Until 2050, 11 dangerous asteroids will approach the Earth.

Not a single asteroid potentially dangerous for the Earth will approach the Earth in 2016, RIA Novosti reported with reference to the forecast of the Antistihiia center of the Russian Emergencies Ministry. At the same time, about 11 dangerous asteroids will fly up to our planet over the next 35 years.

All celestial bodies that will approach the earth in 2016 will have a diameter of less than 100 meters. To large space objects, scientists include asteroids, the diameter of which is more than a kilometer. Such bodies crashed into the Earth about 120 times. The largest crater is in Russia. Its size is 100 by 75 kilometers. The fall of this meteorite scientists explain the mass extinction of organisms about 20 million years ago. The extinction of the dinosaurs was later and less massive. His scientists are also associated with the fall of a meteorite.

"In 2016, dangerous encounters with such asteroids are not predicted," the Antistihiia Center of the Russian Emergencies Ministry said in a statement.

The closest dangerous approach will take place on October 12, 2017. According to scientists, the asteroid 2012TC4 will fly by at a distance of 115 thousand kilometers from Earth. The speed of the celestial body will be 6.8 kilometers per second.

"The most potentially dangerous asteroid is Apophis (99942 Apophis), which has a diameter of 393 meters. On April 13, 2029, it will approach the Earth at a distance of 38.4 thousand kilometers, which is close to the height of the orbits of geostationary satellites (35.8 thousand kilometers). The rate of convergence will be 7.42 kilometers per second," the forecast says.

“Until 2050, 11 asteroid encounters are predicted to distances smaller than the average radius of the lunar orbit (385,000 kilometers). The sizes of these objects are in the range from seven to 945 meters,” the Antistihiia center said.
Earlier it was reported that in December-January, residents northern hemisphere will be able to see a real heavenly show. Comet Catalina with two tails will fly past the Earth, which, weather permitting, can be seen with the naked eye.

The asteroid Apophis in 2068 may fall to the Earth, and in 2029 it will pass at a distance ten times closer to the planet than the distance from the Earth to the Moon, according to the Department of Celestial Mechanics of St. Petersburg State University. They prepared the corresponding report for the Moscow Royal Readings on astronautics, quotes from it are given RIA News" .

“A unique feature of this asteroid is the precisely established close approach to the Earth on April 13, 2029 at a distance of 38 thousand kilometers (the Moon is 384 thousand kilometers away from the Earth). This approach causes a significant dispersion of possible trajectories, among them there are trajectories containing the approach in 2051.

The corresponding resonant returns contain many (about a hundred) possible collisions of Apophis with the Earth today, the most dangerous - in 2068, "

- says the abstracts of the report, which will be announced at the readings at the end of January.

Before a possible collision with the Earth in 2068, the asteroid will approach our planet in 2044 by 16 million kilometers, in 2051 by 760 thousand kilometers, and in 2060 by 5 million kilometers.

The asteroid Apophis was discovered in 2004 by the Kitt Peak Observatory in Arizona. Its diameter is about 325 m, the asteroid reflects only 23% of the light falling on its surface.

According to researchers, the TNT equivalent of an explosion in the fall of an asteroid to Earth would be 506 megatons. For comparison, the energy release during the fall of the Tunguska meteorite is estimated at 10–40 Mt, the energy of the Tsar Bomba explosion is 57–58.6 Mt, the explosion of the Krakatoa volcano in 1883 was equivalent to about 200 Mt.

The effect of the explosion could vary depending on the composition of the asteroid, as well as the location and angle of impact. In any case, the explosion would have caused massive destruction over an area of ​​thousands of square kilometers, but would not have created long-term global effects like an "asteroid winter".

In the event of a fall into the seas or large lakes, such as Ontario, Michigan, Baikal or Ladoga, a devastating tsunami would not have happened.

All settlements, located at a distance of 3-300 km, depending on the relief of the impact area, would be completely destroyed.

He noted that in this moment instead of civil defense, a life safety course is being conducted.

“We can say in the resolution that we need to contact the Ministry of Education in order to jointly discuss the issue of minimizing damage from space threats,” Sergeyev said.

Frightened, nasty

On the morning of September 2, 2016, several dozen news resources on the Russian Internet for some reason sounded the alarm: they say that they are flying at us huge asteroid 2016 QA2 - the older brother of the Chelyabinsk meteorite. Soon it will fall and bring innumerable troubles and destruction.

Here is a characteristic quote from one of the news sites: “According to experts, this asteroid is very dangerous, because it is quite capable of provoking extremely serious relationships at the site of its impact. That is why all those people who may be in the alleged impact zone of the object are in danger.”

In fact, no experts have said anything of the sort. At least about 2016 QA2. There is only one truth in all the alarming messages: as confirmed a few days ago, the asteroid 2016 QA2 really exists.

But the asteroid has already passed the Earth. Flew almost a week ago - August 28, 2016. So you can relax. The media are now making noise after the block moving away from the Earth.

Another thing is worse: the asteroid was discovered very late - a few hours before its dangerous approach to our planet. That is, astronomers, in fact, missed it. What if the asteroid had hit the Earth? Many would not even have had time to evacuate. Not to mention how to defend themselves - to shoot down a block with a rocket, as it is supposed to be done in the near future.

Better late than never

The first 2016 QA2 was discovered by the Brazilians from the Southern Observatory for Near Earth Asteroids Research (SONEAR Observatory), which is precisely aimed at searching for asteroids approaching the Earth and large meteorites. We saw a block on August 27, 2016.

According to preliminary data, the diameter of 2016 QA2 is from 40 to 50 meters. The asteroid has no family relationship with the Chelyabinsk meteorite. It's just close in size - about three times larger.

On August 28, 2016, asteroid 2016 QA2 flew by about 77,000 kilometers from Earth. By cosmic standards, this is close - five times closer than from us to the moon. In a word, scared. And it continues to scare thanks to untimely attending news providers. Hang up!

Not the first time

In 2011, astronomers missed the asteroid 2011 MD, a 20-meter block. We noticed 5 days before the approach. It’s good that she didn’t crash into us, but she passed very close - at a distance of 12 thousand kilometers.

In 2008, a small asteroid was seen in just a day, which eventually exploded over Sudan.

And no one noticed the 17-meter Chelyabinsk meteorite until it exploded.

AND AT THIS TIME

Russia is not afraid of asteroids

Back in 2007, British scientist Nick Bailey (Nick Bailey) from the University of Southampton (University of Southampton) calculated the damage from falling relatively small - tens and hundreds of meters of asteroids. And identified the most vulnerable countries. Nick is one of the authors of the software for the NEOimpactor program, which allows you to make such calculations, taking into account data on near-Earth objects collected by NASA.

So, the computer gave out a dozen countries, the destruction and victims in which will be horrendous. Perhaps such that these countries will not recover at all.

Worst of all it will be to China , Indonesia , India , Japan and the USA . This is followed by the Philippines, Italy, United Kingdom, Brazil and Nigeria.

Russia, fortunately, is not included in the "killer top 10". Obviously, due to its open spaces, backwardness and sparsely populated individual regions. In some places, in terms of development, nothing has changed since the fall of the Tunguska meteorite in 1908. Fell what? Didn't even destroy anything. Didn't kill anyone. Although it became a global event.

Of course, if a block 10 kilometers in diameter crashes into the Earth, similar to the one that killed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago ... Or even larger ... Then, no matter what country it hits, the end will come to everyone. But such cataclysms, according to scientists, happen no more than once every 100 million years.

Time, of course, makes adjustments to any calculations. The fall of the Chelyabinsk meteorite on Russia in 2013 showed that our country cannot be considered completely invulnerable - in the sense of strikes from space. On the other hand, there were no casualties, and there were no major destructions.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN

Astronomers promise: in September, 6 blocks will fly near the Earth - from among, of course, discovered.

Sept 7: 2004 DQ41 is a giant asteroid a kilometer across, 38.9 Earth-to-Moon distances (LD) from Earth

Nothing threatening. Unless, of course, some secretive asteroid, like the current 2016 QA2, suddenly jumps right next to the Earth.

The flight path of the "terrible asteroid 2016 QA2". The celestial body, discovered catastrophically late, almost hit the Earth.

The team of Russian scientific institutes and centers recognized it as safe and effective way destruction of an asteroid threatening the Earth by launching a nuclear device towards it. As stated in an article published by scientists in the Astronomical Journal published by the Russian Academy of Sciences (N9, Volume 96), detonating a nuclear charger (NCD) is the most radical way to counter such dangerous celestial bodies as an asteroid, but also effective.

"Calculations have shown that this method is effective and practically safe, if certain conditions are met," the article says. Scientists propose to destroy the asteroid during its approach to the Earth, preceding the orbit, when the asteroid will directly fall on the planet. "This is real, since almost all dangerous asteroids appear in near-Earth space several times before falling to Earth," the article says.

The proposed way to eliminate the space threat is an extreme option when other ways to stop the danger are impossible. For example, there are possible options for soft removal of an astroid from a dangerous trajectory, when a spacecraft is located nearby at a long distance, deflecting a dangerous celestial body due to gravity. "Soft removal from the collision orbit may be required many times, while the destruction of the object occurs once," the scientists conclude.

But the study notes that the explosion of an asteroid shortly before falling to Earth (as was the case in the Hollywood blockbuster "Armageddon" in 1998) is absolutely unacceptable, since in this case a huge amount of highly radioactive fragments will fall on our planet. In the case of a celestial body being blown up almost immediately after approaching the Earth, some of the radioactive fragments may also fall to the Earth, but not immediately. This will happen only after a few years, and during this time their radioactivity will decrease from a catastrophic level to a simply dangerous one.

In work funded by the Russian science foundation, scientists of Tomsk State University, Scientific Research and Testing Center "Sirius", Institute of Applied Astronomy RAS, Institute applied mathematics them. Keldysh and the NRC Kurchatov Institute calculated the geometry of an asteroid explosion, the balance of energy and momentum, and the distribution of velocities in the case of complete and partial destruction of an asteroid.

Recall that in Europe in early 2010, a group of specialists to protect the Earth from asteroids NEOShield (Near Earth Objects Shield) was created. The NEOShield program is coordinated by the German Aerospace Center. The project includes organizations from Germany, France, Great Britain, Spain, the USA and Russia. As part of this project, Russian scientists have developed a system for deflecting asteroids threatening the Earth using nuclear explosions in space.

As of October 2018, about 19 thousand asteroids have been discovered in space, which can approach the Earth's orbit. For each known object, an orbit and a collision probability over 100 years ahead are calculated. Thus, astronomers are aware of almost all large near-Earth asteroids larger than 1 km, capable of causing a global catastrophe on Earth. Astronomers know much less about asteroids less than one kilometer in size due to the large number of such cosmic bodies. Of near-Earth asteroids with a size of 100 meters or more, scientists know no more than 10%, and about 1-2% with a size of 20-30 meters.

"Obsolete" "Satan" is proposed to be used to protect Russia from asteroids

For the destruction of asteroids in Russia, they plan to use the expired RS-20V (R-36M2) missiles of the Voyevoda (Satan) ICBM, which the army is replacing with the latest Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

As Anatoly Zaitsev, general director of the Center for Planetary Defense, said this summer, from intercontinental ballistic missiles RS-20V (R-36M2) want to create a rapid response echelon international system planetary defense "Citadel".

"Since the total number of near-Earth asteroids (NEA) larger than 15-20 meters (such as the Chelyabinsk asteroid) is several million, at the current detection rate of about 2 thousand per year, it will take millennia to detect them all," the head said. center.

According to him, astronomers do not see a threat in 20 thousand asteroids approaching the Earth, whose orbits are calculated. But after "space billiards" (collisions with other celestial bodies), "a non-dangerous object can become dangerous at any moment."

To protect the Earth from this threat, the Director General of the Center for Planetary Defense proposed the creation of a rapid response echelon of the Citadel International Planetary Defense System, which "will ensure guaranteed detection of NEAs moving even from the side of the Sun, at least a few days before a collision with the Earth." And when the asteroid is detected, then with the help of rocket-space and nuclear means of the echelon interception service, it will be possible to reject this dangerous object or destroy it.

According to Zaitsev, the creation of an operational response echelon of the Citadel International Planetary Defense System will cost about $5-10 billion. However, this is a reasonable price to pay to avoid a global catastrophe that an asteroid can cause on Earth. Over the past 600 million years, there have been about 60 collisions with celestial bodies with a diameter of more than 5 km, which led to global cataclysms.

On October 31, 2015, on Halloween, a 600-meter asteroid called Halloween swept by at a distance slightly greater than the distance to the moon. It was discovered 20 days before the approach to the Earth. Then the Center for Planetary Protection, together with the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation, simulated the consequences of an impact of such an asteroid using a special software package.

If that 600-meter asteroid collided with the Earth, then the energy of its impact would correspond to the explosion of 50 thousand megatons of trinitrotoluene. This is about three times the power of everything in general. nuclear weapons ever created by mankind.

The diameter of the funnel formed in this case would be about 10 km, and its depth would be 3 km. The size of the zone of destruction from the shock wave and seismic vibrations would be approximately 800 km. Number human casualties could amount to tens of millions if this fall were unexpected, as in the case of the Chelyabinsk meteorite.

How will the Citadel anti-asteroid echelon work?

The Citadel planetary protection system should include two echelons: short-term and long-term response, as well as two backup services - a service for predicting areas and consequences of falls celestial bodies and regional protection service.

The short-term (operational) response train "Citadel-1" is designed to protect against objects up to hundreds of meters in size, such as Chelyabinsk or Halloween.

99.9% of near-Earth asteroids (NEA) have such dimensions. The echelon should include the international ground-space surveillance service and two regional segments of the reconnaissance and interception service - "East" and "West" in the corresponding hemispheres of the Earth.

Echelon will work as follows: after detecting a dangerous celestial body, the entire arsenal of ground and space means, including the launch spacecraft(KA)-scouts.

Based on the information received, a decision will be made to launch spacecraft-interceptors to deflect or, in extreme cases, destroy a dangerous celestial body (HCB). A similar scheme was worked out 30 years ago, during an expedition to Halley's comet. Then the Soviet spacecraft "Vega-1" and "Vega-2" performed the function of scouts. Then, according to their target designation, the West European spacecraft "Giotto" passed at a given distance from the comet's nucleus.

Protection against cometary nuclei and asteroids, which are many kilometers in size, will be carried out by means of the Echelon of long-term response. Their interception will be carried out many months and even years before a possible collision with the Earth. This will require the use of super-powerful launch vehicles, power plants and other tools yet to be created.

If we talk about auxiliary services that are designed to secure the main assets of the System, then the Service for predicting areas and consequences of falling celestial bodies should develop options for evacuation and other rescue measures. One of the components of this service is a special hardware and software system developed for the Russian Emergencies Ministry. With its help, the consequences of the fall of an asteroid such as Halloween have already been simulated.

The second reserve service, the regional defense service, can be built on the basis of advanced aerospace defense facilities. A number of specialists working in this field believe that, with appropriate refinement, these funds will be able to protect the regions in their locations from decameter-scale objects such as Chelyabinsk.

To create an echelon, it is necessary to have satellite observers, since it is impossible to control the daytime part from the Earth celestial sphere. For this reason, by the way, the Chelyabinsk meteorite, which flew from the side of the Sun, was not discovered. This problem can be solved with the help of spacecraft. There are several projects of such spacecraft that can be placed in near-Earth or interplanetary orbits, as well as on the Moon. They will be equipped with telescopes operating in the visible and infrared spectral ranges.

A pair of such spacecraft will be able to provide guaranteed detection of hazardous celestial bodies (HCBs) approaching even from the direction of the Sun, at least a few days before the collision.

In order to influence the ONT in order to deflect it from the falling trajectory or, if necessary, destroy it, spacecraft-interceptors with means of influence will be launched. The choice of means of influence will depend on the characteristics of HCBs, their orbits, and the available time.

In the echelon of operational response, means of impulse (strong) impact will be used - kinetic strikers and nuclear explosive devices.

Work carried out at the Snezhinsky Nuclear Center showed that an asteroid 500 m in diameter could be destroyed by a dispersed explosion of 10 charges of 1 megaton (Mt) each. This allows, using modern rocket and space technologies, to organize operational protection against SCBs up to several hundred meters in size, that is, from about 99.9% of NEA. Protection against the remaining 0.1% of larger NEAs and cometary nuclei, which will be detected many years before the collision, will be carried out by means of the Long-range Response Echelon. In this case, in addition to impulse means, in some cases it will be possible to use weak means of influence. They are divided into means of direct influence ( rocket engines various types, etc.) and remote (lasers, solar concentrators, "gravitational tractor", etc.). The interception schemes in these cases will be similar to the already repeatedly implemented schemes of interplanetary expeditions to asteroids, comets and other bodies. solar system. At the same time, the interception means will perform tasks, as a rule, deflecting objects from a trajectory falling into the Earth.

“According to experts, this asteroid is very dangerous, because it is quite capable of provoking extremely serious consequences at the site of its impact. That is why all those people who are in the alleged impact zone of the object are in terrible danger, ”one of the news sites reported.

In fact, it would never have occurred to any experts to say something like that, at least in relation to 2016 QA2. In fairness, it should be noted that there is still a little truth in these disturbing reports: the asteroid 2016 QA2 does exist. But it has already passed the Earth. It happened on August 28, 2016, and therefore there is no longer any reason for concern.

The excitement is caused by another fact: the asteroid was discovered too late - just a few hours before its dangerous approach to the Earth. In other words, astronomers simply missed it. And in the event of a real threat, many would not even have time to evacuate, let alone defend themselves by knocking down a block with a rocket.

The first who managed to detect 2016 QA2 were the Brazilians from the Southern Observatory for Near Earth Asteroids Research, whose main profile is precisely the search for asteroids and large meteorites approaching the Earth. Experts spotted a block with a diameter of 40 to 50 meters (about three times the size of the Chelyabinsk meteorite) only on August 27th.

On August 28, an asteroid flew past the Earth at a dangerously small distance by cosmic standards - about 77 thousand kilometers (five times closer than from us to the Moon), seriously frightening observers. However, some media considered it necessary to disseminate information about this only now, sowing panic among the people.

This is not the first time astronomers have missed an asteroid. A similar thing happened in 2011 as the 20m 2011 MD approached. We noticed the asteroid only 5 days before the approach. And it’s good that everything worked out, because the block flew only 12 thousand kilometers from the Earth.

In 2008, a small asteroid was seen in just a day, which later exploded over Sudan.

Nobody noticed the 17-meter Chelyabinsk monster until the explosion occurred.

According to many scientists, Russia is not afraid of asteroids. Back in 2007, the British scientist Nick Bailey from the University of Southampton calculated the damage that would result if relatively small (tens and hundreds of meters) asteroids fell. At the same time, the scientist identified the most vulnerable countries. The computer gave out the "top 10" countries, the destruction and casualties in which will be simply horrifying. And I am glad that Russia is not among them. Worst of all will be China, Indonesia, India, Japan and the United States. This is followed by the Philippines, Italy, UK, Brazil and Nigeria.

However, do not relax. The fall of the Chelyabinsk meteorite on Russia in 2013 clearly showed that our country cannot be considered completely invulnerable from the point of view of strikes from space. Another question is that there were no casualties, as well as great destruction, in that case.

Future dangerous encounters of our planet with asteroids:

In September 2016, astronomers predict that 6 blocks will fly near the Earth (of course, already from among those discovered).

September 7 - 2004 DQ41 is a giant asteroid with a diameter of one kilometer, the distance to Earth will be 38.9 Earth-to-Moon distances (LD).