographic situation in the Altai Territory 10.8% 0 Birth rate growth (10.8% 0). 15.8 High mortality of the population (15.8 cases per 1000 inhabitants). Negative E. p. since 1996, which is associated with a high mortality rate against the background of low birth rates.

Src="https://present5.com/presentation/3/16560766_225562008.pdf-img/16560766_225562008.pdf-1.jpg" alt="> Population of Russia. Number and natural increase.">!}

Src="https://present5.com/presentation/3/16560766_225562008.pdf-img/16560766_225562008.pdf-2.jpg" alt="> Population of Russia Since 1992, the country's population has been declining.">!}

Src="https://present5.com/presentation/3/16560766_225562008.pdf-img/16560766_225562008.pdf-3.jpg" alt=">"> Изменение численности населения на территории России В целом, на протяжении почти всего XX столетия население России росло. С 1900 по 1992 гг. оно увеличилось с 71 млн. до 149 млн. человек, то есть более, чем 2 раза (за счет естественного прироста, т. е. разницы между количеством родившихся и умерших). В этом же XX веке регистрировались и периоды уменьшения численности населения - демографические кризисы.!}

Src="https://present5.com/presentation/3/16560766_225562008.pdf-img/16560766_225562008.pdf-5.jpg" alt="> Population reproduction is a process of continuous generational change. In the narrow sense"> Воспроизводство населения - процесс непрерывной смены поколений. В узком смысле воспроизводство соответствует естественному движению населения, под которым понимается сочетание показателей рождаемости и смертности.!}

Src="https://present5.com/presentation/3/16560766_225562008.pdf-img/16560766_225562008.pdf-6.jpg" alt="> Natural increase 2002:"> Естественный прирост 2002 год: 1998 год (на 1000 жителей) Родилось 8. 8 человек Родилось 1. 32 млн. человек Умерло 13. 6 человек Умерло 2. 26 мнл. человек Прирост – 0. 94 млн. человек Естественный прирост населения - это разность между числом родившихся и числом умерших за определённый период. Родившиеся ЕП = Р – С, Умершие Р – рождаемость С – смертность ЕП - естественный прирост Положительный естественный прирост Отрицательный естественный прирост - естественная убыль Показатели естественного прироста, рождаемости и смертности измеряются в промилле (‰), т. е. в расчете на 1000 человек населения в год.!}

Src="https://present5.com/presentation/3/16560766_225562008.pdf-img/16560766_225562008.pdf-7.jpg" alt="> Population replacement indicators up to 2045 (forecast)"> Показатели воспроизводства населения до 2045 г. (прогноз) 1913 1926 1940 1960 1980 1991 1994 1999 2005 2010 2020 2045 годы Рожда- 47, 44, 33 23, 15, 13, 12, 9, 5 8, 4 5, 4 4, 9 2, 9 1, 8 емость 8 7 2 9 4 1 Смерт- 32, 21, 20, 7, 4 10, 11, 15, 14, 13, 14, 16, 25, ность 4 3 6 6 4 4 7 7 1 5 9 3 Естеств- 15, 23, 12, 15, 5, 3 2, 2 -0, 7 -6, 1 -6, 3 -7, 7 -9, 6 -14 - енный 4 4 4 8 23, прирост 5!}

Src="https://present5.com/presentation/3/16560766_225562008.pdf-img/16560766_225562008.pdf-8.jpg" alt="> The demographic crisis is a sharp decline in the country's population. In XX"> Демографический кризис - резкое сокращение численности населения страны. В XX в. в СССР и России выделяют 4 демографических кризиса: 1) 1914- 1922 гг. (причины: Первая мировая и Гражданская войны); 2) 1933- 1934 гг. (причины: свёртывание НЭПа, голод и репрессии); 3) 1944- 1945 гг. (причины: Великая Отечественная война); 4) 1992 г. - настоящее время (причины: общая динамика демографических процессов, социально-экономический кризис, последствия предыдущего демографического кризиса). Демографический кризис 1914- 1922 гг. (причины: Первая мировая и Гражданская войны) Периоды убыли населения России в XX в. обусловлены гигантскими социально- экономическими потрясениями, которые она испытала. Всего из-за демографических кризисов страна не досчиталась более 120 млн. человек.!}

Src="https://present5.com/presentation/3/16560766_225562008.pdf-img/16560766_225562008.pdf-9.jpg" alt=">The demographic crisis of 1933-1934 (reasons: collectivization, famine and repression); Forced collectivization - association"> Демографический кризис 1933- 1934 гг. (причины: коллективизация, голод и репрессии); Насильственная коллективизация – объединение мелких крестьянских хозяйств в крупные коллективные хозяйства (колхозы) с обобществлением земли, скота, орудий труда и т. д. Выселение сотен тысяч крестьянских семей и упадок сельского хозяйства. Засуха, постигшая многие районы юга России ещё более усугубила ситуацию. Всё это привело к голоду 1933 -1934 гг. Репрессия (от лат. repressio – подавление) - карательная мера, наказание!}

Src="https://present5.com/presentation/3/16560766_225562008.pdf-img/16560766_225562008.pdf-10.jpg" alt="> Demographic crisis of 1944-1945 (reasons: World War II ) The biggest"> Демографический кризис 1944- 1945 гг. (причины: Великая Отечественная война) Самые большие потери население России понесло в Великой Отечественной войне (1941 -1945 гг.) число погибших на фронте и в тылу приблизилось к 22 млн. , с учётом снижения рождаемости общие потери значительно больше.!}

Src="https://present5.com/presentation/3/16560766_225562008.pdf-img/16560766_225562008.pdf-11.jpg" alt=">Population change in Russia The population of Russia in the XVIII"> Изменение численности населения на территории России Численность населения России в XVIII –XX вв. Изменение численности населения на территории России и СССР по данным всеобщих переписей населения, млн чел. Территория 1897 1926 1939 1959 1970 1979 1989 СССР 125 147 191 209 242 262 286 Россия 68 93 108 118 130 137 147 В 1897 г. на территории современной России насчитывалось 67, 5 млн жителей из 124, 6 млн жителей Российской империи. Максимальным население России было в начале 1992 г. - 148, 7 млн человек. В конце 2002 г. в России насчитывалось 145, 2 млн постоянных жителей.!}

Src="https://present5.com/presentation/3/16560766_225562008.pdf-img/16560766_225562008.pdf-12.jpg" alt=">Change in the population of Russian regions (1926 -1989)">!}

Src="https://present5.com/presentation/3/16560766_225562008.pdf-img/16560766_225562008.pdf-13.jpg" alt="> "Demographic echo of the war" During the Great Patriotic War, the number of births"> «Демографическое эхо войны» В годы Великой Отечественной войны число родившихся было почти вдвое меньшим, чем в предыдущие годы. Спустя 20 -25 лет, в конце 1960 -х гг. родившиеся в годы войны вступили в брачный возраст, но число молодых семей было гораздо меньшим, как и число родившихся. Проявилось «демографическое эхо войны» Ещё через 20 -25 лет, в начале 1990 -х гг. ситуация повторилась!}

Src="https://present5.com/presentation/3/16560766_225562008.pdf-img/16560766_225562008.pdf-14.jpg" alt="> Population forecasts for Russia vary greatly. This is quite natural, since"> Прогнозы изменения численности населения России сильно различаются. Это вполне естественно, поскольку в значительной мере рост населения связан с состоянием её экономики.!}

Src="https://present5.com/presentation/3/16560766_225562008.pdf-img/16560766_225562008.pdf-15.jpg" alt="> Sex and age structure of the population of Russia 2002 The sex and age pyramid is a generalized demographic "portrait »"> Половозрастная структура населения России 2002 Половозрастная пирамида – это обобщённый демографический «портрет» населения страны. Она показывает численность населения в каждом возрасте и соотношение полов.!}

Src="https://present5.com/presentation/3/16560766_225562008.pdf-img/16560766_225562008.pdf-16.jpg" alt="> Sex and age structure of the Russian population Age composition Currently in Russia"> Половозрастная структура населения России Возрастной состав В настоящее время в России населения России рождаемость составляет около 9‰, смертность - около 15‰, естественная убыль населения - около 6‰. Происходит постепенное старение населения. Доля детей составляет около 18% и сокращается. Доля населения в трудоспособном возрасте - около 61%, в пенсионном возрасте - около 21%; доля населения пенсионного возраста довольно быстро увеличивается.!}

Src="https://present5.com/presentation/3/16560766_225562008.pdf-img/16560766_225562008.pdf-17.jpg" alt=">Gender and age structure of the population of Russian regions Currently Center and North-West"> Половозрастная структура населения регионов России В настоящее время Центр и Северо-Запад России (Псковская, Тверская области и др.) отличаются самой низкой рождаемостью (7- 8%о), самой высокой смертностью (15- 20 %о), самой значительной естественной убылью и самой высокой долей пенсионеров в населении. Сегодня восточные и некоторые северные регионы (Магаданская, Мурманская области и др.) отличаются средними показателями рождаемости и смертности (около 10%о), примерно нулевым приростом, небольшой долей пенсионеров в населении и самой большой долей населения в трудоспособном возрасте. В настоящее время в национальные автономии на Юге и Востоке страны (республики Дагестан, Тыва и др.) отличаются высокой рождаемостью (около 20%о), низкой смертностью (около 7%о), самым высоким в России естественным приростом и большой долей детей в населении.!}

Src="https://present5.com/presentation/3/16560766_225562008.pdf-img/16560766_225562008.pdf-18.jpg" alt=">"> Расселение – это процесс заселения территории и сформировавшаяся в его результате сеть поселений. Зона Севера зона очагового заселения Проживает 7% населения Занимает 2/3 территории Плотность менее 1 человека на 1 км 2 Основная зона расселения Проживает 93% населения Занимает 1/3 территории Плотность более 30 чел. на 1 км 2 Крупнейшие города Главная полоса расселения занимает больше половины европейской части страны, а в азиатской части она протянулась узкой полосой вдоль Транссибирской железнодорожной магистрали.!}

Src="https://present5.com/presentation/3/16560766_225562008.pdf-img/16560766_225562008.pdf-19.jpg" alt="> Russian population density Population density - number"> Плотность населения России Плотность населения – число жителей на единицу площади (чел. /кв. км) Особенно высокой плотностью населения в России Самая низкая плотность населения выделяются Московская область (более 300 человек на 1 км 2) в Эвенкийском АО - и некоторые северокавказские республики. 1 человек почти на 40 км 2 145 млн. человек российского населения проживают на площади 17, 1 млн. кв. км. Таким образом, средняя плотность населения России составляет менее 9 чел. /кв. км. Это почти в пять раз меньше среднемирового показателя (44 чел. /кв. км).!}

Src="https://present5.com/presentation/3/16560766_225562008.pdf-img/16560766_225562008.pdf-20.jpg" alt="> Differences in the population of Russia were formed under the influence of interrelated factors:"> Различия в заселённости России складывались под влиянием взаимосвязанных факторов: природных, исторических, социально-экономических. Неблагоприятная зона Природные условия определяют благоприятность той или иной территории для постоянного проживания и некоторых видов хозяйственной деятельности людей. Благоприятная зона В России только 10% территории имеют благоприятные для жизни человека условия. На них сосредоточено 30% всего населения.!}

Src="https://present5.com/presentation/3/16560766_225562008.pdf-img/16560766_225562008.pdf-21.jpg" alt=">Thus, Russia is one of the largest countries in the world in terms of population .In recent"> Таким образом, Россия является одной из крупнейших стран мира по численности населения. В последние годы численность населения нашей страны уменьшается, средняя плотность населения низкая, и размещено оно по территории страны очень неравномерно.!}

Topic POPULATION

Number and natural increase

Prepared by: Zadylyak L.M.,

Kaliningrad

POPULATION

2. Number and natural increase of the population

Population geography studies the composition, placement, movement, lifestyle

Demography – gr. - people , the science of the laws of reproduction; studies the distribution by sex and age, marriages.

Population depends on natural and mechanical movement

natural movement – change in population through births and deaths

mechanical movement (?)

Demographic Information serve to develop demographic policy, workforce planning

Population census V Crimean Federal District 2014 was held from 14 to 25 October in connection with the entry of the Republic of Crimea and the federal city of Sevastopol into the Russian Federation.

Reproduction – change of generations through births and deaths (in ppm), t. per 1000 inhabitants

2 types of reproduction

1 - medium and low birth rates, a sharp decrease in mortality, a slowdown in population growth

2 - very high birth rate with reduced mortality, high population growth rates

natural increase

E etc. = P - C

R S - extended

reproduction

P = C - simple

R - constricted reproduction

Vital movement of the population

U page 26

Place in the world. The USSR ranked 3rd in the world

As of January 1, 2015, according to Rosstat, in Russia there were 146 267 288 permanent residents

10 largest countries in the world by population(2015)

Place

A country

China

Population

India

date

1,367 ,510,000

1,264, 990,000

% of world population

320 ,132,000

Indonesia

252 ,164,800

Brazil

Pakistan

203, 692,000

Nigeria

188 ,611,000

Bangladesh

178 ,517,000

157, 609,000

Russia

146 ,270,033

Japan

127 ,130,000

Item check

According to the annual Report of the United Nations Population Fund for 2011, in Russia there is demographic crisis. The total fertility rate was 1.539.

Almost 60% of all deaths occur due to diseases of the cardiovascular system, about 15% more - from cancer, about 4% each - from respiratory and digestive diseases. 45% of deaths from respiratory diseases are caused by tobacco smoking. According to experts, the annual death rate from diseases associated with smoking is up to 400 thousand people a year.

Anamorphosis map*

countries of the world by population in 2050

* Anamorphosis- a graphic image derived from a geographic cards, the scale of objects on which is proportional to the value of their characteristics.

Age-sex pyramids- a graphical representation of the distribution of the population by sex and age, used to characterize gender and age composition of the population.

for 2014

Largest regions by population

Region

total

Moscow

Urban population

Moscow region

Krasnodar region

Rural population

Saint Petersburg

Sverdlovsk region

Rostov region

Rep. Bashkortostan

Republic of Tatarstan

Tyumen region

Chelyabinsk region

Nizhny Novgorod Region

Kaliningrad region

Regions with the smallest population

Region

total

Tyva Republic

Urban population

Republic of Kalmykia

Altai Republic

Rural population

Jewish Autonomous Region

Magadan Region

Chukotka

Nenets Autonomous District

Sources:

• Textbook. Geography. Population and economy V.P. Dronov. M. Drofa. 2010 Internet maps
• Textbook. Geography. Population and economy V.P. Dronov. M. Drofa. 2010 Internet maps
• Textbook. Geography. Population and economy V.P. Dronov. M. Drofa. 2010 Internet maps
• Textbook. Geography. Population and economy V.P. Dronov. M. Drofa.2010
• Internet cards

The population is a continuously renewing in the process of reproduction set of people living on the earth as a whole or within any part of it.

The number and trends of its change are the result of the natural and mechanical movement of the population.

Vital movement of population (reproduction)- a set of processes of fertility, mortality, natural increase or natural loss. The natural movement of the population is ensured by the mode of reproduction.

Under reproduction of the population understand the continuous renewal and change of human generations (depending on the ratio of births and deaths, the reproduction of the population can be expanded, simple and narrowed). The decisive influence on the reproduction of the population is exerted by complex demographic processes, due to the historical development and demographic characteristics of the nation, as well as the socio-economic conditions of people's lives.

mechanical movement- Migration processes or the movement of people from one area to another.

Natural and mechanical movement are usually measured in special units - ppm (or one per thousand).

The most accurate data on the number and characteristics of the inhabitants of a given country are provided by general population censuses. At the same time, a questionnaire containing a wide range of questions (sex, age, level of education, nationality, religion, employment, housing conditions, etc.) is filled out for each resident of the country. On the territory of Russia, general population censuses were conducted in 1897, 1926, 1937, 1939, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989, 2002, 2010.

During most censuses, the actual population was also determined (located in any territory at the time of the census), and permanent(most of the year living in this area). On a national scale, the number of present and permanent population is almost the same. But for specific territories, the differences can be significant. In large cities with an influx of migrants, as a rule, the actual population is larger than the permanent one, while in small towns and rural areas, the permanent population is usually larger than the permanent one. In resort areas during the holiday season, the actual population may exceed the permanent population by several times.

In the period between general censuses, a current population census is maintained, in which for each annual period the number of births and deaths, as well as the number of arrivals and departures for a particular territory, is recorded. Accordingly, information on the population of the country and its individual parts can be obtained for each year (at its beginning or on average for the year), but these will be generalized data without disclosing most of the individual characteristics of the inhabitants (ethnic composition, level of education, etc.).

The territory that is today part of the Russian Federation was inhabited by people 10-12 thousand years ago. But the population on it almost all this period grew very slowly. only at the beginning of the 18th century. The population on the territory of modern Russia reached 10 million people, and by the end of this century it exceeded 20 million people. In the 19th century population growth accelerated somewhat. By the middle of the century, the population was about 40 million people, and by the time of the first general population census (1897) - 67.5 million people out of 124.6 million people who lived at that time in the Russian Empire.

Particularly rapid population growth was observed in the first decade of the 20th century. In 1913, the population on the territory of modern Russia reached 90 million people, i.e. annual growth in that period was about 2%. The First World War and the Civil War, as well as the economic devastation, famine and epidemics caused by them led to a decrease in the country's population. By 1920, fewer people lived on the territory of Russia than in 1913 - about 88 million people (i.e., depopulation occurred). This period became first demographic crisis throughout the country in the 20th century.

During the existence of the USSR, the population of the country gradually grew, but with a slowdown and new demographic crises. The general slowdown in population growth rates (from an annual 1.5% in the 20-30s to 0.7% in the 80s) is associated with the demographic transition that the country experienced in the first half of the 20th century. At the same time, there was no “population explosion” (multiple and rapid increase in population), which is currently characteristic of developing countries, which is explained by the presence of several demographic crises. The second demographic crisis in Russia broke out in the early 1930s. Its peak came in 1933 and 1934. The crisis was caused by a massive famine that followed the forced collectivization of the country's agriculture. The third demographic crisis falls on the years of the Great Patriotic War. By its beginning (in 1941), about 111 million people lived on the territory of modern Russia, and in 1946 - only 98 million people. Natural population growth for 5 years was at least 5 million people. That is, the losses during the war years total more than 18 million people. Thus, without demographic crises, the population of Russia by the 90s could have been more than 200 million people. In reality, the numbers were much lower. Independent Russia, which was formed after the collapse of the USSR in 1991, became the sixth most populous country on Earth (148.7 million people at the beginning of 1992) after China, India, the USA, Indonesia and Brazil. At the beginning of the XXI century. Pakistan and Bangladesh have also overtaken Russia in terms of population.

Since 1993, the country's population began to decline, began fourth in the twentieth century. demographic crisis, continuing at the present time. Depopulation has affected almost the entire territory of the Russian Federation. By early 2006, the country's population had fallen to 142.8 million. The reduction was due to a very significant natural loss - the excess of the number of deaths over the number of births . Migration outflow from the country is insignificant and is covered by the influx of population from the former Soviet republics

The situation began to change only in the early 2000s. The natural population growth in Russia in 2014 amounted to 33.7 thousand people, in 2013 this figure was 19.1 thousand people. In 2014, for the first time in the modern history of Russia, 1.947 million children were born in the country.

By the end of 2014, in Russia, mortality among children under five years of age decreased three times compared to 1990, and maternal mortality decreased by 4.5 times compared to 1990. According to Rosstat's operational data, in August 2015 there was an increase in the value of natural increase in the Russian Federation compared to August last year by 3,481 people. The Central Federal District demonstrates a positive growth rate (in the CFD, a positive monthly growth was recorded in July 2015, for the first time since 1991). The decrease in natural growth was demonstrated only by the North Caucasian and Crimean Federal Districts.

According to Rosstat, in 2014, the average life expectancy in Russia is 71 years: 65.6 years for men and 77.2 years for women. After a serious drawdown of the nineties, it returned to the indicators of the late USSR and in 2010 exceeded them. In the 2010s, Russia entered the top five countries with the largest increase in life expectancy - the periods from 1990 to 2005 and from 2005 to 2013 were compared. In Russia, the increase in life expectancy for men was more than +7.3 years, and +6.5 years was added to the healthy life time. At the moment, Russia is in 4th place in terms of the increase in life expectancy. It should be noted that today there is no unambiguous scientific explanation for such a difference in the average life expectancy of men and women in Russia.

Whether the long-term trend of population decline has been overcome or only temporarily interrupted, the future will show. Now it can be noted that the population of Russia reached its largest size - almost 148.6 million people - by the beginning of 1993. In 1993, the population decline was recorded for the first time. After a slight increase in 1994, it became stable - the population of Russia was declining until 2009, by the beginning of which its number had decreased to 142.7 million people (5.8 million people less than in 1993). Already in 2008, the decline was significantly reduced, and in 2009-2013 the number of Russians increased by almost 929 thousand people. As a result, by the beginning of 2014, the population of Russia roughly corresponded to the level of the mid-1980s (Fig. 3.1).

Figure 3.1 Permanent population of Russia, 1960-2014, million people at the beginning of the year*

* according to the current accounting data - as of January 1; according to the population censuses of 1959 and 1970 - as of January 15; 1979 - January 17; 1989 - on January 12.

However, the population is not increasing in all regions of Russia. In 2013, the population of the Volga (-1.2%) and Far Eastern (-4.0%) federal districts continued to decrease, and in the Far East, the population decline increased compared to 2012 (-2.3%). In the rest of the federal districts, population growth was observed, but its acceleration compared to 2012 was noted only in the Central, Northwestern and, to a lesser extent, in the North Caucasian federal districts.

As for the regions-subjects of the federation, population growth was observed, as in 2012, in 29 regions-subjects of the federation, and in the remaining 54 regions the population was declining. The value of the overall growth coefficient varied from -13.6% in the Magadan region to 24.2% in the Republic of Ingushetia (in 2012 from -13.9 to 26.9% in the same regions), and in the central half of the regions - from - 5.4% to 2.1% with a median value of -2.2% (from -5.6% to 2.4% with a median value of -2.0% in 2012). The range of variation has somewhat decreased, and there has been a tendency to reduce growth.

In addition to the Republic of Ingushetia, in 2013, high population growth was noted for St. Petersburg (20.5%), the Chechen Republic (16.4%), the Krasnodar Territory (13.8%), the Moscow Region (12.0%) and Moscow (10.7%), as well as the Tyumen region (10.1%). Population growth in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Yugra, Novosibirsk and Leningrad regions decreased slightly compared to 2012, amounting to 7-8%. The increase in the population of the Kaliningrad region, on the contrary, increased somewhat, although it did not exceed 9%.

In absolute terms, the most significant population growth was recorded in Moscow (128.7 thousand people), St. Petersburg (103.9), the Moscow Region (85.4) and the Krasnodar Territory (74.0).

The most intensive decline in the population in January-December 2013 was observed, as more than once in the past, not only in Magadan, but also in the Jewish Autonomous (-13.3%) and Murmansk (-12.1%) regions. About 9-10% was the decline in the population of the Kurgan, Arkhangelsk, Bryansk regions and the Komi Republic.

In 2013, for the first time in 21 years, there was a slight natural increase - 23,000 people - but population growth was mainly due to migration.

The highest birth rate in recent years has been observed among women aged 25-29 years. For the first time it exceeded the birth rate in the group of 20-24 years in 2008, and in 2009-2012 the gap between them only widened. In 2012, for the first time since the 1980s, it exceeded the level of 100 births per 1,000 women (106.6%). The birth rate among women aged 20-24, after almost doubling in the second half of the 1980s and into the 1990s, remains relatively stable at about 90 births per 1,000 women. The growing birth rate of women aged 30-34 is gradually approaching this level (74.2% in 2012). Compared with the mid-1990s, the birth rate of women aged 35-39 has tripled (to almost 35%). The birth rate for women under 20 has stabilized at 27%. In the age group of 40-45 years, it gradually increases, but remains insignificant (about 7%). In the age group of 45-49 years, there are also signs of an increase in the birth rate, but in general, it has practically no effect on the overall birth rate, and its level is close to zero.

Population migrations

The mechanical movement of the population (migration) can be both external (emigration and immigration) and internal (intraregional and interregional). In addition, there is a pendulum migration - the daily movement of the population to work or to meet social needs.

When analyzing migration processes, be the following quantitative indicators were used:

The scale of migration (migration turnover) is the number of arrivals and departures to the area for a certain period of time (year). The difference between the number of arrivals and departures is called the net migration. It can be positive and negative. The largest positive balance of migration with a significant scale of migration indicates a strong turnover of personnel, poor survival in a new place, that is, low efficiency of migration;

The efficiency of migration is calculated as the ratio of the net migration to the number of arrivals (in %):

C - balance of migration;

K is the number of arrivals;

E - migration efficiency.

The intensity of migration is measured by the intensity coefficient, which characterizes the ratio of the size of migration to the total population in the territory under consideration.

Kig – migration intensity factor;

V ig - migration flows from i - territory to g - u;

S, is the population of the i -th territory.

These coefficients make it possible to estimate the intensity of migration for individual territories and are a measure suitable for comparing migrations in time and space.

Migration is the movement of people between settlements. In modern society, the degree of mobility of people (the proportion involved in migration) is constantly increasing. Accordingly, the growth of population mobility can be used to judge the general level of development of the country. The more migrants, the more active independent people in society, quickly adapting to innovations and changing external conditions of their lives. In contrast, in traditional societies, residents very rarely left the boundaries of the settlements in which they were born, trying to live in accordance with centuries-old traditions. Any innovations in such homogeneous societies were introduced with great difficulty. But they were easier to manage than a modern society, consisting of a large number of social groups and individuals who are aware of and defend their interests.

Migrations affect the change in the population of a particular territory not only directly, but also indirectly. Since permanent migrations are usually made at a young age, a young age structure is formed in the areas of influx of population, which leads to an increase in the birth rate and a decrease in the death rate. That is, the population is growing rapidly not only due to migration, but also due to high natural increase. On the contrary, an old age structure of the population is formed in the areas of outflow. Over time, the death rate becomes greater than the birth rate, and the population decreases not only due to the outflow, but also due to natural decline.

Migrations also affect the homogeneity of the national (ethnic) composition of the population of a given territory. In areas of long-term outflow of the population, the ethnic composition is, as a rule, homogeneous. The vast majority of residents are local natives. They are distrustful of visitors, especially if they are of a different nationality. Interethnic contacts and exchange of cultures in such areas are extremely difficult. On the contrary, in areas of influx of population, the majority of residents are newcomers and they often belong to the most diverse ethnic groups. Cultural and interethnic interaction (including interethnic marriages, adaptation to the customs of other peoples) is relatively easy.

The economic significance of migration lies in the redistribution of labor resources between regions of the country or different states. In this case, the population usually moves from areas of old development to areas of new development, where there are not enough workers, as well as from states with an excess of labor resources to those states where they are not enough. But during periods of economic crises, when the existing territorial proportions of the economy are disrupted, reverse flows of migrants from areas of new development or countries that received migrants are also possible. First of all, recent migrants who have not taken root in a new place begin to return.

There are several classifications of migrations, the most important of which are three.

First, all migrations are divided into internal within the same country and external the movement of people between countries. External migrations, in turn, are divided into emigration(leaving the country) and immigration(entry into the country). External migrations played a decisive role in the formation of the population of some modern states (USA, Canada, etc.). But in most countries of the world, internal migration is of primary importance.

Secondly, all migrations are divided into irrevocable(resettlement to a permanent place of residence in another settlement) and returnable when there is no change of domicile. Refundable migrations can be seasonal (most often they are associated with seasonal agricultural work), commuting (people live and work in different settlements, making daily trips) and irregular (on vacation, on a business trip, etc.). In the past, irrevocable migrations, which had a decisive influence on human settlement of the Earth, were of primary importance. In modern society, return migrations are the main ones.

Thirdly, all migrations are divided into voluntary And forced. Voluntary migrations are made for some specific reasons and can be ore(for the purpose of employment), recreational(to rest), cultural and community(shopping, services), etc. Forced migrants are divided into refugees(which cannot remain in the same place because of the threat to life, health and well-being) and deportees(who are forcibly relocated). Ideally, all migrations should be only voluntary, but in practice this cannot be achieved in the foreseeable future.

On the territory of Russia, internal migrations were almost always larger than external ones. Only three are documented period of intensive external migrations.

1. The end of the eighteenth century. - the beginning of the 19th century, when there was an active immigration of residents of Western European countries to the territory of the Russian Empire. Mostly the Germans moved, but also the French, Danes, Dutch, etc. Russia then invited everyone to develop empty lands in the south and east of the country. The bulk of those who arrived settled in the Lower Volga region. In total, more than 2 million people came, which was a significant figure for the population of the country at that time.

2. The end of the XIX century. - the beginning of the 20th century, when Russia was a country of active emigration. At the beginning of the period, mainly the rural population left Russia from overpopulated areas of the central part of the country (the territory of the modern Central Black Earth, Central regions), but not only for economic reasons (lack of land), but also for national and religious reasons - Jews and Old Believers left. Migrants went mainly to the USA and Canada, which during this period invited everyone to develop their vacant lands. At the end of the period (after the outbreak of the First World War and especially after the events of 1917), it was mainly representatives of the bourgeoisie, the nobility, the clergy, and the intelligentsia who left the country, who were not satisfied with the new government. They were sent primarily to Western European countries. In total, more than 10 million people left Russia during this period.

3. The modern period, which began in the mid-80s. Many representatives of those ethnic groups that have their own states left the territory of Russia - Jews, Germans, Greeks, and then (after the collapse of the USSR) representatives of the peoples of the new independent states - Kazakhs, Uzbeks, Moldovans, etc. Migration flows went to the corresponding countries (Israel, Germany, Greece, Kazakhstan, etc.). At the same time, Russians and representatives of other Russian peoples (Tatars, Mordovians, etc.) began to return to Russia intensively from the newly independent states. Since the second half of the 1990s, representatives of many indigenous peoples from neighboring states began to actively migrate to Russia, attracted by employment opportunities. Most of all, residents of Ukraine, Belarus and the states of Transcaucasia participate in such trips (mainly return migrations).

In total, several million new residents have moved to Russia over the modern period. The flow of migrants has significantly reduced the decline in the country's population, which is observed due to the high natural decline.

Internal migration throughout almost the entire XX century. preserved the directions that had been formed during the previous centuries. There was a settlement of the northern and eastern regions of modern Russia, as well as the resettlement of Russians and other Russian peoples in the Soviet Union republics. True, since the 1970s, Russia began to have a positive migration balance when exchanging with the southern republics of the USSR, where, due to high natural growth, “demographic pressure” began on representatives of non-indigenous nationalities.

The areas of the Asian part of Russia and the European North, in which new natural resources were developed, were distinguished by a particularly strong migration influx. People were attracted there by various benefits: high wages, lowering the retirement age, etc.

The Central and Northwestern regions were also characterized by a stable migration influx, but this happened due to the intensive arrival of migrants to Moscow (with the Moscow region) and St. Petersburg (with the Leningrad region). From other regions of these two districts there was an outflow of the population. Migration played a special role in the formation of the modern population of the Kaliningrad region, whose indigenous inhabitants were taken to Germany in 1945, and in return, immigrants from Russia and other union republics of the former USSR arrived.

A relatively small migration influx had the North Caucasus region, in the Russian regions of which, due to favorable natural conditions, people of retirement age who worked in the regions of the North willingly settled. The national republics of the North Caucasus, as a rule, had a negative balance of migration due to agrarian overpopulation caused by high natural growth. Territories of the Volga and Ural regions in the first half of the twentieth century. had, as a rule, a positive balance of migrations, and in the second half it was close to zero or negative. The territories of the Volga-Vyatka and Central Chernozem regions were characterized by a stable migration outflow. That is why the population of these two regions by the end of the twentieth century. decreased compared to its first half.

In addition to inter-district movements, the migration of rural residents to urban settlements had a huge scale. In some years they amounted to more than 1 million people. The first to join them were the inhabitants of the Central and North-Western regions (as early as the end of the 19th century), then the population of other Russian regions, and by the 80s of the 20th century. - and residents of almost the entire territory of Russia.

In the 1990s, the directions of internal migrations almost reversed. Under the conditions of the socio-economic crisis, the “northern” benefits lost their significance, and a massive outflow of the population from the northern and eastern parts of the country began. The former regions of outflow in the old developed regions of the country, on the contrary, began to have a significant positive balance of migrations (with the exception of the North Caucasian republics, in which the outflow due to agrarian overpopulation and complex interethnic relations has been preserved). Basically, people who had previously left for the northern and eastern regions of the country began to return to them. For several years (in 1992-1994) there was also an outflow of urban residents to the countryside, but then the migration balance of urban settlements again became positive. The overall mobility of the population has decreased as a result of the socio-economic crisis.

According to tentative estimates, more than 20 million employed and students in Russia participate in daily commuting trips. They are especially developed within urban agglomerations, where commuting migrants move mainly between the suburban area and the central city. So, about 800 thousand people come to Moscow from the suburban area of ​​the metropolitan agglomeration every day to work or study, and about 100 thousand people leave Moscow to meet them in suburban settlements.

Classical seasonal migrations in Russia are developed in the very north - in the tundra and forest-tundra zones, as well as in the mountainous and foothill regions of the south of the country. In both cases, they are associated with the specifics of pastoral animal husbandry (reindeer or sheep breeding), when there are winter and summer pastures remote from each other, to which seasonally inhabited settlements are attached. Reindeer herders live in summer in the north - in the tundra, and in winter in the south - in the forest tundra. Sheep breeders live in the mountains in summer, where summer pastures are located, and in winter in the foothills near winter pastures. With a certain degree of conventionality, seasonal migrations can be attributed to the widespread travel of city dwellers in the 1990s to the countryside in the summer - to their summer cottages and garden plots or to rural relatives. At the same time, the townspeople provide themselves with certain types of food and have a rest, while the rural residents receive the labor assistance necessary during the summer season.

Forced migrations have a significant scale on the territory of Russia. They received great development in the 19th century, when, after the end of the Caucasian wars, many representatives of the Muslim North Caucasian peoples left their homeland: Adyghes, Circassians, Shapsugs, Abazins. They were forced to leave for the Ottoman Empire, which was close to them in religion - mainly to the territory of modern Turkey. But at the same time, during this period, Orthodox southern Slavs and Greeks, who settled in the Black Sea regions of the country, as well as Armenians, fled to Russia from the Ottoman Empire. Exiled settlers settled Sakhalin, which served until 1917 as a place of hard labor.

Forced migrations (deportations) were especially widespread in the 1930s and 1940s. Initially, “dispossessed” peasants and other “enemies of the people” (former nobles, clergy, members of pre-revolutionary parties and other groups) were sent to the North, to Siberia, to the semi-desert regions of the country, including large construction projects of the first Soviet five-year plans ( White Sea-Baltic Canal, Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works, the city of Komsomolsk-on-Amur, etc.). Then, as part of the preparations for the theater of military operations, the resettlement of entire "unreliable" peoples began. In 1937, Koreans from Primorsky Krai were taken to Kazakhstan and Central Asia. In 1939, the Poles were deported from the regions of western Ukraine and Belarus, newly annexed to the USSR, to Siberia. In 1941, the Germans, who lived mainly in the Volga region, were resettled in Siberia and Kazakhstan.

The deportation of peoples reached its greatest scale in 1943-1944, when Kalmyks (from the Volga region), Chechens, Ingush, Karachays and Balkars (from the North Caucasus), Crimean Tatars (from the Crimea), Turks- Meskhetians (from Georgia), Greeks (from the Black Sea region) and a number of other peoples. These forced resettlements were accompanied by heavy losses (up to 30% of all deportees died, or only in the first time after the resettlement) and still have a negative impact on interethnic relations in the country. At the end of the 50s, the Kalmyks and the peoples of the North Caucasus were returned to their homeland, but it was not possible to completely restore the previous situation, since neighboring peoples were resettled on the lands of the deported.

A new surge of forced migration has been observed since the late 1980s, when, as a result of regional wars and armed conflicts, numerous flows of refugees and internally displaced persons appeared on the territory of the former USSR. The largest masses of forced migrants (citizens of Russia) and refugees (citizens of other countries) gave rise to wars: Karabakh (in Azerbaijan), Transnistrian (in Moldova), Georgian-Abkhazian and Georgian-Ossetian (in Georgia), inter-Tajik (in Tajikistan), Chechen ( in the Chechen Republic), as well as armed conflicts: Ossetian-Ingush (in the Republic of North Ossetia), Uzbek-Meskhetian (in Uzbekistan), Kyrgyz-Uzbek (in Kyrgyzstan). In many cases, the flows of refugees and internally displaced persons went from neighboring countries to the territory of Russia, and in case of conflicts within Russia - to neighboring regions. The largest concentration of refugees and forced migrants is observed in the republics of North Ossetia-Alania and Ingushetia - up to 10% of the local population. In addition, the Krasnodar and Altai regions stand out with a large number of refugees and forced migrants (more than 30 thousand people each).

However, the first place in terms of attractiveness for migration in 2014 was not Moscow, but the Moscow Region, where the migration increase for 8 months of 2014 amounted to 67,918 people.

Moscow was able to grow due to migration by only 22,366 people - this is the third place in Russia after St. Petersburg.

The northern capital turned out to be somewhat more attractive for visitors; the population growth during this period amounted to 23,094 people.

On the fourth line of the rating is the Krasnodar Territory with a migration gain of 31,113 people. And the Leningrad region closes the top 5 regions of Russia in terms of attractiveness for migration, where from January to August 2014 the population grew due to visitors by 14,811 people.

Among the leaders in terms of migration growth were also:

in the North Caucasian Federal District–Stavropol Territory (+1935 people);

in the Volga Federal District–Republic of Tatarstan (+4596 people);

in the Ural Federal District– Tyumen region without auto-districts (+7252 people);

in the Siberian Federal District– Novosibirsk region (+5831 people);

in the Far Eastern Federal District- Amur region (+526 people).