The population of Belarus today, according to the statistics committee, is almost nine and a half million people. Among the CIS countries, this is the fifth place after the Russian Federation, Ukraine, as well as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Nevertheless, the population of Belarus exceeds the number of citizens of all (1.3 times), as well as or Denmark (twice). This figure is lower than in Sweden, Austria and Bulgaria. The number of inhabitants of Belarus is approximately equal to the number of citizens in Greece, the Czech Republic, Portugal, Belgium, Yugoslavia and a number of other states.

The period, lasting from the post-war years up to the nineties of the last century, was characterized by a trend towards a constant increase in the population of the country, as a result of which the population of Belarus increased markedly. However, in the last decades of the twentieth century, the rate of increase in the population of the country began to decline markedly.

The economic reforms of the era of perestroika affected many aspects of people's lives. The transition to market relations, the emergence of informal activities, the flourishing of private business, the growth of unemployment - all these factors played a significant role in changing the living conditions of citizens. This also affected the dynamics of the number, composition, and the process of reproduction of people living in the country.

Since 1993, Belarus, whose population began to decline, entered the stage of depopulation. The decrease in the number of citizens occurred due to the excess of the death rate over the birth rate. The result of this process is the country's constant movement towards acquiring the status of a smaller state (in terms of population).

The population of Belarus has a multinational composition. Representatives of one hundred and thirty nationalities live in the state. The main number of citizens are Belarusians. Their share in the total population is eighty-one percent.

The largest percentage of Belarusians live in Minsk and at present their number in the country as a whole is constantly increasing.

The percentage composition of other nationalities has been constantly changing throughout the historical period. It was directly dependent on external and internal factors (migrations, wars, and so on). However, invariably representatives of the second largest group of the population were Russian people. of this nation is equal to eleven percent. Many of the landlords, peasants and officials began to live in Belarus after its annexation to the Russian Empire. During the existence of Soviet power, this ethnic group surpassed the Polish and Jewish in its numbers, which corresponded to the geopolitics of the USSR. At present, the residence of representatives is mainly cities.

The population of Belarus in its northwestern regions is represented by a large proportion of Poles. It makes up almost four percent of the total population of this region. An insignificant level of migration of citizens of Polish nationality was observed in the Middle Ages. To date, most of the representatives of this live in the Grodno region. They do not have any significant differences from the Belarusians in terms of everyday and cultural features.

In recent years, all we hear is that the number of Belarusians should be increased. The government keeps coming up with social benefits for large families. The President is of the same opinion. Asks to give birth even more.

“Belarus can feed 20 million people, and our main task, which is not we, but our children must solve, is 15 million people,” Lukashenka said back in August last year.

And it seems like the last few years, due to the natural birth rate and migration flows from Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan, the results have been quite good ...

In the meantime, the UN released the report "World Population Prospects" with a bitter forecast for the Belarusians.

If in 2017 there were 9 million 468 thousand people in the country, then, according to UN experts, by 2030 there will already be 9 million 163 thousand people, and by 2050 there will be only 8 million 571 thousand people left.

By the way, Bulgaria, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Moldova, Romania, Serbia and Ukraine are on the list of leaders in terms of population reduction.

At the same time, the global trend is reversed. According to data for 2017, there were 7.6 billion people on Earth, and by 2050 there will be 9.7 billion of us. Asia and Africa will try hardest. India will grow the fastest of all. In a year, this country will catch up with China, and the world leaders will have 1.45 billion inhabitants each.

“Belarusians are getting smaller, but not so critical”

But Belarusian researchers have other data.

Our forecasts do not agree with those of the UN. They rely on standard calculated indicators, but every time we use the latest up-to-date data and make new calculations, - says Natalia Privalova, head of the department of demographic forecasts and the balance of labor resources of the NIEI of the Ministry of Economy. - We made a forecast until 2036. And according to these calculations, the population decline will occur insignificantly. In 2036, according to our forecasts, 9 million 425.7 thousand will live in Belarus. Yes, there will be a trend of population decline. But it is moving at a slow pace. And there is an explanation for this. We still feel the echo of the post-war demographic swing. Until the early 1990s, the number of Belarusians was constantly growing due to the previously accumulated demographic potential. In 1993, for the first time in the entire post-war period, mortality exceeded the birth rate, and depopulation began in the country, that is, a reduction in the country's population. In 2000, the number of deaths exceeded the number of births by 1.5 times.

The baby boom had to wait 15 years. In 2015, 119 thousand children were born. This birth rate has not been seen since 1994.

But we must take into account that the period of reduction in the number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years old) has already begun, including the most active - 20-29 years old, who account for almost 60% of all births, - continues Natalia Privalova. - This is the same generation born in the 90s. No matter how much the state encourages, but a small number of women cannot give birth to as many children as the previous large generation.

And yet, according to the expert, everything is not so sad. In Belarus, life expectancy is growing, infant mortality is decreasing, the number of women aged 30-39 is increasing, who account for more than 30% of all births of second and third children...

BY THE WAY

The smallest population decline (from 1999 to 2016) is in the Brest (6.6%) and Gomel (7.9%) regions. In other regions, the reduction is an average of 10%.

The biggest demographic loss is in the Vitebsk region.

20% of the population of Belarus live in Minsk (in 1999 - 16%) and every fifth young person.

Population of Belarus in 1950 - 2017:

The Republic of Belarus in terms of population is in sixth place in the CIS and ranks 92nd in the global list.

According to the data of the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus, the population as of July 1, 2016 amounted to 9498.4 thousand people. The vast majority of the population (almost 80 percent) lives in cities.

Belarus is a state with a low density, especially by the standards of Europe - about 46 people live on one square kilometer of area. The only city with a million inhabitants is the capital of Belarus, Minsk, which is home to almost two million people. All other cities are much smaller.

Belarus is a multinational state, representatives of more than 130 nationalities live on its territory. 81 percent of the population consider themselves Belarusians. Russians are the second largest nation in Belarus. Both languages ​​- Belarusian and Russian - are state languages.

The vast majority of believers profess Orthodox Christianity, while the state is separated from the church and is secular.

According to official statistics, demography in Belarus is going through a protracted crisis. The birth rate is falling, there is no natural increase in the population. Thus, in 1990 the population of the republic was 10,190,000 people. In 1996, this figure was 10,177,000. Currently, it does not even reach 9 and a half million. All these years, the trend of depopulation (natural population decline) has persisted.

However, an encouraging circumstance is a slight slowdown in this trend. So, if in the 1990s and 2000s the size of the decline was several tens of thousands of people annually, then in recent years this negative phenomenon has somewhat stalled, the decline is already in the thousands. For example, in 2015 it amounted to only one thousand people.

The birth rate in Belarus is low at only 9.4 per thousand population, or slightly less than one and a half births per woman. According to this indicator, Belarus is one of the last places in the world ranking (176 out of 195 possible). This indicator is not enough for a positive natural reproduction of the population.

Insignificant profit in the population in the last four years has been provided solely by migration.

The gender ratio is uneven. There are six hundred thousand more women in Belarus than men, while women live almost ten years longer, while a five-year period is considered a natural difference. For such a small state, this figure is very significant.

The 2009 census showed that Belarusian families prefer having few children. One child is present in the vast majority of families (more than 65 percent). Only five percent of families have many children.

The mortality rate is high in Belarus, in the country as a whole it is 12.6 people per thousand of the population, while it varies greatly by region. The lowest death rate is recorded in the capital (9.7 people), the highest - in the Vitebsk and Minsk regions (more than 16 people). In terms of mortality, Belarus ranks 24th in the world. However, one cannot fail to note a fairly stable positive trend. This indicator, for example, in 2002 was 14.9, in 2012 - 13.4, the decline is gradual, but stable, which gives hope for further improvement in the situation in this area.

Also, one of the positive aspects should be noted and the increase in life expectancy over the past twenty years. So, if in 1995 it was only 68.6 years, in 2005 - 68.8 years, then in 2015 the duration increased significantly and amounted to 73.9 years.

Every year about 80,000 marriages are concluded in Belarus, while more than 32,000 are dissolved, thus, almost every third marriage breaks up.

Against the backdrop of the global economic crisis, the standard of living of the population of Belarus is systematically decreasing. Thus, the average monthly salary for January-June 2016 amounted to almost 700 denominated Belarusian rubles (7 million non-denominated), which is approximately 350 US dollars. This level of wages is only 96 percent of the level for the same period last year. The real incomes of the population are also declining, the purchasing power of the national currency is also falling. Against the background of a general decline in income, the standard of living of the population is also deteriorating sharply.

State support for the socially unprotected population is scanty. Thus, the amount of monthly social allowance for low-income families is approximately 15 US dollars, one-time targeted assistance - 40 US dollars.

The situation is much better in the area of ​​state support for motherhood and childhood. Thus, at the birth of the first child from August 1, 2016, a lump-sum benefit in the amount of 1,755 Belarusian rubles is paid, which is equivalent to about 880 US dollars. For the second and subsequent children, the state pays a lump sum of 2,457 rubles ($1,234). Child care allowance is paid to a woman up to three years, and not up to one and a half, as in many CIS countries. For the first child, the allowance is 35 percent of the average quarterly wage (approximately $115), for the second and subsequent children it is 40 percent of the average wage (approximately $130).

These facts testify to the desire of the state to change for the better the demographic situation in the country, to achieve population growth due to its natural increase. And in this area it is impossible not to note some successes. Despite the negative values ​​of growth so far, the rate of depopulation, as noted above, has decreased in recent years, Belarus is approaching a positive value of natural growth.

In the presence of such a demographic policy, serious state support for motherhood and childhood, and the adoption of exceptional measures to stimulate the birth rate, there is confidence that all the demographic problems that have accumulated in Belarus in recent years will be resolved soon.

The article was prepared by specialists of SoyuzPravoInform LLC.

Demography- this is a science that studies the number, composition, reproduction, development, migration and other aspects of the life of the population.

The subject of demographic research are:

• total population;
• age and gender structure of society;
• national, religious and linguistic composition;
• life expectancy, actual and perceived;
• general and natural population growth;
• migration;
• number, time, age of marriages and divorces;
• professional and educational composition of the society;
• income levels of population groups and individuals;
• the health status of the population.

This is not a complete list, the development of demography follows the development of society.

The first recorded attempts to comprehend the processes that we now call "demographic" were recorded in the works of philosophers two more - two and a half thousand years ago. However, none of the theories had a wide practical application. In practice, the rulers were only interested in increasing the birth rate of their subjects, guided by the principle: more people - more taxes; more soldiers - stronger army.

Since the 18th century, there has been a population explosion in the world. With the development of medicine and technology, disease and famine no longer hold back population growth.

For the first time, the assertion that natural population growth overtakes production growth was made by Thomas Robert Malthus in the early 19th century. It caused a lot of criticism, but was accepted rather than refuted by science.

Interest in demographic issues increased in the second half of the 19th and early 20th centuries and was dictated by the understanding of the impossibility of further extensive development.

There are two global demographic trends in the modern world:

• the traditionally high birth rate, which is not supported by a corresponding increase in production, in poor countries. As a result - growth and social instability;
• low birth rates in economically prosperous societies, carrying the threat of aging and extinction.

The most ambitious and effective system of measures to reduce population growth can be called the "one family - one child" program in China. Something similar is being done in India and some other states, but with much less success.

On the other hand, in countries with a high standard of living and education, social policy consists in stimulating the birth rate, due to the aging of the population, the lack of “labor hands” to continue economic growth. However, efforts in this direction are rarely successful enough.

Demographics of Belarus

In 1994, the maximum population of Belarus was recorded - 10,243,500 people. After that, the population decreased annually until 2013, reaching an indicator of 9,463,800 people. From 2013 to 2017, an increase in the population was recorded, primarily due to migration. Currently, there is a decrease in the population.

To illustrate the demographic situation in the Republic of Belarus, one can consider tables compiled according to Belstat information:

1) Until 2017, men aged 16-59 and women aged 16-54 were included in the working-age population.
Starting from the beginning of 2018, men and women from the age of 16 to the generally established retirement age are included in the working-age population.

As shown by the latest population censuses in 1999 and 2009, and operational research data, Belarus currently has all the problems of a developed, urbanized, aging, shrinking society in terms of demographic processes. Unfortunately, the material resources to compensate for such processes in our country are not comparable to what rich European states have. The natural decline in the population is not fully balanced by the birth rate, and the migration increase is also not particularly large. In recent years, the state has taken some measures to stimulate the birth rate, they are growing, with the birth of each child, repayment is facilitated. Perhaps this explains some improvement in fertility rates in 2014-2017, it remains to be hoped that this is a long-term trend.

According to Belstat, as of January 1, 2019, the population of the Republic of Belarus in Belarus amounted to 9,475,600 people. For comparison, for the same period in 2018, the population of the country was 9,491,800 people. Thus, during the year it decreased by 16,200 people.

About 1.99 million people live in Minsk at the beginning of 2019.

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According to Belstat, the population of Belarus as of January 1, 2015, according to preliminary data, amounted to 9 million 481 thousand people and increased by 12.8 thousand people compared to the beginning of 2014.

The natural population decline in 2014 amounted to 2.9 thousand people. The migration increase amounted to 15.7 thousand people and compensated for the natural decline, ensuring an increase in the population.

For the first time since 1993, the population of Belarus increased in 2013. The main factors due to which there were more Belarusians both in 2014 and in 2013, despite the still high mortality rate, are an increase in the number of births and migration growth.

According to Belstat, in 2014, 118,697 children were born in Belarus, in 2013 - 118,463 children (in 2012 - 114,999). An increase in the birth rate in the country has been noted since 2004, and in 2007 the number of children born for the first time in many years exceeded one hundred thousand - 103,626 children.

Migration growth in 2014 increased by 35% compared to the previous year. A significant contribution to this indicator was made by citizens of Ukraine who left their homes due to hostilities.

And yet, according to the forecast of demographers, in the next 15 years the population of Belarus will decrease. Naviny.by was informed about this in the resource center of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).

The reduction in the country's population will occur due to negative natural growth. According to forecast estimates, rural areas will suffer the greatest demographic losses, while the situation in cities will be more favorable.

According to the forecast, by 2030 the urban population will increase by 2.6% (from 7.22 million to 7.41 million people), and its share. At the same time, the rural population is expected to decrease by almost 400,000 people over the forecast period, to reach 1.85 million people in 2030. Moreover, the population will decrease in all regions, with the exception of Minsk, whose population will increase at a slow pace.

At the same time, the Resource Center notes that Belarus is characterized by one of the highest birth rates in its region. The total fertility rate in Belarus is 1.7 per woman. Currently, there is an increase in the total fertility rate. However, as before, it does not ensure the level of simple reproduction of the population in the country.

Experts note that the so-called features of European reproductive behavior among the population of Belarus have recently become noticeable. This is manifested in the desire of the population for self-realization, career growth, high standards of consumption.

Like many European countries, Belarus is characterized by a tendency to increase the average age of women at the birth of their first child. In 2013, the average age of a woman at the birth of a child was 28 years (at the birth of her first child - 25.4 years). For comparison: in Italy - 31.4, in Japan - 31.3.

There is also a tendency to increase the average age at first marriage: for women - 25 years, for men - 27.1 years.

In terms of the birth rate in Belarus, there are some territorial features. Thus, there is some difference in the birth rate among the urban and rural population (12.4 and 11.8 per thousand, respectively). There are differences in fertility and by region. Regional differentiation is associated primarily with the level of socio-economic development of the regions, the established traditions that have determined the corresponding demographic behavior, cultural and religious characteristics.

Thus, the highest value of the total birth rate is typical for the Brest, Gomel, Minsk regions and Minsk.

"In a developed industrial society, children have to study for a long time in order to obtain qualifications that meet modern requirements. To ensure appropriate conditions, adults prefer fewer children, but a better quality of life. In an agrarian society, children, working together with their parents, acquired the necessary labor skills naturally,- noted in UNFPA.