The world population is over 7.5 billion, about three times the population in the mid-twentieth century.

Table 1. Population in regions of the world (million people)

Table 2. Top ten countries by population in 2005 and 2016

Absolute (general) population growth occurs due to natural and migration (mechanical growth) of the population. In different regions and countries, the population is growing differently. Population growth rates in countries with different levels of socio-economic development are different. The highest growth rates are characteristic of the population of less developed countries. In the most developed countries, the population in 2016 amounted to 1254 million people, in the less developed countries - 6164 million people.

Under reproduction (the natural movement of the population) is understood the totality of the processes of fertility, mortality and natural increase.

natural growth- the difference between the number of births and deaths for a certain period of time. For example, in 2016, the number of births in the world was 147,183,065 people, deaths - 57,387,752. The natural increase was: 89,795,313 people.

Natural population growth is determined both in absolute numbers and per 1000 inhabitants of the country. The rate of natural increase per 1000 inhabitants is called rate of natural increase(KEP), it is measured in ppm (‰). The rate of natural increase is the difference between births and deaths per 1,000 inhabitants. For example, in 2016, the birth rate (per thousand inhabitants) of the world population was 20 people, and the mortality rate was 8. The natural increase in the world population was 12 people.

The rate of natural population growth can be either positive or negative. In some regions (Eastern and Southern Europe), there is an excess of mortality over births, i.e. natural population decline (negative or zero natural population growth).

Table 3 Demographic indicators of world regions and individual countries in 2016

There are two types of population reproduction: for more developed and less developed, developing countries. Developed countries are characterized by: average, low birth rates, natural increase, low population growth rates. For developing countries: high birth rate, decrease in mortality, high rates of natural population growth. In the group of developing countries, high birth rates and natural increase are characteristic of the population of most countries in Africa, West, Southwest, and South Asia. These indicators are somewhat lower in the countries of East Asia and Latin America.

At present, many countries are pursuing a state demographic policy - a set of measures aimed at regulating the birth rate in order to increase or reduce the natural increase in the population. Examples of countries where an active demographic policy is being pursued to reduce the birth rate are the countries of South Asia. In many European countries, including Russia, government measures are being taken to encourage families to have two or more children.

In the relatively recent past, even before the era of antibiotics and with widespread famine, humanity did not particularly think about its size. And there was a reason, since constant wars and massive famine claimed millions of lives.

Especially indicative in this respect were the two World Wars, when the losses of all the warring parties exceeded 70-80 million people. Historians believe that more than 100 million died, since the actions of the Japanese militarists in China to this day have not been adequately studied, although they killed a huge number of civilians.

Today there are other global problems. The demographic problem is one of the most serious and important among them. However, one should not assume that the sharp increase in the number of mankind began exclusively in our days. In the distant past, there were also sharp jumps in the population of individual countries, and all these processes often led to very serious consequences on a global scale.

What causes a population explosion?

It is believed that sharp bursts in population do have a positive side. The fact is that in this case, entire countries are “younger”, the costs of medicine are reduced. But that's where all the good ends.

The number of beggars is growing sharply, the cost of education is growing many times over, the number of specialists graduating from educational institutions is growing so much that the country simply cannot provide them with employment. A huge number of young and healthy people appear on the labor market who are ready to do work for very modest remuneration. As a result, the cost of their labor (already cheap) falls to a minimum. The rise in crime begins, robberies and murders quickly become the "calling card" of the state.

Comprehensive vision of the problem

In addition, in many regions of Central Africa the population has already been reduced to such a state of poverty that a large number of children who will work in the fields or beg is the only means of survival for the family. Growing up, they join the ranks of countless armed formations that continue to drive the entire region into even greater chaos. The reason is the lack of even elementary state support for social development, the absence of any sources of official income.

Other dangers of overpopulation

It is known that the level of consumption of modern civilization is many thousand times higher than the level of normal biological human needs. Even the poorest countries are consuming more than they did a couple of hundred years ago.

Of course, with a sharp increase in the population, the general impoverishment of most of it and the complete inability of state structures to establish at least some semblance of control over all this, the irrational consumption of resources increases like an avalanche. The consequence of this is the manifold increase in the discharge of toxic waste from artisanal enterprises, mountains of garbage and the complete neglect of at least some environmental protection measures.

What does all this lead to?

As a result, the country is on the verge of an ecological catastrophe, and the population is on the verge of starvation. Do you think modern demographic problems began only in recent years? In the same Africa, since the mid-60s, in entire provinces, people began to suffer from a lack of food. Western medicines made it possible to increase life expectancy, but its general way of life remained the same.

Many children were born, more and more land was needed to feed them. And farming there to this day is carried out by the slash-and-burn method. As a result, hectares of fertile soil turned into deserts, subjected to wind erosion and leaching.

These are all global problems. The demographic problem (as you can see) is characteristic of transitional cultures that have gained a sharp access to the benefits of modern civilization. They do not know how to reorganize or do not want to, as a result of which there are severe socio-cultural contradictions that can even lead to war.

Reverse example

However, in our world there are many countries in which the demographic problem is presented from a completely opposite angle. We are talking about developed countries, in which the problem is precisely that people of reproductive age do not want to create families, do not give birth to children.

As a result, migrants take the place of indigenous peoples, who often contribute to the complete destruction of the entire socio-cultural component of the ethnic group that previously lived in this territory. Of course, this is not a very life-affirming ending, but without the active intervention and participation of the state, such a problem cannot be solved.

How can the demographic problem be solved?

So what are the ways to solve the demographic problem? Solutions follow logically from the causes of the phenomenon. First, it is imperative to raise the standard of living of the population and improve its medical care. It is known that mothers in poor countries are often forced to give birth to many children, not only because of tradition, but also because of high

If every child survives, it will make less sense to give birth to a dozen children. Unfortunately, in the case of the same migrants in Europe, good medical care only led to the fact that they began to give birth even more. Approximately the same is observed in Haiti, where the vast majority of the population lives far below the poverty line, but continues to give birth regularly. Various public organizations pay benefits to many, which are quite enough for survival.

Medicine - above all!

Therefore, it is not necessary to be limited only to improving the quality of medical care. It is necessary to offer financial incentives to families with no more than two or three children, tax them less, offer simplified schemes for entering universities for children from such families. In other words, they must be dealt with comprehensively.

In addition, effective social advertising about the benefits of contraception, supported by the low cost of such drugs, is extremely important. It is necessary to explain to people that overpopulation entails poor living conditions for their children, who will not be able to live normally in the smog of large cities, devoid of greenery and clean air.

How to increase the birth rate?

And what are the ways to solve the demographic problem, if we have to fight not with overpopulation, but with a shortage of this very population? Oddly enough, but they are almost the same. Consider them from the standpoint of our state.

First, it is extremely important to improve the well-being of the population. Many young families do not have a child just because they are not sure about the future. We need affordable housing for young families, tax incentives, significantly increased payments of material benefits to families with many children.

Among other things, it is mandatory to provide the opportunity to obtain preferential medicines and food for children. Since all this costs a lot, many young families simply deplete their budgets by buying everything they need only with their own money. In the same row is the reduction in young and large families.

Of course, we should not forget about the promotion of family values. In any case, the solution of the demographic problem must necessarily be comprehensive, with the obligatory consideration of all the factors that lead to birth disorders.

Peter Grunwald, who studies the demography of the world, calculated that in the entire history of mankind, about 107 billion people were born. Over the past 6 thousand years, the absolute increase in the number of the planet has been maintained, despite famine, war and disease. How will the situation on the planet change in the near future?

Demographics of the world: statistics

There were a billion inhabitants on Earth at the beginning of the 19th century. It took humanity over a hundred years to double its numbers. Rapid population growth began in the 1960s. Every 11-16 years a new billion was added. About 7,320 million people live on Earth today. The top five countries in terms of the number of inhabitants:

• China (1374 million);
• India (1267 million);
• USA (324 million);
• Indonesia (258 million);
• Brazil (205 million).

Followed by: Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Russia and Japan. Unprecedented birth control measures have been carried out in China since the 1970s. High fines, forced abortions and sterilizations, pregnancy planning companies have paid off.

By 2015, the country's working-age population had decreased by more than 3.5 million people. Last year, the government officially allowed the families of the Middle Kingdom to have a second child. Today, China's population growth is just over 0.4% per year. For comparison, this figure is three times higher in India, seven times higher in Ethiopia, and negative in Germany and Japan.

The most populous countries are: Holland, Belgium, Japan, Korea, China. Mexico City remains the leader in the number of inhabitants among the cities of the world (19.5 million). The ratio of the total number of women and men on the planet is kept at the level of: 52% and 48%.

Forecasts in numbers

The UN committee, which deals with the demography of the countries of the world, claims that India will surpass China in size as early as 2025. In a number of countries: Russia, Germany, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Serbia, Japan, there will be a significant decrease in the number of inhabitants. Experts call the main reasons: the loss of family values, abortions, same-sex marriages, migration.

At the same time, there will be more than 9 billion people on Earth by the middle of the century. Significant increases are expected in 50 underdeveloped countries. Among them:

• Congo, Tanzania, Madagascar, Angola, Cambodia - 5 times;
• Nigeria - 4 times;
• Pakistan, Ethiopia, Egypt - twice;
• India by a third.

About half of all inhabitants of the Earth will live in Asia, a quarter - in Africa.

The data are approximate, the demographics of the world population can accurately calculate the numbers for the next two decades. Further, scientists are based on assumptions. Academician S.P. Kapitsa in his mathematical model assumes stabilization by 2135. According to various sources, by the end of the 21st century there will be from 11 to 14 billion people on the planet.

Modern problems of demography in the world

The situation on the planet causes enough cause for concern. Population growth is uneven, at the expense of the least developed countries. In the future, there will be an acute solution to issues related to low living standards.

In South Africa, which has the highest birth rate on the planet, life expectancy has fallen by 14 years over the past two decades. This is due to famine, epidemics, diseases, including AIDS, and a high level of infant mortality.

In prosperous regions, the main problems of demography in the world are:

• urbanization;
• aging;
• migration.

In 2009, for the first time in the history of mankind, the number of rural and urban residents on the planet equaled. Since then, the proportion of city dwellers has been steadily growing. This trend continues in the developed regions of the world. The highest rate of urbanization in the US (83%) and the UK (90%). For comparison: in India, there are twice as many rural residents than urban ones.

Why is this phenomenon considered negative? First of all, because of the direct connection with the deterioration of the environmental situation. To expand the urban area, forests are being cut down and new roads are being laid. Emissions from a growing number of cars are a major cause of air pollution.

The problem of ecology is especially urgent in megacities. The population density in some of the largest cities reaches several tens of thousands of people per square kilometer (New York, Mexico City). In many cities, there is not enough work for newcomers - slums are growing, crime is thriving.

In developed countries, in recent decades, there has been an increase in life expectancy. In Western Europe it is 2-3%, in the USA - 1-2%. The highest rate is traditionally in Japan and Scandinavian countries. At the same time, in Germany and Italy, the birth rate is steadily falling. By 2050, the proportion of people over 60 will be about a third of the population. There will be two disabled pensioners per 5-year-old child.

Many states, for example: Germany, Austria, Greece, Italy, maintain numbers solely because of the flow of emigrants. Because of this, there are: unemployment, unrest and ethnic conflicts. Increasing attention is being paid to process control.

The archetype of reproduction is characteristic of the earliest stages of the existence of human society, when, thanks to collective labor, it stands out from the surrounding nature. The economic base of such a society was the appropriating economy - hunting, gathering. At the same time, man only used the food resources of the natural landscape, by no means contributing to their increase. Therefore, the population in a certain territory was strictly limited by these resources, and the population could exist for a long time only on the condition that the death rate was approximately equal to the birth rate. Population growth could occur only through the development of new territories.

The first demographic revolution occurs during the transition from an appropriated economy to a producing one (agriculture and cattle breeding). Archaeologists called it the "Neolithic Revolution", the first economic revolution in the history of mankind "There is a transition to a settled way of life (see the article" "), the formation of permanent settlements: as a result, living conditions improve, the nutrition of the population becomes more stable, mortality is somewhat reduced, and the population begins grow, albeit at a very slow pace.

The traditional type of reproduction is inextricably linked with the agrarian economy and its inherent social relations. These relations are "traditional", that is, people's behavior is oriented towards the repetition of unchanging patterns ("how our fathers and grandfathers lived"). The issue of birth control could not appear here - such thoughts were alien to a person of traditional society. The traditional type of reproduction is characterized by a high birth rate, high mortality (including very high infant mortality - up to 200-300%), low natural increase and low life expectancy (25-35 years).

The second demographic revolution (demographic transition) begins in the countries of Western Europe and gradually spreads to almost the entire world. Its deepest causes lie in the change in the nature of society itself as a result of industrialization and urbanization, and the increasing role of the human person. The main sign of the transition to the modern type of reproduction is the regulation of the number of children in the family - that is, the family consciously decides how many children it will have.

Chronological changes in reproduction most often begin with a decrease in mortality caused by the following reasons: 1) health care successes (vaccination, pasteurization, later - antibiotics, etc.); 2) a general improvement in living conditions, including the improvement of nutrition and housing and communal conditions (water supply, sewerage, garbage chute, etc.), which is connected with the introduction of sanitary and hygienic skills (the habit of washing, washing hands before eating has entered the life of the broad masses population in Western Europe only since the 19th century); 3) a change in the psychology of the population in relation to diseases and the conditions of their life: if in entirely religious medieval Europe earthly life, full of suffering, was considered only a prologue to an eternal blissful existence in heaven (and therefore there was little point in fighting diseases, death), then, after the Renaissance and the Reformation, a new psychology is established: a person is the master of his own destiny, and his task is to improve earthly life, including fighting diseases and prolonging his earthly life.

The decline in fertility usually occurs later than the decline in mortality, and in this first period of the demographic transition (with a sharp decrease in mortality and a high birth rate), there is often an increase in natural increase by several times - a "population explosion". In the second period, the death rate continues to decline (albeit slowly), while the birth rate declines much more, and the natural increase decreases. In the third period, with continued decline in the birth rate, mortality begins to rise (as a result of the aging of the population), and in the fourth, with an almost constant birth rate (stabilized at a low level), the death rate continues to rise until it equals the birth rate (or even exceeds it), natural growth stops, and in some cases (Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Hungary) is replaced by a decline.

The reasons for the decline in the birth rate are more difficult to sort out, usually a set of interrelated reasons is listed: a decrease in child mortality (as a result of which there is no need to have “reserve” children), the organization of social security (that is, the state takes care of the elderly, and children are no longer are the only breadwinners in old age), the collapse of the old patriarchal family (which was also a production unit) and the emergence of small families where the upbringing of a large number of children is difficult, the emancipation of women and the emergence of a new value system, the main of which for them now are outside the home; an increase in the level of education and an expansion of the range of people's interests, an increase in the cost of raising and educating children (if in the agrarian economy children “pay for themselves” from an early age by working on the land, now you only need to “invest” money in them for up to 20 years), urbanization is a kind of integral indicator of changes in conditions and way of life: in urbanized areas (primarily in large cities), all of the above factors are stronger.

The current demographic transition is taking place differently in countries of different types (although all four of the above periods can be traced in all countries that have completed it). For example, Sweden passed it in 150 years, and the country's population during this time increased by 3.7 times; in developing countries, this happens over decades and the population grows much faster, for example, the population of Egypt will increase 4-5 times (depending on how quickly the transition is completed), Lexica - 7-10 times, and so on.

To make growth forecasts, a hypothesis developed by UN demographers is now accepted, according to which the stabilization of the number of inhabitants will begin when the average life expectancy reaches 74.8 years, the total fertility rate is 2.08 and the net reproduction rate is equal to one. At the same time, population growth will continue for some time to come, as more and more age groups will enter the fertile age. Only after a few decades, when the number and age structure of women of childbearing age will stop changing, will the overall birth and death rates equalize (at 13.4%) and population growth will stop. This will already be the so-called stationary population, all parameters of which (age and sex structure, birth and death rates, and ) remain unchanged.

The world population, according to this hypothesis, can stabilize at the level of 12-15 billion people in the middle or at the end of the 21st century. At the same time, the population of the countries of South Asia and Africa, in which the demographic transition will be completed later than in other regions, is growing the most. For example, the population of India will stabilize no earlier than it reaches 1.7 billion (India will overtake China and become the world's largest country in terms of population in the middle of the 21st century).

Differences in the natural movement and age and sex structure of the population of different countries and regions of the world are primarily due to the stage of the demographic transition in which this territory is located, and secondly, to external relations of the population: inflow or outflow of the population from outside. Since the migrations involve mainly relatively young people, the population in outflow areas is usually older, while in inflow areas it is younger, most often with a larger proportion of men of working age.

Countries that have almost completed the demographic transition (in Western and Northern Europe) have already come close to the state of the "stationary" population, the main parameters of which were given above. The opposite pole of the demographic situation is in the countries of South Asia and Africa, which are still going through the “peak” of the population explosion. The rest of the world's countries are, as it were, between these poles, gradually approaching the "European" state.

On the territory of the former USSR, the demographic transition was almost completed (that is, the death rate caught up with the birth rate and the population did not change) in Estonia and Latvia; the birth rate continued to be somewhat higher in Lithuania (which was later industrialized and urbanized, and where the Catholic religion, unlike the Protestant one, to some extent restrained the transition to birth control). The other pole is the states of Central Asia, especially Tajikistan, where the population explosion is almost in full swing (and now, due to the ongoing Islamization of society and a return to traditions, the emerging decline in the birth rate may well be replaced by its growth).

An intermediate position is occupied by Azerbaijan, where the decline in the birth rate (to a greater extent in the total coefficient, but also in the total) began in the 1960s; and Armenia and especially Georgia are already close to the “European type”. The overall indicators of Kazakhstan are influenced by a large (about half) share of the Slavic population; the same factor (but to a lesser extent) operates in Kyrgyzstan; in addition, among nomadic peoples, a woman has always been more emancipated than among settled peoples, and the degree of their Islamization was much less. Therefore, among the Kazakhs and Kyrgyz, the birth rate began to decline earlier than among the Uzbeks and Tajiks.

The Slavic countries of the CIS have, on average, a demographic situation very close to the "European" type, but inside they, especially Russia, are extremely heterogeneous. Within Russia, the regions of the "population explosion" (though already "on the decline" of it) are a number of regions of the North Caucasus (especially Dagestan) and Tuva. Regions with an almost completed demographic transition - the largest cities and their zones of influence, especially Moscow and St. Petersburg (although in this case it is impossible to talk about the population as a constant value, since all the largest cities in Russia, especially the capital ones, have attracted a lot of migrants until recent years , "rejuvenating" their population).

The demographic situation in the world has recently become one of the topical socio-economic problems. If in 1000 the population of the Earth consisted of 275 million people, then by 1900 we became 1.6 billion. In 1988, the five billionth earthling was born, and already at the beginning of the third millennium, the six billionth child was born on the planet. According to experts' forecasts, by the end of this decade the world's population may reach 10-11 billion people.

The 20th century was the century of a rapid decline in mortality and an increase in life expectancy throughout the world, and this led to an unprecedented increase in the world's population. True, for the first time an unusual acceleration of demographic growth due to the growing predominance of the number of births over the number of deaths was noted back in the 19th century. But then it was observed only in Europe and, compared with the acceleration of population growth in the 20th century, it was small.

Figure 7

In the second half of the XX century. population growth has exploded. It took the world's population 121 years to grow from one to two billion people, this milestone was reached in 1926; the new billion took 34 years, the next billion was added in 14 years, then in 13, the increase in the population from 5 to 6 billion people took 12 years and ended in 1999. The growth rate of the world population peaked in the 1960s; in the last three decades of the 20th century, they gradually decreased, but still remain high. Demographic growth rates in the first half of the 21st century are lower than in the second half of the 20th. According to the UN average version of the forecast, the increase in the world population from 6 to 7 billion will take 13 years, from 7 to 8 - 14, from 8 to 9 - 17 years. There are other projections that predict a faster slowdown in global population growth. But in any case, in the middle of the 21st century, about 5-7 times more people will live on Earth than at the beginning of the 20th century.

Figure 8

Today, the global demographic problem is the continuing growth of the population in China (today about 1.4 billion inhabitants). Many provinces of the country are overpopulated. The government has a policy of limiting the number of children in families. However, this often leads to the fact that Chinese families hide "excessive" children for the time being, and then send them in search of a better life, including abroad. In those countries where the Chinese move, there are problems of their own. They are connected with the fact that immigrants from the Celestial Empire are practically not amenable to assimilation: the Chinese diasporas live compactly, according to their own laws. Today, there are "Chinatowns" in almost all more or less developed countries.

Recently, demographers have noted even more troubling trends in China's demographics. More and more boys are being born there. If the usual gender balance is expressed as a proportion of 105 men to 100 women, then in China in 2007 it was 117 to 100, respectively. Moreover, the demographic policy of the authorities, aimed at reducing population growth, combined with the traditional desire of every Chinese family to give birth to a boy, only exacerbates this trend. : Parents make the difficult decision to medically dispose of female embryos. At the recent International Congress of Demographers in Tours, France, American scientists presented a forecast that between 2015 and 2030 there will be 25 million more adult men in China than women.

The excess of the male population, especially given the overpopulation of the PRC, means at best "labor migration", the scale of which is comparable to the Great Migration of Nations. This is a real danger as "surplus" boys are already being born in China. Moreover, in this case, the forecast of scientists is calculated just taking into account the fact that the current trends will be weakened. And if, nevertheless, we imagine that the Chinese government, which is aware of the acuteness of the problem, will not be able to cope with population growth, then the "surplus" inhabitants of the Celestial Empire may turn out to be much more than 25 million. After all, the proportion of 117 to 100, when applied to the population of China, gives a preponderance of the male population over the female by more than 100 million people.

The sharp decline in population in developed countries is the most dangerous threat.

This global negative trend will be of the most significant importance for the world community. For Russia, it is acquiring clear features of an impending catastrophe.

Sufficiently rapid aging of the population of these countries will not be compensated by newborns.

Nevertheless, it should be noted that trends are already emerging in the United States that will eliminate or significantly reduce the threat of a demographic crisis.

Rice. 9.

Fig.10.

The downward trend in the number of children in the family has affected almost all industrialized countries.

It is also noticeable that all developed countries are concerned about demographic issues. Some of them were able to overcome these negative trends (an example is the Scandinavian countries).

Fig.11.

The predicted growth in the number of births will take place from 2030-2035.

However, a change in trend will no longer have any positive consequences for a significant number of countries, including Russia.

Fig.12.

According to most forecasts, Russia is the main recipient of the demographic shock among the leading countries of the world.

However, Russia has remained aloof from the challenge of the aging of the nation. So far, Russia can not complain about the demographic burden.

Russia is not among the countries with the oldest population, now in most European countries it is older. According to the latest data published on the UN website, in 2008, among 228 countries of the world, Russia ranks 44th in terms of the proportion of people aged 60 years and older, 33rd in terms of median age, and 30th in terms of the aging index. e. As shown in fig. 13, at present, in terms of the degree of aging, the population of Russia is somewhat younger than the population of Eastern Europe, but significantly younger than the population of other European countries and Japan. As for the comparison with the USA, the median age in Russia is higher, the proportion of the elderly (60 years and older) is about the same, and the proportion of the oldest (80 years and older) is lower. It is for the latter indicator that the differences between Russia and other countries are greatest (see also Table 1).

Figure 13. Median age: comparison of Russia with other countries

Table 1. Characteristics of the population aged 60 and over, 2008

Two factors contribute to the lower proportion of the population aged 80 and over: high mortality over the past four decades and the loss of life of generations that took an active part in World War II. Both factors are primarily important for the male population. It is not surprising, therefore, that Russia has the lowest sex ratio at older ages (Table 1). At the same time, the majority of older people in Russia are married and, with the exception of Japan and the countries of Southern Europe, they are less likely to live alone. The economic activity of the elderly population in Russia is one of the highest in Europe, but significantly lower than in Japan and the United States.

Due to the relative youth of its population, Russia also has the lowest levels of demographic load. But if the burden of the elderly in our country for more than half a century was one of the lowest among the compared countries and regions, then the burden of children, on the contrary, was one of the highest until the early 1990s. It was the sharp drop in the load of children in the 1990s that led to the fact that now the indicator of the total load in Russia has become the lowest for the group under consideration for the entire period since 1950.